Good morning. Espionage is an obviously mysterious business, but there can be fewer greater puzzles in the annals of national security than the one that has arisen in the last few days. If you were the mighty Chinese state, and making a list of British public figures who might hold useful intelligence or influence, what would make you put Prince Andrew on it?
I can’t answer that one. But many other questions besides have arisen since it emerged that a businessman and alleged Chinese spy with links to Andrew has been barred from entering the UK on national security grounds – and last night, MPs raised fears that the case shows that the UK has been too eager to strengthen UK-China relations. Today’s newsletter explains what we know. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Ireland | Israel has announced it will close its embassy in Ireland, citing Dublin’s decision last week to support a petition at the international court of justice accusing Israel of genocide. Irish taoiseach Simon Harris called the move “deeply regrettable”.
Economy | Fifty economists and policy experts have issued a warning to Rachel Reeves that encouraging the city to expand could threaten financial stability and jeopardise growth. The chancellor has claimed that regulations imposed after the global financial crisis have “gone too far”.
Extreme weather | At least several hundred people are feared to have been killed after the worst cyclone in almost a century ripped through the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte on Saturday. Officials said the final toll would be hard to ascertain but could be in the thousands.
Immigration and asylum | Syrian asylum seekers left in limbo after the UK home secretary said the government was pausing their claims have called the decision “cruel” and urged officials to resume processing their cases. About 6,500 cases are now in the system.
Guardian and Observer charity appeal | Guardian and Observer readers gave £57,000 over the phones during our annual charity appeal telethon for charities supporting the victims of war and conflict, with the overall total hitting more than £500,000. You can still donate here.
In depth: The duke and the alleged spook
Last week, a tribunal in London gave its decision on an appeal by a businessman and alleged Chinese spy, known only as H6, against a decision to exclude him from the UK on national security grounds.
H6 lost – and the judges ruling on the case said that Suella Braverman, the home secretary who made the decision last year, was “entitled to conclude that the applicant represented a risk to the national security of the United Kingdom”, and that he was “not candid” about his links to the Chinese Communist party.
Among the most remarkable details of the story are H6’s links to Prince Andrew (pictured above with China’s president Xi Jinping in 2018). But over the last few days, serious questions have also been raised about the national security threat posed by Chinese political interference, what the UK can do to stop it – and where the limits on the government’s willingness to do so lie.
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Who is H6?
H6 is a 50-year-old Chinese national. He had roles at key UK-China business groups. Previously not thought to be a security risk, he was stopped at the UK border in November 2021 under powers allowing police officers to investigate suspicions of “hostile activity” on behalf of another state. He surrendered electronic devices including his mobile phone. That stop was the basis of Braverman’s decision to exclude him from the UK last year.
As well as his relationship with Andrew, it was reported over the weekend that he kept photographs of meetings with David Cameron and Theresa May on his desk. But both have met large numbers of people at events over the course of their political careers, and there is no public evidence that either meeting was more than a brief photo opportunity, or any suggestion that either knew him personally.
H6 is now the subject of an interim anonymity order. But there were reports over the weekend that the order could be lifted this week – and meanwhile, some MPs have said that he should be named in the House of Commons under parliamentary privilege. Reform leader Nigel Farage said: “If it’s not resolved in the courts, he should be named in the Commons. It’s clearly in the national interest.” Iain Duncan Smith, a prominent critic of China, is reportedly intending to table an urgent question over H6’s activities.
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What is his connection to Prince Andrew?
Details of H6’s relationship with the Duke of York emerged in evidence taken from the phone that was seized in 2021. Officials found a 2020 letter from a senior adviser to Andrew, Dominic Hampshire, which referred to H6 being invited to his birthday party and said: “Outside of his closest internal confidants, you sit at the very top of a tree that many, many people would like to be on”.
Hampshire also wrote: “we have wisely navigated our way around former private secretaries and we have found a way to carefully remove those people who we don’t completely trust … we found a way to get the relevant people unnoticed in and out of the house in Windsor.”
A possible rationale for H6’s approach to Andrew was also brought to light in the phone search, in a document that listed “main talking points” for a call between the two men. It said that Andrew was in a “desperate situation and will grab on to anything”.
Andrew, for his part, has now said that nothing untoward happened. A statement from his office published on Friday read: “The Duke of York followed advice from His Majesty’s government and ceased all contact with the individual after concerns were raised. The duke met the individual through official channels with nothing of a sensitive nature ever discussed. He is unable to comment further on matters relating to national security.”
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What do we know about the recent history of Chinese operations in the UK?
There are growing concerns in the UK’s security services over Chinese activity in the UK. In May, GCHQ director Anne Keast-Butler said in a speech that China “poses a genuine and increasing cyber risk to the UK”, adding that Beijing “has built an advanced set of cyber capabilities and is taking advantage of a growing commercial ecosystem of hacking outfits and data brokers at its disposal”. She said that GCHQ now devotes more resources to China than any other single mission.
Meanwhile in May, three men in the UK were charged with aiding the Hong Kong intelligence service, and China’s ambassador was summoned to the Foreign Office over allegations of a “recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK”. It referred to cyber-attacks, espionage allegations and the issuing of bounties against Hong Kong dissidents who fled to the UK. The Chinese embassy called those claims “groundless and slanderous”.
