Hello, and welcome to the new First Edition newsletter from the Guardian. I’m Archie Bland, the editor, and I’ll be writing to you at 7am on weekdays along with assistant editor Nimo Omer. We want this email to help make sense of the world you wake up to – with a wrap of the headlines, a pick of fantastic reads, and a deep dive on one essential subject.
We’ll have lots more to say as we introduce you to the newsletter, and we’d love to hear what you think – just reply to this email. But today we’d better get on with it, because we’re starting with a big story: Emmanuel Macron has defeated the radical right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen to win a second term as president of France.
For this first edition of First Edition, we’ll try to explain why Macron’s victory is important – but comes with serious caveats for anyone concerned about the rise of the radical right. First, here are the rest of the headlines.
Five big stories
Ukraine | US secretary of state Antony Blinken said American diplomats would begin to return to Ukraine as he detailed a new package of military financing and ammunition sales worth $465m. Blinken and secretary of defence Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Sunday.
Politics | Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner has dismissed as “sexism and misogyny” a Mail on Sunday report claiming unnamed Tories believed she had adopted “Basic Instinct” tactics by crossing and uncrossing her legs to distract Boris Johnson in parliament.
Health | The NHS is paying £2bn a year to private hospitals to cover a shortfall in beds for mental health patients, a Guardian investigation has found. Nine out of 10 mental health beds run by private operators are occupied by NHS patients.
Social media | Twitter began negotiations with Tesla CEO Elon Musk after shareholders pushed the company to consider his $43bn takeover offer. Sources said that the company was not certain to accept his bid.
Antarctica | Two crew members on a polar research ship are to become the first same-sex couple to get married in the British Antarctic Territory. Eric Bourne and Stephen Carpenter, who have been together 20 years, hope to be married by the boat’s captain today – weather allowing.
In depth: A relief – and a warning
In the end, Emmanuel Macron’s victory for his centrist party La République En Marche was comfortable: he took 58.5% of the vote against 41.5% for Marine Le Pen. (The latest results are here.) Turnout dropped, with abstentions at a record level of 28%, and his margin of victory has halved from 2017, when he beat Le Pen by 66% to 33%.
He sought to frame his victory as one of national unity, saying: “I’m not the candidate of one camp any more, but the president of all of us.” Meanwhile, leftist groups protested on the streets about Le Pen’s score and Macron’s re-election alike.
Considering that not long ago there were real fears of success for Le Pen’s attempt to cast herself and her far-right National Rally party as the true representatives of economically vulnerable voters, Macron’s win is a genuine achievement.
“It is historic,” said the Guardian’s Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis. “It’s the first time in 20 years a French president has won a second term – voters here like to punish leaders at the ballot box.”
And yet, Angelique said, “it was meant to be a foregone conclusion. He argued that he had successes in office, such as lowering unemployment and handling the economy during the pandemic, but it is certainly true that he came to power five years ago and told people, ‘I will make sure that nobody ever has a reason to vote for the extremes again’. And here we are. She has significantly increased her vote.”
The result is “in the short-term really a relief”, Cas Mudde, a political scientist at the university of Georgia in the US and leading expert on populism and the radical right, told me last night. “But in the long-term, it is kicking the can down the road.”
Here are some of the key reasons for optimism and pessimism for opponents of the far right this morning.
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Reasons to be cheerful
1. Macron won a decisive victory
Heading into the crucial parliamentary elections that will dictate Macron’s ability to govern, “the big question becomes, will he be able to deliver a coherent majority through which he will be able to govern for the next five years,” Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director of the Eurasia Group consultancy, told First Edition assistant editor Nimo Omer last night. Rahman said Macron’s margin appears to be big enough “to give him and his allies a tremendous amount of momentum”.
Of course, there will be many who think that Macron would be a better president with a serious influence from the left in parliament – and the radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose first-round supporters did their bit to keep Le Pen out and broke for Macron by a three to one margin, is urging voters to make him prime minister in June. But Rahman argues that Macron’s margin shows that “it’s wrong to suggest this is a presidency by default … there is a very large demographic of French voters that do proactively support him”.
2. The far right is divided
While Le Pen has brought National Rally to a new high, and her far right rival Éric Zemmour won almost 2.5m votes in the first round, those successes may mask serious divisions. There is a contradiction between Le Pen’s successes in courting more mainstream voters with her focus on pocketbook issues and the more explicit nationalism of some of her allies.
“There is tremendous competition on the far right,” said Rahman. “My suspicion is that that will ultimately mean they are less competitive than they could otherwise be.”
3. Le Pen is flawed – with no standout successor
Zemmour noted last night that this is “the eighth time that defeat strikes the Le Pen name” – also referring to Marine’s father Jean-Marie. “Just objectively, she made an advance,” said Mudde. “But it looks as if the margin against her became bigger after the debate, and there will be those on her side who argue ‘we as a party are strong, but she’s not able to bring us beyond this point’ … I think as long as she is leader, the party will not be fully mainstreamed.”
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Reasons for concern
1. Le Pen’s ‘de-demonisation’ strategy
One of the key planks of Le Pen’s approach was to talk less about her most extreme positions, on issues from immigration to banning Muslims from wearing headscarves in public – and to present herself instead as a friendly figure focused on the cost of living. It nearly worked.
