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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Morgan poll has One Nation surging at Coalition’s expense; Trump’s net approval in negative double digits

One Nation continues to surge after the Bondi terror attack, as a Morgan poll has them gaining six points at the Coalition’s expense.

A national Australian Morgan poll, conducted January 12–18 from a sample of 1,630, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the January 5–11 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 28.5% Labor (down 1.5), 24% Coalition (down 6.5), 21% One Nation (up six), 13.5% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor.

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