Soon after voting concluded for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly polls, the predictions were out, some with caution after the Haryana and Lok Sabha debacles.
In Maharashtra, if most exit polls are to be believed, the Mahayuti – comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – is set for a win. And in Jharkhand, at least two pollsters suggested the NDA has a marginal edge in a neck-and-neck contest.
Meanwhile, Axis My India refrained from making any predictions for Maharashtra, with Pradeep Gupta announcing on News18 that he needed another day to collate data. Otherwise the most well-known pollster in the country, Gupta’s predictions were wildly off the mark for the Lok Sabha and Haryana polls this year.
Axis My India wasn’t the only one. Most pollsters had erroneously predicted a huge majority for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and a victory for the Congress in the Haryana elections.
Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had asked the electronic media to “self-introspect” on the expectations that exit polls lead to. On several TV channels on Wednesday, pollsters, anchors, and panelists asked viewers to take exit poll numbers “with a pinch of salt”.
In the first assembly elections after the split of the two largest regional parties in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance had contested against the Maha Vikas Aghadi, consisting of the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The majority mark in the 288-member assembly in Maharashtra is 145.
Two notable exceptions to the predictions in the state were the numbers by Dainik Bhaskar and Electoral Edge. Bhaskar has projected 135 to 150 seats to the MVA, and 125 to 140 seats for the NDA. Electoral Edge, on the other hand, has estimated 150 seats for MVA, with 60 for the Congress, 44 for Shiv Sena UBT, and 46 for NCP SP.
The others predicted a larger share for the NDA camp.
Chanakya Strategy predicted 152 to 160 seats for Mahayuti, with BJP winning over 90 seats, Shiv Sena over 48, and NCP over 22. It gave 130 to 138 seats to MVA, with Congress getting over 63 seats, Shiv Sena UBT over 35, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP over 40.
Matrize too gave the Mahayuti 150 to 170 seats: 89 to 101 for the BJP, 37 to 45 for Shiv Sena, and 17 to 26 for NCP. It gave MVA 110 to 130 seats, with Congress getting over 39 to 47, Shiv Sena UBT 21 to 29, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP 35 to 43.
Lokshahi-Rudra exit poll, which last time gave accurate predictions, has predicted a neck-and-neck fight. It estimated 128 to 142 seats for Mahayuti and 125 to 140 seats for the MVA. It has projected 80 to 85 seats for the BJP, 30 to 35 for Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, 18 to 22 for the NCP, 48 to 55 seats for the Congress, 39 to 43 seats for Shiv Sena UBT, and 38 to 42 seats for the NCP SP.
P-Marq projected 135 to 157 seats for the Mahayuti, and 126 to 146 seats for the MVA. People’s Pulse has predicted a huge victory for the Mahayuti with 175 to 195 seats, and a big loss for the MVA with 85 to 112 seats.
In 2019, most pollsters had predicted a landslide victory for BJP and the Shiv Sena. The results saw BJP win 105 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 56 seats. On the other side, the undivided NCP won 54 seats and Congress 44 seats.
In Jharkhand, a tight race
Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, where 41 seats are needed to stake claim to power in the 81-seat assembly, several pollsters predicted a hung house amid a tight race. At least two suggested the NDA alliance had an edge while Axis My India predicted a clear win for the JMM-led INDIA alliance.
Matrize pegged the NDA tally anywhere around 42 to 47 while estimating 25 to 30 wins for the JMM-led alliance. Peoples Pulse gave 44 to 53 to the NDA while suggesting a tally around 25 to 37 for the Hemant Soren camp. Times Now-JVC predicted 40 to 44 seats for the NDA camp while giving 30 to 40 seats to the JMM fold. P-Marq put the NDA projection at 31 to 40 while predicting 37 to 47 seats for the INDIA bloc. Dainik Bhaskar gave 37 to 40 to the NDA while projecting 36 to 39 for the INDIA bloc.
A 68 percent voter turnout was recorded until 5 pm in the second phase of voting on Wednesday.
The JMM-led alliance had clinched the 2019 assembly elections. No party has won a majority of its own in the five assemblies elected in the state so far.
Votes will be counted on Saturday for both the states.
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