Good morning. The biggest election in the world started on 19 April, and it is only halfway through. There are 969 million voters in India, 2,600 parties, 15 million election officials and one polling booth situated more than 15,000 feet high in the Himalayan mountains – but one party, and one man, sit confidently at the top of the pile.
While the BJP and prime minister, Narendra Modi, are widely expected to secure a third term in office when the votes are counted next month, the contest so far has not all been smooth sailing. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Delhi correspondent, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, is about the economic challenges to Modi’s hopes of securing a massive majority, why he has leaned into blatant Islamophobia on the campaign trail, and the opposition weaknesses that mean he is likely to win anyway. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Labour | Keir Starmer is under fresh pressure over the former Tory MP Natalie Elphicke’s defection after the president of the Trades Union Congress said her vocal support for anti-strike laws should be “incompatible” with the Labour whip. Matt Wrack’s intervention follows claims over the weekend, denied by Elphicke, that she lobbied the justice secretary to interfere in her then husband’s rape case.
Israel-Gaza war | Banning arms exports to Israel would help Hamas, UK foreign secretary David Cameron said on Sunday, as tens of thousands fled Rafah in fear of an impending IDF assault. Cameron also said that the UK could not support an offensive in Rafah because Israel has not presented “an absolutely clear plan” to protect civilians.
Education | Universities are reporting a steep drop in international students applying to come to the UK, amid warnings that further restrictions on student visas would torpedo a vital flow of talent for Britain’s creative industries. A poll of 75 institutions found that nine out of 10 had fewer international applications for the next academic year.
Ukraine | Ukraine’s top military commander admitted on Sunday that the situation in the north-eastern Kharkiv region was “difficult” as Russia continued a major assault in the area. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin removed his longtime ally Sergei Shoigu as defence minister in the most significant reshuffle to the military command since the war began.
Baftas | The television industry is “in turmoil” and needs “creative survival solutions” from the UK government, the children’s television presenter Floella Benjamin has said, as she accepted a fellowship at the Bafta TV awards. Big winners at Sunday night’s ceremony included Top Boy, Happy Valley, and The Sixth Commandment.
In depth: ‘When Modi looks weaker on the economy, polarisation is his safest territory’
In 2014, the BJP became the first party to secure a parliamentary majority in three decades. It did even better in 2019, and when this year’s election got under way, it was expected to strengthen further. There was even talk of winning 400 of the 543 parliamentary seats on offer, which has only happened once since independence in 1947.
Most opinion polls in the runup to the election predicted a commanding majority for the BJP, while Modi’s personal approval rating hovers about 75%. And although the once-dominant Congress party sought to strengthen its position through the formation of a broad coalition named INDIA, or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, last July, it has struggled to put forward a coherent vision with its allies.
“The narrative was about the strength of Modi’s position,” Hannah said. “They are popular, they have a strong campaign operation, and they have been accused of bringing the media, the judiciary and the election commission under their control.”
A Modi victory remains the most likely outcome. But, said Hannah, there have been cracks in the facade. “Modi talks about a story of economic growth, and India rising. But people aren’t feeling that success story on the ground, and in some places that has led to anger with the government.”
***
Modi’s dominance
The BJP was formed in 1980 as an offshoot of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a paramilitary organisation that sought to promote the idea of India as a Hindu nation – in stark contrast to the Congress party’s vision of a secular state. For a sense of how Modi went about “remaking India into an authoritarian, Hindu nationalist state”, see Samanth Subramanian’s superb 2020 long read. “Indians often vote on local issues,” Hannah said. “His success is to get many of them to vote on the basis of support for his Hindu nationalist vision.”
India under Modi is sometimes described as an “illiberal democracy”, where people get a real vote but use it against a backdrop of an increasingly authoritarian state. Modi’s popularity is real, but comes with an asterisk about how it has been achieved.
Modi hasn’t conducted a press conference in 10 years. “He has successfully co-opted the media,” Hannah said. “Everything people read or see on TV is designed to promote the prime minister. If people feel that their own lives have become harder, they don’t see that reflected in the media and culture. So even when people don’t believe in the government, they may still give Modi their vote.”
