Good morning. Since the end of the Silvio Berlusconi era in 2011, Italian politics has been characterised by its instability. In next month’s election, that could change. The beneficiaries are the inheritors of Benito Mussolini.
Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers of Italy party have come almost from nowhere, gaining just 4% of the vote in the 2018 election. But now the far-right group is at the helm of a coalition which is polling almost 50%, and victory looks all but certain, and likely to bring with it a more stable coalition than its recent predecessors.
Brothers of Italy themselves have the support of about a quarter of voters. That level of popularity could allow a new government with Meloni at the helm to change the Italian constitution.
Meloni is an admirer of the Hungarian nationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán; an opponent of gay rights; and wants a naval blockade to stop undocumented immigrants coming to Italy from Libya. But she is also an advocate of free nursery places, claims to be pro-Ukraine, has toned down her party’s anti-EU stance, and wants to create a family allowance of €400 a month. Meanwhile, many fear that her opponents on the left have lost the ability to connect with the working-class voters who were once their bedrock.
Sound familiar? It is – up to a point. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Rome correspondent, Angela Giuffrida, is about what Meloni is up to, and what it means for Italy’s future. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Social care | Thousands of vulnerable people are suffering inadequate care due to severe staffing shortages in care homes in England. Analysis by the Guardian revealed that a lack of staff was identified as a key problem in three-quarters of all care homes whose rating had dropped from “good” to “inadequate”.
Environment | Sewage monitors at some popular seaside destinations in England and Wales are faulty or not installed, Environment Agency data has revealed, meaning people could be swimming in human waste without realising. In Devon and Cornwall, one in eight designated bathing locations had missing or faulty monitors.
Ukraine | Kyiv is bracing for an intensification of Russian missile attacks to coincide with its independence day on Wednesday after the car-bomb killing of the daughter of an ultranationalist Russian ideologue. Without evidence, Russian hawks quickly blamed Ukraine for the death of Darya Dugina.
Conservatives | Tory leadership frontrunner Liz Truss could give the government a double-figure polling bounce if she wins, according to internal Labour analysis. A research memo leaked to the Guardian argues Truss could be tempted to call a snap election - but would quickly lose her appeal.
UK news | The Team GB decathlete Ben Gregory is on life support after a serious cycling accident. Gregory, 31, who has represented Wales at three Commonwealth Games, is in a coma after suffering a fractured skull and neck, and multiple brain haemorrhages.
In depth: ‘There’s a feeling among voters that Giorgia Meloni is one of them’
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Why is there an election under way in Italy?
Because prime minister Mario Draghi resigned last month after his coalition collapsed. The former head of the European Central Bank, Draghi was a popular, technocratic choice as prime minister. Although he was a caretaker, installed to avoid early elections at a febrile mid-pandemic moment of economic crisis, his 18 months leading a national unity government was a period of relative stability and economic recovery.
But the withdrawal of support from three right-wing parties made Draghi’s administration untenable. It also highlighted another dynamic: since voters were last given a say on who leads their country, three very different coalitions have held power.
“The last election didn’t produce a clear majority for any one grouping,” said Angela. “This coalition never really got on, and the League” – the far-right party led by hardline Eurosceptic and former interior minister Matteo Salvini – “always had one foot out of the door. It was inevitable that they would bring it down as soon as they saw an excuse.”
Into the void created by the collapse of the Draghi administration has come the Brothers of Italy, the heirs to Mussolini’s Italian Social Movement. The party has been accused by its critics of failing to sever itself from its fascist roots and espouses hardline views on immigration and homosexuality.
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Why are Brothers of Italy favourites to lead the next government?
After an era of governmental musical chairs, in which fundamentally dissimilar parties have hung together for the sake of political expediency or the national interest, depending on how you look at it, Brothers of Italy are distinguished above all by the fact that they have never participated. John Foot, author of Blood and Power: The Rise and Fall of Italian Fascism, wrote in the Observer last week that “Meloni’s decision to stay out of the wide emergency coalition under Draghi looks set to reap a political harvest”.
