PUNE: The monsoon flow has weakened over the Arabian Sea, stalling its advance over parts of India by almost six days now, a top Met department official from Delhi told TOI on Monday. With the monsoon weakening, the countrywide rainfall deficit for the season has hit 38%, IMD data showed.
"Rather than the typical monsoon features over central India, we are witnessing convective rainfall pattern over this region. Presence of an anti-cyclone over central parts of India is not a good sign for monsoon advancement. We are not seeing typical monsoon circulation features, as the Arabian Sea current has been weak," the IMD official told TOI.
The official said the ongoing slow monsoon progress could not be termed as a "break in monsoon", as it has still not covered the entire country.
The northern parts of the country were also being affected with consecutive western disturbances, with marginal southward penetration, not a typical feature of the monsoon advancement stage, the official said.
"Isolated parts of south peninsular India are lately witnessing convective rain, which too isn't a typical monsoon feature. The east-west spatial rainfall continuity needed to advance monsoon is missing from these parts," the official said.
Monsoon progress slows down, rain deficit at 38%
The official said wind circulation features seen currently were not supporting further monsoon advancement as of now. "By June 6, monsoon should have covered some more parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh etc, which hasn't happened so far. This is, however, near-normal monsoon behaviour and isn't a significant delay in advancement, considering that monsoon advanced over Kerala and northeast India earlier than usual this year," the official said.
These conditions have, however, now cast uncertainty over when the monsoon will start advancing further and its likely dates of onset over extreme southern parts of Maharashtra, which normally occurs around June 9. IMD is currently keeping a close watch on monsoon advancement and will issue updates as and when the situation improves.
Monsoon had last advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, some parts of Karnataka, Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, entire southeast Bay of Bengal, some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, most parts of eastcentral Bay of Bengal, some parts of westcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal on May 31.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather forecasting division, IMD, Pune, told TOI, "We are expecting pre-monsoon rainfall activity after a couple of days in parts of Maharashtra. After around 48 hours, pre-monsoon activity will commence in southern parts of the state. Rainfall activity over south Konkan-Goa & adjacent ghats of madhya Maharashtra are likely to increase from June 8 evening. First pre-monsoon showers have to start in the state, then something can be said with certainty about likely onset dates over Mumbai, Pune and other parts of Maharashtra."