***
The economic backdrop
Despite the story they hear, the economic pain experienced by many ordinary people is real. Although the overall unemployment rate is below 5%, underemployment – less visible in statistics – remains a serious problem. Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate is near 18%, a particularly pressing issue given nearly half the population is below 25. And GDP per capita stands at $2,411 – a figure that compares poorly with other emerging economies like China and Mexico.
Meanwhile, because of a sense that Modi’s government favours a few large companies and makes arbitrary interventions in their favour, foreign direct investment has actually been in decline – and now stands at a dismal 0.7% of GDP.
All that means that India’s strong headline growth rate is far from telling the whole story. Hannah points to a recent study written by a group of economists including Thomas Piketty which found that as a new generation of billionaires has risen under Modi, India now has greater inequality than at any point in its history – even than under British colonial rule.
Modi’s continuing popularity despite all that is in part because of how effectively he links India’s generous welfare system to his personal brand, with about $400bn on direct cash benefits over the last decade. “The BJP manifesto is titled ‘Modi’s Guarantee’,” Hannah said. “His picture is on the bags of food that people are given, and almost everything that people get from the state. But the spending on things that would have a long-term impact like healthcare and schools is not there.”
Despite the popularity of those subsidies, Hannah said, “There is tangible anger about the overall picture. I’ve spoken to people who say that there are all these highways and sleek airports being built, but they can’t use them on an auto or a scooter – and they’re connecting places up without foreign industry coming in to use them.” In interviews with voters over the last few weeks, “the anger and resentment is a lot more vocal than I had thought. And after 10 years in power, it’s difficult to blame anyone else.”
***
Islamophobic rhetoric
While Hindu nationalism and Islamophobia have been a central tenet of Modi’s rule, and are widely seen as the source for rising persecution and violence against Muslims, “in the past, he has tended to let lower level people in the party say the more extreme things,” Hannah said. “So seeing him take a different approach during this campaign is perhaps a sign of worry and alarm that the campaign isn’t going as they want it to.”
One possible reason for that is a dip in turnout against 2019: although analysts say that this doesn’t necessarily point to trouble for the BJP, the party appears to be spooked by fears that its supporters are not excited.
Last month, Modi used a campaign rally to refer to Muslims as “infiltrators” who have “many children” and would take people’s hard-earned money. He also said that under a previous Congress government, “Muslims have the first right over the nation’s wealth”, and warned that a victory for the opposition would mean the same thing happening again.
Last week, the government released a report which said that India’s Hindu population had declined by 14% over the course of 65 years, while the Muslim population has increased. “There’s no new data – but it’s incendiary,” Hannah said. “When Modi looks weaker on the economy, that kind of polarisation is his safest territory.”
***
The opposition’s struggles
The BJP’s campaign to secure 400 seats has been seen by some as having backfired – because it has allowed the opposition to focus on concerns over what Modi might do with a big enough majority to change the constitution and enshrine India as a Hindu-first country rather than a secular republic.
But Congress and INDIA have been unable to fully capitalise.
“That is partly because of the power the BJP wields,” Hannah said. “They have been accused of using the state to go after opposition figures with investigations and coerce them to jump to the BJP. The opposition leader, Rahul Gandhi, was jailed over a trumped-up defamation case. Congress’s bank accounts have been frozen, and the chief minister of Delhi has been locked up. They are being consistently undermined.” More than 90% of cases involving politicians over the last decade have been against members of the opposition.
But it is also true that the opposition faces problems of its own making. “Gandhi lost the last two elections against Modi, and he appears to be a reluctant leader – but he’s still there. The party is seen as dynastic and elitist. And the INDIA coalition is pretty ideologically incoherent. They have huge egos at the top without much common ground.”
In the face of Modi’s overwhelming personal strength, the fact that his opponents cannot coalesce around a platform or even a single leader is part of why he is still likely to win – even if 400 seats now appear improbable. “Against a cult of personality, a messy coalition just isn’t enough,” Hannah said. “In the end, even if they’re disenchanted, many people will still vote for Modi.”