That familiar outsider story – together with a diagnosis of Italy’s vast economic problems that places much of the blame at the feet of immigrants, and a traditionalist appeal on issues like abortion and adoption for gay couples – has allowed Brothers of Italy to seize the initiative despite that 4% vote share in 2018.
Crucially, Angela noted, they have backed up their outsider appeal with on-the-ground work that emphasises their roots in working-class communities. “All along the last few years, not just during elections, Brothers of Italy have held these discussions with people on the ground. Last summer they had a stage erected for a month near where I live holding conversations with ordinary people.
“They come across as more socially rooted: they don’t have elite educations, they present themselves as of the workers, and it rings true to people. The left hasn’t been able to do that.”
On the left, the Democratic party are about even in the polls with Brothers of Italy. But the right-wing party is decisively benefited by its place in a coherent coalition with the League and Silvio Berlusconi’s more moderate Forza Italia – which means there is a chance that they could form a more stable government than any since Berlusconi himself was prime minister. The left “is just so divided that it can’t muster a coalition with a chance of winning”, Angela said.
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Why is their leader Giorgia Meloni so popular?
While her politics are abhorrent to those of a progressive mindset, there is little doubting Meloni’s political skill – or her canny ability to position herself as a plausible figure for those who might be put off by the most extreme aspects of her party’s agenda and history.
“I remember writing about her just before the last elections,” said Angela (you can read that prescient 2018 piece, which notes Meloni’s ambition and ability to connect with voters, here). “When I spoke to people who had known her since she started out in politics, it was very clear that even then, even though this was a fringe party, she was just relentless – and she had the skill to go to places where the centre left just wouldn’t go and speak to people.
“There’s a feeling that she’s one of them. She’s from a working-class background, she’s seen as gutsy. She didn’t go to university but she’s very smart. A lot of voters see what’s called ‘radical chic’ on the left – people comfortably off and far removed from the issues they face.”
Meloni also benefits from a familiar dynamic in the chaotic postwar history of Italian politics: “There’s definitely a sense of, we’ve tried everyone else and it hasn’t worked, we should give her a chance. So there’s a hopelessness to it as well.”
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Does all this mean Italy is on the brink of a fascist government?
It’s too simplistic to describe Meloni and Brothers of Italy as fascist (as John Foot wrote: “She will not command black-shirted armed groups and she will not look to overturn liberal democracy”). And Meloni has herself explicitly distanced herself from her party’s neofascist origins, saying that the Italian right “has handed fascism over to history for decades now” and comparing herself to the UK’s Conservatives and the Republicans in the US.
Notably, that line came from a video spoken in English, French and Spanish, suggesting that Meloni sees a need to present a respectable face to the international community. She has also – despite messages to the contrary from her coalition partners – promised that Italy will continue to support Ukraine in the war against Russia.
At the same time – as Angela laid out in this piece last week – many view Meloni as trying to have it both ways. She recently gave a speech at a rally held by the Spanish far-right party Vox, dwelling far more on the hardline parts of her agenda. She has also used language in which some have seen coded nods to Mussolini – such as the phrase “history has proved us right”, which appears to line up with a Mussolini line: “History will prove me right … a young person will rise, a leader who will inevitably agitate the ideas of fascism”. Meloni is 45.
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So what should we conclude from Meloni’s rise?
In the end, the question of whether or not Brothers of Italy are fascists is less pertinent than the question of what happens next, and the country’s place within the modern radical right making its influence felt across Europe - with fuzzier distinctions from the mainstream right than ever before. As this Guardian editorial puts it: There is “no reason to be remotely sanguine about Ms Meloni’s possible accession to power”.
Italian politics is sui generis – and any parallels with Trump, Brexit, or Marine Le Pen are bound to have their limits. But Angela’s analysis of the left’s response to the threat posed by Meloni, and the likelihood of her success next month, will strike a chilling chord to observers of those political phenomena.
