Good morning, and congratulations on not reading this with your head in the fridge. Even a couple of years ago, heatwaves in the UK meant a spirit of national jubilation; this time, it feels like the penny has dropped.
Even the most avid of climate deniers will struggle to argue with the impact of the weather of the next couple of days, with the UK’s first ever red warning for exceptional heat in effect as temperatures may hit 40C or even 41C for the first time since the UK started recording them.
Whether or not the symbolic 40C barrier is breached, the heat is likely to go past the 2019 record of 38.7C. Meanwhile in Europe, forest fires are raging across tens of thousands of hectares of Portugal, Spain, France, and Greece. And the overall trend caused by the climate crisis is stark. In a medium emissions scenario, a 40C temperature in the UK – currently expected every few centuries – is likely to come about once every 15 years. If emissions go unchecked, that could be once every 3.5 years.
As a country whose entire psychological disposition is built on the expectation and preference of mild weather, the UK is not really equipped for these kinds of conditions – but on a day like today, the consequences will be wide-ranging and severe. Nimo and I will run you through some of the most important ones right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Conservatives | Rishi Sunak accused his rival leadership candidates of promoting “socialism” by promising unfunded tax cuts, as the deep divisions in the party over economic policy were exposed in a bad-tempered televised debate. Here are five key takeaways.
Uvalde shooting | There were “systemic failures and egregious poor decision-making” involved in the deadly school shooting at Robb Elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, a committee of state lawmakers investigating the massacre has found.
Health policy | The UK has missed opportunities to prepare for future pandemics, the former vaccines tsar has said. Dame Kate Bingham said there had been a “lack of government appetite” to scale up the country’s capacity to manufacture antibodies.
Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskiy fired the head of Ukraine’s powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.
Food waste | Marks & Spencer is planning to remove “best before” labels from 300 varieties of fruit and vegetables in its stores. Customers will instead be asked to use their own judgment in deciding whether items are still edible.
In depth: Britain braces for a heatwave unlike any other
Look, nobody should feel bad about enjoying a 99 Flake in the sunshine (read this guide to staying cool first) – but images such as the one above can obscure the severity of the bigger picture, and the breadth of the consensus about its impact. And while you can still find people who think concerns about extreme temperatures are a lot of fuss about nothing, you have to look in some pretty eccentric corners.
Take Sir John Hayes, chair of the interestingly named Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, who said last week that warnings of the risks were evidence that we live in a “cowardly new world”, and added: “It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.” Which I guess is proof that snowflakes and melts are bound to see things differently.
For those in the reality-based community, here’s a guide to some of the ways today’s temperatures will make themselves felt:
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NHS ‘This could not be coming at a harder time’
The NHS is used to seasonal extremes putting additional pressure on the service – in the depths of winter. The prospect of additional 999 calls and hospital admissions for dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke at a time of year when the health service is less prepared would be layered on top of a rise in Covid cases. Ambulance services are predicting a 20% rise in callouts. “It feels like a midwinter crisis in the middle of July,” Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS confederation, told the BBC. “This could not be coming at a harder time for us.”
To help deal with the problem, hospitals are cancelling leave and asking off-duty staff to come in, and in some cases cancelling routine appointments and surgeries. There have also been appeals for the public to think carefully about whether a health problem requires a 999 call.
In care homes, there is still is no centralised data on heatwave preparedness. In the 2003 heatwave, when temperatures reached 38.5 degrees, excess deaths in nursing homes increased by 42% in parts of the UK. Archie
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Transport Expect disruption
The temperatures expected today are going to disrupt all kinds of transport. The risks include road surfaces melting and rail tracks warping, while the RAC said it was expecting an increase of 15-20% on the number of breakdowns compared to a typical July (and particularly advises against driving if your car doesn’t have effective air conditioning).
The rail network is designed to run effectively at normal maximum temperatures of about 30C: measures are being put in place to make sure train tracks don’t buckle significantly, but this will involve services abiding by lower speed limits of 60mph across much of the network, meaning journeys may take twice as long. Rail passengers in England and Wales have been urged to travel only if necessary on Monday and Tuesday. Nimo Omer
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Workplaces Employees urged to stay at home if they can
If the pandemic drove people out of offices, the heatwave – and the promise of building-wide air conditioning, if it doesn’t fail – may temporarily tempt some of them back. But Cabinet Office Minister Kit Malthouse says that the heat – and transport difficulties – may make this “a moment to work from home”, and some employers are issuing similar advice.
For those who have to be in the workplace, unions and the CBI are asking employers to relax dress codes to allow them to be more comfortable. In her round-up, the Guardian’s Zoe Wood notes that while there is a minimum legal working temperature, there is no maximum. But the Health and Safety Executive tells employers that a “reasonable” temperature must be maintained to ensure workers’ “thermal comfort”. The GMB union has called for a maximum of 25C – a level which may be breached in many workplaces today.
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People with disabilities ‘Don’t assume you know someone’s needs just by looking at them’
People with disabilities face a range of additional complications as a result of extreme heat which might not be obvious to other people. Guardian columnist Frances Ryan, who frequently writes about the issues facing people with disabilities, adds: “You’re more likely to be in poor housing and poverty if you’re disabled, as well as isolated, so that can also add to the dangers in heat.”
