Good morning.
It is now “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the warmest year in recorded history. And just like 2023, the past 12 months have been characterised by extreme weather events – from cyclones in Australia to wildfires in Brazil to last month’s lethal floods in Spain – made more intense and more frequent by the climate crisis.
Tens of thousands of delegates have gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan for Cop29, the UN’s annual climate conference, hoping to chart a course for limiting further damage. This year’s conference opens just days after Donald Trump – who has dismissed global heating as a “hoax” and a “scam” – won the US presidential election, casting a long shadow over the 10 days of negotiations ahead.
This year’s summit has been dubbed the “finance Cop”, as the focus will primarily be on how much funding will be directed to developing nations to help them manage climate impacts, reduce emissions and transition to greener economies.
Will the world pay up? For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Guardian environment editor Fiona Harvey (on her way to Baku) to explore what’s in store at Cop29. But first, the headlines.
Five big stories
US election | Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Arizona, completing the Republicans’ clean sweep of the so-called swing states and rubbing salt in Democrats’ wounds as it was announced that the president-elect is scheduled to meet with Joe Biden at the White House on Wednesday to discuss the presidential handover. Trump reportedly spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin on Thursday and discussed the war in Ukraine, telling the Russian ruler not to escalate the conflict and reminding him of “Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe”.
House of Lords | The Liberal Democrats will try to hijack the government’s bill to ban Lords from inheriting their seats in parliament this week in an attempt to force a vote on an entirely elected upper chamber. MPs are expected to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the Labour legislation but the Lib Dems want to go drastically further.
Immigration and asylum| A Home Office artificial intelligence tool that proposes enforcement action against adult and child migrants could make it too easy for officials to rubberstamp automated life-changing decisions, campaigners have said.
Health | The government is likely to offer a financial lifeline to the hospice sector amid fears end-of-life care providers are at risk of closure due to the double blow of the employers’ national insurance rise and higher wage bills, the Guardian understands.
Nursing | Increasing numbers of UK-trained nurses are set to leave the profession in England within a decade of registering, in a trend that could jeopardise the government’s overhaul of healthcare, according to a union.
In depth: ‘Trump is in the fossil fuel industry’s pocket’
“This is the first Cop where finance takes centre stage,” Fiona says. This is because the 2015 Paris agreement requires signatories to establish a new climate finance target by 2025 to help poorer nations manage the impacts of the climate crisis and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This renewed commitment is called the new collective quantified goal, and it aims to replace the previous pledge of $100bn a year made at the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit. Wealthier nations only recently began to meet these climate finance goals, which has fuelled scepticism and distrust among countries in urgent need of funding. “Climate finance is absolutely essential for developing countries to tackle the climate crisis,” says Fiona. “Without substantial investment, significantly reducing global emissions will be impossible.”
Rachel Kyte, the UK’s new climate envoy, told Fiona in an interview that the initial $100bn figure was “plucked out of thin air” – in sharp contrast to this year’s target, which is based on rigorous research and analysis. The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, stated that at least $2.4tn is needed annually by 2030 to help developing countries, excluding China, meet climate goals – about four times the current level of climate finance. “It’s already blazingly obvious that finance is the make-or-break factor in the world’s climate fight,” he told an audience in February.
While this $2.4tn may seem daunting, Fiona notes that nearly half is expected to come from countries’ domestic budgets and private investment, leaving roughly $1tn for wealthier nations to provide.
These figures are broadly accepted across developed and developing nations, but governments of wealthy countries are keenly aware of the domestic backlash that a large investment in climate finance could elicit. As a result, a gap will probably persist between the financial needs of developing countries and what wealthier countries are willing to contribute, even though, as Fiona says, evidence clearly shows that “investing in emission reductions in developing countries is one of the best investments we can make for the planet, as it benefits us all”. The status quo would be extremely costly anyway – a report commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce found that violent weather events cost the world $2tn over the past decade.
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Other routes to raise money
Developed countries are unlikely to propose much more than a tripling of the current $100bn by 2035 – less than a third of what developing nations say they need. Much of this funding is expected to flow through multilateral institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, though these organisations will require substantial reform to effectively support climate finance efforts.
In addition, “innovative sources of finance” could help bridge the gap. As Fiona notes, the money is out there, they’ve just got to tap into it. Potential sources include taxes on fossil fuels, global shipping, wealth, levies on high-carbon activities like private jet travel and redirecting the hundreds of billions spent annually on harmful fossil fuel and agricultural subsidies. However, these mechanisms inevitably benefit some groups while disadvantaging others, and will be challenging to implement effectively.
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Redefining the blocs
Another way of raising the money is opening up the pool of contributors. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which created the list of developed and developing countries, was signed in 1992 – the global economy has changed dramatically since then.
China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are still classed by the US as developing countries. China is now the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world and has the second-largest economy, and many of the Gulf states are hugely oil rich countries. But under the existing rules they still do not have to contribute at all.