“All the left seems to have to say in response is ‘they’re fascists and we’re not, they’re racists and we’re not’,” she said. “I feel that one of the lessons of Brexit was the need to try to get past those designations to understand how voters are thinking. I’ve spent a lot of time trying to do that over the last few years. When I speak to ordinary Italians, they don’t hold racist or fascist views – they might turn a blind eye, but they think it’s all in the past. When they hear that from the left, it leaves them cold.”
What else we’ve been reading
After a bit of a lull earlier in the year, there’s now a surfeit of television on the way. The Guardian’s TV team have helpfully picked out the must sees for autumn, from the wildly expensive Lord of the Rings spinoff Rings of Power to “sexy, stressful” chef drama The Bear. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Nesrine Malik puts her finger on a feature of the current political crisis: a sense of limbo, with a government that rejects its duty to fix it. But she finds reasons for optimism in the resulting tumult: “The bad news is that the “grownups” did this. The good news is that more and more people are beginning to realise that.” Archie
Amelia Tait deftly digs into more forgotten pop culture, this time the character bubble bath bottles beloved of 80s and 90s kids which have since disappeared from shelves. Hannah
If you’re dismayed by Instagram and TikTok, you may find something to love in a new crop of social networks designed to prioritise intimacy over influence. Laurie Clarke explains BeReal and Locket to those of us too wizened and confused to make sense of them on our own. Archie
The New York Times Style (£) has done a deep dive into Weleda’s cult Skin Food moisturiser, complete with striking images of the farming process behind it. There is truly nothing you won’t know about it after you read this. Hannah
Here’s a special bonus item: it’s not reading, but this Nasa recording of what a black hole sounds like is a fantastically eerie way to start your day. Or possibly a discarded 1970s Doctor Who sound effect, who knows. Archie
Sport
Football | Manchester City salvaged a 3-3 draw after going 3-1 down against Newcastle at St James’ Park. Meanwhile, Leeds won an upset 3-0 victory over Chelsea after a howler from Chelsea goalkeeper Édouard Mendy.
Boxing | After defeating Anthony Joshua for the second time, Oleksandr Usyk threw down the challenge to Britain’s Tyson Fury to come out of retirement and fight him for the undisputed world heavyweight boxing title.
Athletics | The ghosts of failures past returned to haunt Britain’s women’s 4x100m relay team last night when a dropped baton cost them gold at the European championships in Munich – but at least the men made sure of victory in their sprint relay.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Crisis in care home staffing leaves residents with basic needs unmet”, and healthcare is also on the agenda at the Telegraph – “NHS 111 patients on hold 20 times too long” – and the Mail: “New blood test could stop one in 10 cancer deaths”. The Times splashes on a poll which shows “Tory voters still want Johnson to be leader”, and the Financial Times has “Top Russian diplomat dismisses chances of Ukraine peace deal”. The Express reports on a plan to help with household bills: “Get paid to turn off your washing machine”. The i is in similar territory with “Cost of living debt crisis fears over energy bills”, as is the Scotsman with “Sturgeon: People will die due to soaring living costs”, and the Record: “Families are facing ‘destitution & devastation’”. The Sun leads with the stabbing death of Tyson Fury’s cousin – “Tyson’s hell as cousin knifed to death” – as does the Mirror: “End this knife horror”.
Today in Focus
Revisited: the Division: New Orleans – part one
We’re visiting some of our best podcasts from the year so far. Here, our US southern bureau chief, Oliver Laughland, explains what he discovered when he spent six months following what happened when a progressive Black district attorney was elected in Louisiana, the heart of the deep south.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
Sign up for Inside Saturday to see more of Edith Pritchett’s cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Allegations that Canadian news anchor Lisa LaFlamme had been dropped by the broadcaster CTV for “going grey” have sparked anger, but – writes Lauren Cochrane – white and silver tresses are more popular than ever in 2022. Celebrities including Andie MacDowell and Helen Mirren (pictured) have worn their natural grey hair on red carpets in recent times, while models including 57-year-old Kristen McMenamy are increasingly in demand. It’s not just a trend for famous faces, however; the hashtag #greyhairdontcare has been used almost 500,000 times on Instagram by people of various ages showing off their locks.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