“Le Pen has given the far-right its highest ever vote in a presidential election,” said Angelique. The result is part of a gradual progression, not a one-off. “The fact she has risen over the mark of 40% shows she has managed to lower the nation’s fear of her.”
One measure of that success: in September, a poll found her the 11th most popular political figure in France. A few weeks ago, she was second. (Edouard Philippe, former prime minister under Macron, was top.)
2. Younger voters are more open to the extreme right
The most worrying feature of this election, said Mudde, is the age distribution of support: in the first round, “Macron appears to have survived because of older voters,” and data released by Ipsos on the run-off suggested that while 18-24 year olds did turn towards Macron, almost half of 25-49 year olds backed Le Pen. Some 71 per cent of over 70s backed Macron.
This gets at a familiar story: across Europe, younger voters are turning away from a mainstream they believe has failed them, and reaching for “anti-system” parties of various stripes.
“That is a reflection of the way economic reforms are being implemented at the expense of the younger,” Mudde said. “I am very, very sceptical Macron is going to change that.”
3. The old parties have collapsed – and Macron is a one-man band
For Mudde, the big problem with the way we tend to think about elections with far-right candidates is exactly that framing – a “disproportionate fascination”. “It focuses on the minority, not the majority,” he said. “The more important story is what is happening at the heart of liberal democracy.”
The traditional parties of left and right have collapsed from 56% of votes in the first round in 2012 to just 6% this year. “It is a stunning death on the national stage,” said Angelique. “Locally and regionally they’re still strong – but it creates a dangerous situation about what comes next.”
Macron’s party La République En Marche, meanwhile, “is a machine built around one man, set up for him with his initials, EM. There’s no obvious person to take over… Literally the minute he wins, the battle begins in this devastated political landscape to try to find out who or what will come in five years’ time.”
Mudde agrees. “The traditional parties have been replaced not by a party, but by a man – a man who cannot run again. That is where the real story is.”
“I think France has bought itself five more years,” he said. “Calling it a hollow victory would be too harsh. It is very important. But it comes with significant red flags.”
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Read more on the French election
This piece by Angelique explains the contrast between Macron’s economic successes and the voters who feel their lives are getting worse.
Jon Henley sets out the key issues facing Macron in his second term, from the war in Ukraine to his limited personal support.
Kim Willsher looks at the prospects of civil war on the radical right if Le Pen steps back.
Last week, Owen Jones argued that only politicians who recognise that we live in “an age of grievance and fury driven by stagnating living conditions and justifiable pessimism” will be able to finally see off the likes of Le Pen.
After the debate, French political scientist Philippe Marlière wrote that Macron helped Le Pen’s “de-demonisation” strategy by focusing on policy details in the debate instead of emphasising her far-right status.
What else we’ve been reading
While it is a sensible rule of thumb to assume actors are the worst, Bill Hader just seems … great? Hadley Freeman interviewed him. (NB: if you haven’t watched his reluctant hitman comedy Barry, immediately do that instead.) Archie
Anyone hoping for a Labour blowout in the local elections next month should read Josh Halliday’s piece from Sunderland. It gets at the need to do more than capitalise on Boris Johnson’s unpopularity: “There’s a big poll lead nationally and we are getting a hearing again, but I’m still not sensing that love on the ground”. Archie
In case you missed it on Saturday, Diyora Shadijanova reported on the world of Russian influencers, and how it’s changed since the start of the war in Ukraine. It’s full of insight into how young Russians feel about their country. Nimo
Fewer cancellations, boozy lunches, and higher prices – Ed Cumming explores the new rules for post-pandemic restaurants. It’s a really interesting insight into what we might expect from restaurants in the future. Nimo
Look, I don’t want you thinking your new favourite newsletter is anything other than upmarket, but I was watching Selling Sunset at the weekend and fell about laughing at its extremely literal music picks. Which led me to this hoot of a piece on BuzzFeed from December on how they’re chosen, and related memes. Please enjoy. Archie
The front pages
The Guardian leads with the French election in print today, with the headline “Macron pledges unity after he fends off Le Pen threat”. The Financial Times says “Macron on track for election win after fighting off Le Pen challenge”. The Times has “Macron vows to reunite France after election win” and the paper also says it’s been told the Sue Gray report into Partygate will be so damning “Johnson will have to quit”. The i says “Tory rebels join forces to oust PM”. “I owe you, Macron promises France” is the splash in the Telegraph. “Putin’s tiniest victim” – the Metro reports on a mother and baby killed in the Ukraine war. The Daily Mail leads with “HRT crisis ‘putting women’s lives in danger’”. The Express says “Pensioners face cost of living ‘year from hell’”, while the Mirror has “Cost of living poll shock – Bills pain hits home”.
Today in Focus
Shein and the rise of ultra-fast fashion
The Chinese fashion brand Shein found rapid success by catering to young shoppers whose tastes are driven by social media. But making fast fashion even faster comes at a cost.
Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For decades, commercial buildings have tended to be built with the expectation that they will be knocked down and replaced, creating a huge cost in carbon emissions. But now property owners and developers are being forced to think more sustainably, retrofitting existing buildings to make them viable for the future.
“People will walk away from buildings that don’t offer great environmental credentials,” said property developer James Raynor. “It’s in the interest of developers, ourselves and others, to make sure that everything has the best credentials possible, otherwise they will stay empty.”
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