What else we’ve been reading
In Saturday magazine, Jenny Kleeman had the astonishing story of Raffaella Spone (above), who was accused of producing a deepfake video to smear her cheerleader daughter’s rivals. The problem: the video wasn’t fake. Kleeman’s story is a classic exercise in following up after the headlines move on – and a warning about how insidious moral panics can be. Archie
“I was given a shitty bit of advice”: Goodbye to all that – the Guardian’s interview series with soon-to-be-ex-MPs – continues with John Harris’ interview with Labour’s Margaret Hodge, who recalls memories and missteps from 30 years in parliament. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
The great Irish writer Colm Tóibín has overcome his aversion to sequels to write a follow-up to his acclaimed novel Brooklyn. “I’ve been with these characters for a long time,” he tells Lisa Allardice. “It’s strange how they don’t leave you.” Archie
In “late capitalism strikes again” news, a Chinese supermarket chain is offering its staff up to 10 days “unhappiness leave” a year. Still, writes Emma Beddington, it’s something, and “definitely better than those team awaydays where you pick litter in corporate-branded T-shirts”. Hannah
Controversies over pro-Palestinian slogans like “intifada” don’t just ignore the reality of their origins and meaning, writes Nesrine Malik: they misunderstand the very nature of protest. “Protest becomes necessary precisely because authorities have not been responsive,” she argues. “Politicians have executive power, and protesters have one thing: their voices.” Archie
Sport
Football | Ella Toone (above) scored her fourth goal in seven appearances at Wembley to launch Manchester United towards an emphatic 4-0 FA Cup final win over Tottenham. In the Premier League, a goal from Leandro Trossard secured a 1-0 win for Arsenal over Manchester United and ensured the race for the title will go down to the last day of the season.
Cricket | After Jimmy Anderson confirmed his retirement following the first Test against West Indies this summer, Mark Ramprakash remembers his own difficulties with knowing when to quit, and says that the decision is the right one: “England are losing a great bowler, perhaps their greatest, but I completely agree with what the management has decided. We will gather at Lord’s to say farewell to a master.”
Tennis | A concerned Novak Djokovic says he will undergo extra medical tests in relation to being struck by a water bottle after crashing out in the third round of the Italian Open. After a metal bottle fell on his head on Friday, Djokovic said he had felt fine on Saturday but felt like “a different player” as he was defeated 6-2, 6-3 by Chile’s Alejandro Tabilo.
The front pages
On the Guardian front page, an exclusive on last week’s controversial defection from the Conservatives: “Union boss says Elphicke is ‘incompatible’ with Labour”. Many of the other papers are focused on Rishi Sunak’s speech. In the Telegraph it’s “PM: Britain safer under Tories for dangerous years ahead”. The Mail says “Rishi warns UK is entering a ‘dangerous era’” and the Express’ view seems positive with “PM’s bold vision for ‘stark choices’ facing Britain”.
The Mirror leads with “Get YOUR house in order” as it says it has an exclusive in the wake of the Angela Rayner controversy, on four Tories who won’t reveal whether they paid tax on money they earned from taxpayer-funded properties. The i has the cost of living in its sights with “Rise in 40-year mortgages as millions face repayments into retirement”.
The Times has “UK sicknote culture is fuelled by obesity crisis” as the paper reports on a study connecting obesity to illness. And in the Financial Times it’s “Beijing fires starting gun on $140bn debt sale aimed at boosting economy”, as China sells long-dated bonds.
Today in Focus
Put it down! Should children be allowed smartphones?
Almost all children have them by the time they are 11 years old – and some get them at four. But are they ruining childhoods? Helen Pidd speaks to Blake Montgomery
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
Sign up for Inside Saturday to see more of Edith Pritchett’s cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
They say that every dog has its day. These days, though, it seems that the saying should be every dog has its day on the red carpet, with a ton of charismatic canine actors set to appear at the Cannes film festival, which kicks off this week. As the Guardian’s European culture editor Philip Oltermann reports, griffon cross Kodi is just one of the four-legged stars set to grace the world’s leading celebration of cinema, having starred in French-Swiss actor Laetitia Dosch’s directorial debut Dog on Trial (original title Le Procès du Chien). Border collie Messi – co-star of the tense Oscar-winner Anatomy of a Fall, in which he played Snoop – will also be in attendance, grilling celebrities for French TV. Toby Rose, founder of the Palm Dog prize for animal actors, has noted a “huge uptick in dog roles at the festival”. Says Rose, “it’s a sign of the times – a very significant marketing move.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