One suggestion about H6’s alleged activities in the UK is that they formed part of a wider CCP strategy of “elite capture” – the practice of building relationships with senior figures in a target country to help promote China’s agenda.
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What does the story reveal about the UK’s relationship with China?
While the UK has been increasingly critical of China’s alleged conduct in recent years, perhaps the most telling aspect of the official response to the disclosure of H6’s exclusion from the UK is its ambivalence.
Yesterday, home secretary Yvette Cooper was asked by the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg what her message to China was. Rather than an uncompromising warning about the UK’s attitude to national security threats, Cooper said that “we continue to take a very strong approach to our national security,” but added: “Of course, with China we also need to make sure we have that economic interaction, economic cooperation in place as well. So it’s a complex arrangement.”
That is a reflection of China’s importance as a trading partner. A government factsheet released last month observes that China is the UK’s fifth largest trading partner, with total trade worth £87.7bn in 2023-24. There has been some decline in recent years as the UK seeks to “de-risk” supply chains as part of a reorientation in trade policy after the war in Ukraine – but China remains a significant partner in the post-Brexit landscape, and one whose influence is only likely to grow.
After the allegations set out by the Foreign Office in May, the Chinese embassy warned that the UK’s stance risked “jeopardising China-UK relations”. Now, Jessica Elgot reports, there is likely to be increased pressure for ministers to set a timeline to revive the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS), which would enhance checks on lobbyists for foreign countries and bodies and make failing to register punishable by up to two years in prison.
That scheme was delayed until next year after Labour came to power – and in October, Politico reported that it had been held back as the government carried out a “China audit”. In January, as part of a renewed push for a reset in relations with China, Rachel Reeves is expected to visit Beijing.
What else we’ve been reading
I must admit, I have shamefully queued 45 minutes for a pastry with an unnecessarily strange flavour combination from a trendy bakery. Donna Lu asks why people like me (fools?) are willing to waste our precious time getting flaky baked goods. Nimo
Some 14 years after the start of the Arab Spring, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria naturally brings anxieties over what comes next, writes Nesrine Malik. But in the absence of any neat blueprint, the unravelling of other revolutions should engender “a productive wariness rather than a reason for despair”. Archie
David Smith unpacks the tension in Washington DC as the capital braces itself for a second Trump presidency. Nimo
Living with your ex is not most people’s cup of tea. But in these fascinating interviews for Saturday magazine, four former couples make a decent case for why it works for them, at least. Archie
Following the death of critically acclaimed poet and activist Nikki Giovanni, pictured above, Syreeta McFadden lays out the expansive impact of her work. Nimo
Sport
Football | Amad Diallo (pictured above being mobbed by teammates) earned a late penalty and then scored the winner as Manchester United stunned Manchester City to win 2-1. Elsewhere, Crystal Palace beat Brighton 3-1, Chelsea beat Brentford 2-1 and Tottenham beat Southampton 5-0, with Saints manager Russell Martin sacked later last night.
Football | The football presenter Kelly Cates is understood to be leaving Sky Sports to join a new presenting team for the BBC’s Match of the Day. Cates will be joined in a trio replacing Gary Lineker by Mark Chapman and Gabby Logan.
Cricket | Maia Bouchier and Nat Sciver-Brunt both scored centuries to put England on top after the first day of England women’s test against South Africa. In the final test of their tour of New Zealand, Ben Stokes suffered what appeared to be a recurrence of his hamstring injury as England’s men were set an unlikely 658 to win, reaching 18-2 by the close of play.
The front pages
The Guardian splashes on the controversy over an alleged Chinese spy, running with the headline: “MPs threaten to name Chinese ‘spy’ linked to Prince Andrew.” The Daily Mail headline is “Why China spy must be named”. The Times highlights the story too, opting for: “Duke urged to stay out of sight for Christmas”, while the Sun covered the same angle with a pun: “Banned Old Duke of York.”
The Telegraph covers claims that Rachel Reeves’ changes to inheritance tax will be ineffective, with: “IHT raid ‘will cost more than it makes.’” The Mirror has an exclusive with the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, saying “Wes takes on cosmetic cowboys”. Meanwhile the i has: “EU tells Starmer: your Brexit reset is doomed without a better offer on fish and under-30’s”, and in the Financial Times it’s: “Flood of stock defections leaves LSE on track for worst year since 2009.”
Today in Focus
‘The most beautiful word in the dictionary’: Donald Trump’s tariff plan – podcast
Guardian US business editor Dominic Rushe explains why the president-elect wants to impose tariffs on imports, and the risks it poses to the economy
Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Following the growing number of biodiversity crises can be overwhelming, but there are still plenty of reasons to remain hopeful, as the five success stories highlighted here suggest. Research this year has indicated that conservation action has been working because of the dedication of organisations, scientists, engaged private-sector partners and thousands of committed local people. There has been a dramatic comebacks of rare butterfly species, including the purple emperor (pictured above) and Duke of Burgundy. Another conservation effort has meant that nearly 400,000 willows have been planted across the country, using locally sourced seeds and cuttings – at high elevations willows support diverse communities of birds, mammals and insects.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
