Good morning. Shock news from France: Emmanuel Macron has called snap parliamentary elections – beginning in just three weeks – after the president’s centrist alliance suffered a crushing defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the European parliament elections.
You can catch up on Macron’s TV address to the nation here, and follow the results and reaction from across the EU here. We will dive deeply into what the election means for the future of Europe in tomorrow’s newsletter.
For now, let’s turn to the UK’s election. Labour and the Conservatives have been at war over how much tax they would make us pay, and what public services would have to swallow a cut in funding.
Rishi Sunak, who is attempting to reset this week after his disastrous decision to leave the D-day ceremonies early, has repeatedly claimed households will face a £2,000 tax hike under a Labour government.
Labour has repeatedly denied it – cue repeated ill-tempered clashes. Sunak attributed the estimate to “independent Treasury officials”, despite the top Treasury civil servant saying the Conservatives’ assessment of Labour’s tax plans “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service”.
This week, we should actually find out how much the major parties plan to raise in tax and spend on services as they publish their manifestos. So when are the manifestos published and what promises can we expected? We have all as many details as possible, after the headlines:
Five big stories
EU elections | In Germany and Austria, parties on the populist right made stunning gains in the European elections – but despite that, the pro-European centre appeared to have held in a set of results likely to complicate EU lawmaking. In France, Emmanuel Macron called snap legislative elections after a crushing defeat of his allies by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
Michael Mosley | The wife of the British TV presenter has confirmed the “devastating” news that her husband has been found dead on the Greek island of Symi. Dr Clare Bailey said she and the couple’s four children took comfort in the fact that he “had almost made it”, after his body was found close to a coastal resort on Sunday.
India elections | Narendra Modi has been sworn in as prime minister of India for a historic third term, ushering in a new era of coalition politics for India’s strongman leader. The ceremony marked Modi’s return to power as only the second leader in India’s history to win three consecutive terms.
Israel-Gaza war | The Israeli politician and former military chief Benny Gantz has resigned from Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, leaving the prime minister more reliant than ever on the far right. “Netanyahu is preventing us from progressing towards a true victory,” Gantz said in a televised address. “For this reason we are leaving the emergency government today, with a heavy heart, yet wholeheartedly.”
Economy | Unemployment is rising in the UK at the fastest pace among 38 of the world’s richest countries, according to an analysis by the Trades Union Congress (TUC).
In depth: From ‘no surprises’ to national service, what are parties offering?
Labour’s manifesto is expected to be revealed on Thursday at a swing seat in the so-called red wall. It was signed off at the party’s “clause V” meeting on Friday, attended by the shadow cabinet, union representatives and the national executive committee (NEC). (Find out more about what a clause V meeting is and what happens at it here.)
However, Unite, Labour’s biggest trade union backer, refused to endorse the manifesto. Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said it crossed “red lines” over the blocking of new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, and the dilution of earlier promises on workers’ rights.
The key line from Starmer will be “no surprises”, particularly on tax. The party has already promised to match the Conservatives’ pledge not to raise any of the Treasury’s three big taxes: income tax, national insurance and VAT.
“All of our plans are fully costed, fully funded, and none of them involve tax rises over and above those that we’ve already set out,” Starmer told Sky News over the weekend. He has, however, refused to rule out spending cuts. “We are not returning to austerity, we will grow our economy, that will start by stabilising our economy.”
He said he wanted the manifesto to “be a story about the future of the country, and to provide the winning platform for that election”.
The manifesto is expected to build on Starmer’s five missions for government announced last year: the economy, the NHS, energy, education and planning reform.
In an early reveal, the party has today promised to create more than 100,000 new nursery places for children from nine months old. There will also be a commitment to creating 20,000 more prison places.
Labour also confirmed that the manifesto will include a recognition of Palestinian statehood as part of any Middle East peace process. “That needs to be part of the process, it’s very important we have a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel,” Starmer said.
A fear for some in the party is that failing to win Unite’s support for the manifesto could lead the union to cut its financial support for the party during the campaign. Last year it warned there would be “no blank cheques” for the party as it asked for “bolder” policies. Unite donated £3m to Labour’s 2019 campaign.
***
The Conservatives’ crusade on ‘sicknote culture’
The Conservatives have not set a date for their manifesto release, but Penny Mordaunt said at the BBC debate on Friday that it would be released this week and would include pledges “to cut people’s taxes and … alleviate burdens on business”.
Its key pledges are expected to lurch further to the right as the party tries to keep voters who might be tempted to switch allegiance to Reform and Nigel Farage.
There will be a promise to impose an annual cap on immigration visas to cut the number of foreign workers and dependants allowed to enter the UK. It comes as figures show net migration hit a record high of 764,000 in 2022, a figure Farage promised to reduce to zero.
The Conservative party will also promise it can save £12bn a year from the welfare bill by 2030 through a “moral mission” to end “sicknote culture” and get more people into work. “Reforming welfare is a moral mission,” Sunak said over the weekend. “Work is a source of dignity, purpose and hope and I want everyone to be able to overcome whatever barriers they might face to living independent, fulfilling lives.”
