The attack on Moscow’s Crocus City concert hall is the deadliest attack claimed by the Islamic State (IS) on European soil, with 137 people confirmed to have been killed.
On Friday evening, attackers carrying assault rifles entered the concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow, shooting for nearly an hour as panicked concertgoers scrambled to escape. Then the attackers set the venue on fire.
The death toll is slightly higher than the devastating Paris attacks of 2015, which came at the height of the IS’s power.
Since Friday, events have moved quickly, with four suspects – identified as citizens of Tajikistan by a Russian news agency – appearing in court on Sunday, pleading guilty to being involved.
Questions remain, however: the shape that President Vladimir Putin’s response will take is unclear, while experts are seeking to explain the precise motive for the attack.
Why would IS attack Russia?
There are practical, historical and ideological reasons why IS would attack Russia.
IS leaders have long seen attacks against distant targets as an integral part of their extremist project. Such operations – when successful – terrorise their enemies but also mobilise existing supporters and attract new ones.
Often, targets are determined by what resources are available. Nine years ago, a cohort of French and Belgian recruits in Syria led to a wave of attacks in both countries. In the past 18 months, IS has made a concerted effort to recruit central Asian militants through its Afghan branch, known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Being Russian speaking, or even Russian nationals, these recruits can easily reach a target in Moscow, offering multiple new opportunities for attacks.
Russia has been in the cross-hairs of IS for many years. IS leaders, like many Islamic militants, are mindful of Russian support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. A key point made by IS propaganda from Pakistan to Nigeria is that Moscow is part of the broader coalition of Christian or western forces engaged in an existential, 1,400-year-old battle against Islam.
IS statements claiming responsibility for the attack boasted of “killing Christians”.
Leaders of ISKP may also see Russia as supportive of the continued rule of the Taliban, which has repressed them. They will also remember brutal Soviet military operations in Afghanistan in the 1980s and “the Jihad” waged by their fathers or grandfathers against Moscow’s forces. Russia’s bloody war in Chechnya in 1999 may be a factor too.
What will Russia’s response be?
Many terrorist attacks seek to provoke a powerful repressive response from authorities, with the aim of further escalating violence. If this was part of the IS plan for Moscow, they are unlikely to be disappointed.
Russian authorities’ interrogation of the suspects appears to have been particularly brutal.
Videos circulating of their interrogations suggest that the men were tortured; one of the videos appears to show members of the security forces cutting off the ear of a suspect and then stuffing it into his mouth.
In court, all of the suspects appeared heavily bruised with swollen faces. One of them was brought to court directly from hospital in a wheelchair. He was attended by medics and was seen with multiple cuts.
Putin has vowed to punish those behind the “barbaric terrorist attack” – and Muslim minorities in Russia are likely to face a wave of repression.
In the Russian ruler’s only public remarks on the massacre he made no reference to IS’s claims of responsibility.
Instead, despite IS claiming the attack and releasing footage to corroborate those claims, Russia has still sought to place some blame on Ukraine.
On Saturday, Putin claimed without evidence that the four arrested gunmen planned to flee to Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Putin and others close to him are seeking to divert the blame from Russian intelligence failings.
The US has said it received intelligence that ISKP acted alone.
Will the death toll rise?
As of the Monday after the attack, emergency workers said they were continuing to search for anyone who may be left wounded or dead inside the severely damaged concert hall. The death toll rose multiple times over the weekend as more bodies were found.
Many families were left not knowing if relatives present at the concert hall on Friday night were alive. Igor Pogadaev told the AP news agency that he was desperately seeking any details of his wife’s whereabouts after she went to the concert and stopped responding to his messages.
Pogodaev said he scoured hospitals in the Russian capital and the broader Moscow region, looking for information on newly admitted patients. But his wife was not among those reported injured or on the list of victims identified so far, he said.
Moscow’s health department said on Sunday it had begun using DNA testing to identify the bodies of those killed, a process that would take at least two weeks.
Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report