Frances suggests checking in on friends or neighbours who might be vulnerable, and advises employers: “Don’t force people into work or the commute. A lot of disabilities that are impacted by heat are invisible disabilities – such as heart conditions or fatigue – so don’t assume that you know someone’s needs just by looking at them.” For her own part, she will be following advice to stay out of the sun and stay cool by “laying in a darkened room for three days like an infirm Jane Austen character.” Archie
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Schools Closures, timetable changes, and cancelled sports days
Like workplaces, there is no legal temperature threshold at which children must be sent home. Schools have a responsibility to make sure that conditions are “reasonable” for staff and students, but without a real legal limit, it is down to the discretion of individual schools to make decisions about how best to keep children safe. Some schools are switching to remote learning because they say they cannot keep buildings cool enough, or cancelling or postponing sports days. Others are planning non-uniform days, minimising outdoor activities, including breaks, and shifting the timetable to allow pupils to leave before the afternoon heat. Nimo
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Rough sleeping Health risks of exposure without access to shade
Most of us can retreat to our shady homes and switch a fan on, get plenty of drinking water from a tap, or take a cold shower. Those options often won’t be available to rough sleepers.
In London, where homelessness is particularly acute, mayor Sadiq Khan has asked the city’s boroughs to carry out additional welfare checks. Petra Salva, director of rough sleeping at homelessness charity St Mungo’s, said it would be taking water, hats and sunscreen to rough sleepers who may have underlying health issues, and working with local authorities to increase the provision of cooling rooms to provide a break from the heat.
“Libraries are also a godsend” for those with nowhere else to go, Salva said. In general, “This hasn’t come as a surprise to us. It’s going to be an absolutely normal part of our planning in the future, and it will absolutely put more pressure on our resources to help people.” Archie
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Pets Keep paws off pavements (and don’t shave your dog)
It’s not just people who are going to have a hard time coping with the heat – pets also experience extreme discomfort. If their owners aren’t careful, heatstroke or burnt paws are very possible. A lot of the guidance (you can read the Guardian’s here) is the same you’d follow for yourself: make sure your pet is in the shade and hydrated, only go for walks in the coolest parts of the day and avoid being barefoot on pavements. Veterinarians, perhaps counterintuitively, also discourage shaving your pet’s fur as it actually helps keep them cool. There are even pet-safe sunscreen options that will keep your fur babies safe from the sun and prevent sunburn. Nimo
We want to hear from you
How are you dealing with the extreme heat in the UK or elsewhere?
Reply to this email to let us know or email first.edition@theguardian.com
What else we’ve been reading
What happens to women who regret motherhood – and have to deal with the consequences on their own? Dianna Karklin’s remarkable exploration of that taboo subject is hard to forget. “I love my daughter as a person, but I regret becoming a mother,” one woman says. “I know it’s difficult to understand.” Archie
In this informative and comprehensive piece, Hannah Devlin explores what the future of the pandemic might look like, as we enter the third major wave of Covid-19 this year. Nimo
The Conservative leadership race is undeniably diverse, but Kenan Malik is unconvinced that this is the beacon of change that the Tories might say that it is. “It is the policies that matter,” Malik argues, “whoever delivers them.” Nimo
Ten years after the 2012 Olympics, its opening ceremony remains a nostalgic touchstone for a certain kind of vanquished British liberalism. Steve Rose’s brilliant piece reflects on the mourning that has followed – and asks: was this in fact “an illusion of something that never really existed?” Archie
I found this interview by Lucy Clark with two-time world champion debater, Bo Seo, fascinating. He explains what an argument about the dishes is likely to really be about – and how to disagree productively. Nimo
Sport
Golf | Cameron Smith won his first major with a remarkable final round of 64 at the 150th Open, moving past overnight leader Rory McIlroy, who missed a chip to force a playoff on the final hole.
Football | Netherlands beat Switzerland 4-1 to seal their place in the quarter finals of Euro 2022. Sweden hammered Portugal 5-0 to take their own place in the last eight.
Cricket | India were comfortable victors over England in the third one-day international. Rishabh Pant’s unbeaten 125 helped his team to 261-5 after England were all out for 259.
The front pages
“Red alert: ‘ferocious’ heatwave set to send temperatures beyond 40C” – the Guardian leads with the weather and a picture of firefighters on duty in France. “Blowtorch Britain” says the Mirror, as “42C record heat is on”. The Metro alliterates also with “Meltdown Monday” while the Telegraph throws together “Heatwave meltdown brings UK to a halt”. “Hotter than the Sahara” is how the Sun puts it. Others use the weather for their front-page pic, but splash on the Tory leadership. The strongest wording is probably in the Times, which has “Sunak attacks ‘socialist’ Tories” – the paper calls last night’s debate a “bitter TV clash”. “Mordaunt and Truss No 10 rivalry ignites” says the i. Penny Mordaunt called for an end to “toxic smears” but the Express says “No chance! Race for No 10 gets personal”. On the Daily Mail’s front, the attack line du jour takes precendence over immediate coverage of the debate: “Mordaunt flouted No 10 ban to meet boycotted group”. Also-ran Nadhim Zahawi (the chancellor) anchors the Financial Times’ top story today: “Battle looms over plans for City shake-up to prime ‘Big Bang 2.0’”.
Today in Focus
How right-to-buy fuelled the UK housing crisis
Why did the government’s decide to sell off millions of council houses four decades ago? Lynsey Hanley and Vicky Spratt on how right-to-buy, high rents, and a housing shortage has left the dream of buying out of reach to millions.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The first-ever Africa-wide meeting to set out plans for the conservation of nature across the continent is kicking off this week in Kigali. In a bid to prioritise sustainable development, 3,000 delegates, including indigenous and community representatives, protected area directors and youth leaders, are set to descend on the Rwandan capital to lay out and enforce long-term strategies that would stop the rapid loss of species and habitats. The summit is being viewed as a landmark moment that could begin to reverse decades of policies that have led to habitat and species loss in protected areas.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
