I have observed many cycles in the market over the past 35 years. Yes, sure, the market goes up over time and if you are a passive investor and never look at anything, you probably have done very well over that period. However, with stockpicking, there are many nuances and pitfalls that I have seen and there is a quiet mistake many retail investors make. They think they are investing in companies. In reality, they are trading the market. They say they are long-term. Yet they wake up checking futures. They build opinions around CPI, Federal Reserve commentary, bond yields, positioning, and whatever narrative dominates the week. Sadly, nowadays, the news usually comes from social media. The business they invested in becomes secondary. That confusion is expensive.
Markets are designed to be volatile. They respond instantly to liquidity, sentiment, and positioning. Businesses do not change that quickly. Capital allocation decisions unfold over years. Incentives shape behavior gradually. Balance sheets strengthen or weaken across cycles, not headlines.
