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Fortune
Fortune
Alena Botros

Morgan Stanley analysts think commercial real estate is heading for something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’—here’s what Goldman Sachs and UBS have to say

Businessman sitting on office floor surrounded by crumpled paper (Credit: Getty Images)

Following the failures of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, all eyes have been on commercial real estate (CRE), with some sounding the alarm, claiming it’s the next shoe to drop. As Fortune has previously reported, commercial real estate lending standards were already tightening up over the past year as the Federal Reserve flipped into inflation-fighting mode. The ongoing bank troubles, however, will only exacerbate that tightening.

Even before the banks went under, experts within the sector knew it would be a challenging time for commercial real estate, particularly for office properties with rising vacancy rates and falling property values, amid the shift to remote work. Not to mention, the entire sector faces a wave of loan maturities—meaning they'll need to refinance to higher interest rates.

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