The number of people inactive for health reasons has increased by 33% to 2.8 million since the pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Sunak reckons a £730m increase in mental health treatment via NHS England will get a lot of those people back into the workforce.
However, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said achieving £12bn of savings “looks difficult to the extreme”.
In other measures designed to woo older and right-leaning voters, the Conservatives have already promised that the state pension will never be taxed; to ban universities offering “Mickey Mouse” degrees; and – in a much talked about move – to bring back national service for 18-year-olds.
Sunak is expected to slip out a few more policies during his party leader interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson at 8pm tonight. Over the next few weeks, Robinson will conduct set piece interviews with the leaders of all the main parties, however no date has been set for an interview with Starmer.
***
Lib Dems to fund £5bn NHS pledge by closing billionaire tax loopholes
Ed Davey – the UK’s most purposefully calamitous party leader – will reveal the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto today (Monday). It will also pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, while promising to invest £5bn a year more in the NHS.
The Lib Dems claim they can fund the extra investment – paying for 8,000 more GPs and a guarantee 100% of patients will start cancer treatment within 62 days of an urgent referral – by closing capital gains tax loopholes the party claims are “exploited by approximately the top 0.1% wealthiest individuals in the country”.
The party will claim that 14,000 multimillionaires used the loophole to pay less than half the top rate of income tax on their combined £60bn income. “The Liberal Democrats will rescue health and social care services by making tax fairer, with billionaires and big banks asked to pay their fair share,” Davey says.
Don’t forget to sign up for Archie’s Election Edition newsletter for the essential take on everything that will happen today, and every week day until 5 July.
What else we’ve been reading
Some AI deepfakes are hilariously obvious to spot – others, however, can be terrifyingly convincing. Rachel Leingang spoke with Siwei Lyu, a computer scientist who made a detection tool, about what to look out for when you suspect photos, videos or audio have been doctored. Nimo
I have always wondered how parakeets found their way into parks and gardens across the UK. This piece by Stephen Moss explores the theories, including that they were released in Carnaby Street by a stoned Jimi Hendrix. Unfortunately the true explanation is a little more mundane – still, click to find out. Rupert
As Inside No 9 bows out, Daniel Dylan Wray speaks to Steve Pemberton, Reece Shearsmith and more about making the predictably unpredictable hit. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
As the Conservatives try to reintroduce national service, Michael Segalov speaks to eight conscientious objectors – from a 20-year-old Israeli to a 99-year-old Briton – about why they refused to serve in the military. Rupert
“Good technique in dance is someone who can urinate on cue”: Guardian European culture editor Philip Oltermann caught up with boundary-pushing choreographer Florentina Holzinger, who revels in bringing everything from BDSM to bodily fluids to the stage. Hannah
Sport
French Open | Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz beat Alex Zverev 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 in 4hr 19min and became the youngest man to win majors on all surfaces. Iga Świątek, the world No 1, secured her fifth grand slam title in 68 minutes by defeating Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-1.
Cricket | Pakistan’s batters undid their bowlers’ good work as they failed to chase a target of 120 to lose to India by six runs at the T20 World Cup.
Formula One | Max Verstappen extended his title lead over Charles Leclerc to 56 points as Lando Norris’s charge was halted in Paris by the safety car intervening.
The front pages
“Macron calls snap election after surge of far right” says the Guardian’s splash headline this Monday morning. The Daily Telegraph has “Macron trounced in rightwing EU surge” and the Times goes with “Tories must embrace Farage, says Braverman”. “Labour yet to convince voters on key policy areas, poll shows” – that’s the i while the Financial Times also leads on politics: “Labour throws out proposal to bring back lifetime cap on tax-free pensions”. The Daily Express says “Heartbroken wife of TV doctor: he so nearly made it” and the Daily Mail has “My brilliant husband Michael so very nearly made it”. “He so very nearly made it” is also the line that the Daily Mirror picks up on. And finally the Metro: “Heartbreak as TV doc’s body found”.
Today in Focus
Magic Dave: David Copperfield’s alleged victims speak out – part 1
The celebrated American magician David Copperfield has been accused by 16 women of engaging in sexual misconduct and inappropriate behaviour, according to a Guardian US investigation. Michael Safi, Lucy Osborne and Stephanie Kirchgaessner report on the allegations, which Copperfield denies.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
After a stroke in 2018, Rose Chin was left partially paralysed. She was in hospital for months battling complications and trying to regain strength, after being left so weak that she could not even use a wheelchair.
Chin’s situation started to change when she started therapy, and was encouraged to talk to other people about her struggles. She opened up to a social worker, who recommended she try wheelchair basketball. Chin eventually joined a 10-person team and began attending weekly training sessions. The group became a little family, she said – and the sport invigorated her. Now, at 67, she has taken on a personal trainer and has started a weightlifting regime. “I used to feel so isolated but now I’m part of something,” she says. “I’m doing things I didn’t even do when I was able-bodied, so it’s definitely changed the way I see myself. I’m not embarrassed about being in a wheelchair any more.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