This issue has long complicated international climate cooperation. The US wants China to leave the “developing countries” bloc and contribute more to climate funding. China, for its part, has accused the US of not contributing its fair share – a concept that the US rejects.
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The Trump effect
“A Trump administration is undeniably a disaster for Cop and for global climate action,” says Fiona. “Trump is in the fossil fuel industry’s pocket.” (Earlier this year, the president-elect nakedly proposed that major US oil producers contribute $1bn to his campaign in exchange for repealing climate protection laws).
The pivot away from climate action is already under way. The New York Times reported on Friday that Trump’s transition team has prepared a number of executive orders and proclamations that include scrapping every office in every agency working to end the pollution that disproportionately affects poor communities, and withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement.
Though the global effort to tackle the climate crisis may be hampered by Trump in the White House, some things may not shift dramatically: for instance, the US was never the most generous contributor to climate finance and has often been reluctant to provide substantial funding. An environmentally hostile Trump administration may not make a huge difference on that front.
“There is however a risk that other countries may now hide behind Trump’s resistance – he could provide cover for countries that are not that keen on climate action,” Fiona warns. The Biden administration, by contrast, spent years working to bridge divides with China on climate, fostering rare bipartisan cooperation. “That diplomatic effort won’t survive under Trump.”
For more reporting from Cop29, sign up to Down to Earth, the Guardian’s climate newsletter, which will be publishing newsletters twice a week live from Azerbaijan over the course of the conference
What else we’ve been reading
Plans to ban vaping have been hailed by campaigners, public health experts and the public. But consider, Martha Gill writes, “how odd it is to be imposing bans on the most popular and effective aid for quitting smoking that we currently have”. Charlie Lindlar, acting deputy editor, newsletters
The Democrats suffered a major blow in last week’s election, and as insiders scramble to understand what went so disastrously wrong, Joan E Greve delivers a sharp analysis of the brewing civil war within the party. Nimo
Celebs from Nadiya Hussein to Mary Beard offer up the best advice they’ve been given – and it’s the simple yet profound words of Joan Armatrading’s grandmother that will stick with me. Charlie
Lloyd Griffith dives into the surprisingly emotional rollercoaster of his hair transplant journey. Nimo
“A grizzly pantomime? Or a grim harbinger of boxing’s future?” Sean Ingle is compelling on 58-year-old Mike Tyson’s fight against YouTuber Jake Paul this Friday, and what the spectacle says about the state of the sweet science. Charlie
Sport
Football | Ipswich secured a 2-1 win against Tottenham to celebrate their first Premier League win in 22 years, while Pedro Neto’s “vicious low drive” cancelled out Gabriel Martinelli’s opener as Chelsea drew Arsenal 1-1. In the Women’s Super League, Chelsea continued their strongest ever start to a Women’s Super League season with a routine 3-0 victory at Liverpool.
Cricket | Jos Buttler smashed 83 off 45 balls in England’s seven-wicket win against West Indies, giving the tourists a 2-0 lead in the five-match T20 series.
Tennis | Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz made strong starts in their ATP Finals opening matches, defeating Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev respectively. Sinner defeated his Australian opponent 6-3, 6-4 in Turin. Fritz triumphed 6-4, 6-3 in his match.
The front pages
“Starmer at French Armistice Day in show of European solidarity” is the Guardian’s splash headline. “PM heads for Paris to talk Trump and tariffs” says the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “Starmer plots to thwart Trump on Ukraine”. “Starmer accused of ‘disrespecting’ winter fuel protest” – the Daily Express says the government has not acknowledged a petition that the paper organised. Top story in the i is “‘Smash the gangs won’t work’: verdict from Home Office officials on Labour small boats plan”. The Financial Times leads with “Bitcoin hits $80,000 record as traders bet on support of Trump White House”. “Solemn duty – Kate’s remembrance return” gets top billing in the Metro, and “Remember them always” says the Daily Mirror. The Mail uses the occasion to ask “When will Labour give forces funds they need?” as it goes campaigning on defence funding.
Today in Focus
Finding one trillion dollars at Cop29
Will richer nations find the climate finance desperately needed by developing countries? Damian Carrington reports
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
While visiting her daughter in The Hague, 62-year-old Jane Swayne tasted a sea salt and tarragon chocolate that captivated her so much it changed the trajectory of her life. The chocolate inspired her to re-create it back home in Somerset. Although she had never worked with chocolate before, her husband encouraged her, and the challenge of blending fresh herbs into chocolates became a welcome distraction from her work.
When Swayne’s charity lost its funding, a fortuitous chocolate-making course with master chocolatier Ruth Hinks propelled her skills to the next level, despite early struggles. She threw more and more energy into her new passion. With her new venture, Gilbert & Swayne, she has crafted hundreds of chocolates weekly, dedicating 10% of her profits to charity.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
