Morgan Stanley Sees Amazon Stock Surging 100% with AWS Hitting $1 Trillion in Revenue Sooner Than People Think

Morgan Stanley has named Amazon (AMZN) its Top Pick and reiterated its “Overweight” rating. The bank cited the long-term growth potential of Prime, e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising. But Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley’s analyst, argues that AI may be the most overlooked driver of future growth. He believes it could drive AWS revenue to $1 trillion and eventually double Amazon’s share price.

Reaching that outcome would require rapid growth. After accounting for higher Nvidia (NVDA) GPU shipments, Nowak expects AWS revenue to grow 47% in 2027 and 42% in 2028. If the business also maintains strong margins, it could qualify as a “Rule of 90” business, with its growth rate and margin totaling 90%. Under this scenario, the company’s 2028 earnings per share would rise to about $16.50.