Morning, everyone. The harsh reality of this week’s latest interest rate rise is that thousands of Australians are facing ever-higher monthly repayments. And many who managed to secure fixed-rate terms are about to roll over to much higher variable deals. We speak to a family peering anxiously over the “mortgage cliff” and we report on the rising the risk of a recession. We also have an exclusive on an explosive letter sent by Paul Keating to the cabinet, the latest on Canadian wildfires blanketing across North America in smoke, plus Australia have made hay in the London sunshine on day one of the World Test cricket final.
Australia
‘Terrible decision’ | Former prime minister Paul Keating wrote to the Albanese cabinet to warn about what he sees as the “dangerous” policy of aligning with the US and UK against China in the Pacific, hours before he went public with his concerns, an FOI request reveals.
Dam risk | The integrity of Sydney’s main dam is at risk under “extreme and rare flooding scenarios” based on a reassessment of the impact of climate change and a better understanding of a “weak” geological seam under the dam wall.
Rates rise | “It is going to be a massive, massive struggle,” says Jack Lynch, who moved to the Blue Mountains outside Sydney for a more affordable mortgage but now faces a rise in repayments of $2,000 a month as the family’s fixed rate deal expires. An average loan of $576,985 will require $15,000 extra a year. It’s no surprise that economists think Australia is already in a “retail recession” as consumers rein in spending, risking a broader slump later this year.
Corruption question | The Liberal senator Linda Reynolds says she may raise a government compensation payment made to her former staffer Brittany Higgins with the new anti-corruption commission, highlighting concerns about the speed of the process.
Nazi ban | The federal government will ban Nazi symbols with a punishment of up to a year in prison but it will not ban the Nazi salute, the attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, has revealed.
World
‘Out of control’ | Hundreds of wildfires are burning across Canada, many of them out of control, causing cities across the country and into the US to be blanketed in a thick haze of smoke, amid warnings from experts the situation will continue to worsen.
Dam destruction | The fields of southern Ukraine could “turn into deserts” by next year thanks to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, officials warned, while satellite images reveal the extent of the disaster.
Pence launch | Mike Pence has launched his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination with a speech in Iowa, as he attempts to go from Donald Trump’s loyal vice-president to nemesis.
‘Absolute scandal’ | The United Arab Emirates’ state oil company has been able to read emails to and from the Cop28 climate summit office and was consulted on how to respond to a media inquiry, the Guardian has learned, bringing criticism from around the world.
Labour lead | The UK Labour party is on course to clinch a landslide majority of 140 at the next general election, according to modelling based on a megapoll of new constituency boundaries.
Full Story
How are police, the courts and the media handling Bruce Lehrmann’s case?
Criminal charges against Bruce Lehrmann have been dropped and he has spoken publicly for the first time. Christopher Knaus and Nino Bucci explain what we are still learning about this case.
In-depth
More than a third of Sydney and Adelaide suburbs and a quarter in Brisbane are affordable only to the most wealthy, and Hobart and Melbourne are following a similar path, according to our analysis of census data on income and housing costs. Find out how your suburb has been affected. It also shows how outer suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney have become homelessness hotspots, and how essential workers in NSW are being priced out.
Not the news
Back in the 1980s the beauty industry made a lot of money out of colour analysis, whereby people would pay consultants to come to their home, drape them in different coloured fabrics and determine which shades made them “pop” based on skin tone. Now the technique is having a revival thanks to its use by a new generation on TikTok. Katie Cunningham investigates.
The world of sport
Cricket | Australia finished the first day of the World Test Championship final against India in a strong position after Travis Head’s unbeaten 146 helped his side to 3-327 at stumps at the Oval.
Football | Real Madrid have sealed an initial deal to buy Jude Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund for €103m ($110m), while Lionel Messi has spurned Barcelona and Saudi millions to sign for Inter Miami in the MLS.
Golf | Rory McIlroy admitted he felt like a “sacrificial lamb” and still “hated” LIV Golf as he responded to the shock declaration of peace in golf’s civil war, although the breakaway star Bryson DeChambeau defended the Saudi league.
Media roundup
Soaring corporate profits have more to do with inflation than wage rises, according to international research cited by the Age that challenges the official view of the Reserve Bank. More name changes are on the way in Queensland, the Courier-Mail says, after Fraser Island reverted to its traditional name, K’gari. A five-metre-long olive python shocked diners at an outdoor dining experience, with the owner saying it was the biggest he’d ever seen, the NT News reports.
What’s happening today
Politics | Jim Chalmers is in Wellington for a climate and finance summit with New Zealand ministers.
Sydney | The judge-alone trial of Chris Dawson continues on a charge of carnal knowledge.
Hobart | The opening night of the Dark Mofo festival celebrates the darkness of the southern winter solstice.
Sign up
If you would like to receive this Morning Mail update to your email inbox every weekday, sign up here. And finish your day with a three-minute snapshot of the day’s main news. Sign up for our Afternoon Update newsletter here.
Prefer notifications? If you’re reading this in our app, just click here and tap “Get notifications” on the next screen for an instant alert when we publish every morning.
Brain teaser
And finally, here are the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
