Most draft classes are defined by their elite prospects, and by that definition, the 2022 class that will start filtering into Indianapolis this week simply isn’t very good.
If you’re looking for a Myles Garrett or Chase Young, you won’t find one. There isn’t a Ja’Marr Chase or Laremy Tunsil, and there certainly isn’t a Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow. And I’ve been aware of this for a while, but after talking with ESPN’s Todd McShay for nearly an hour—going through the group, position-by-position, piece-by-piece—what I’d heard over the past few months was confirmed.
“Just think about the last 50 minutes we’ve had on the phone; we’ve said that [for] just about every position,” McShay says. “Even the tackles; they’re great, you’ve got Evan Neal, [Ikem] Ekwonu and [Charles] Cross. But I’d take the two guys last year, [Penei] Sewell and [Rashawn] Slater, over these guys. And not even knowing what they did as rookies, just based on the grade. They’re just slightly better. …
“There’s depth at cornerback. We’re talking about five guys potentially in the top 40, 50 picks, but we’d jump off at No. 6 if we compared to last year. The receivers, it’s like two years ago, when you don’t have one in the top 10 picks, but it’s a really good group with a lot of depth and you could have five, six first-rounders when it’s done. Just about every position, you can say that when you’re comparing to the last two, three drafts.”
Which is where we divide what the public thinks about the draft and how NFL teams see it. Not having the chance to put Jadeveon Clowney or Deshaun Watson on the marquee does, without question, hurt the curb appeal of any year’s draft. This year won’t be splashy, but if your team is drafting outside of the top 15 or so picks, it will be downright desirable. There’s depth at premium positions, starters available into the third and fourth rounds, and different types of players at lots of spots to fit different systems.
Then, there’s the fact that this combine is shaping up to be a very important one for a lot of the class’s key prospects, for a variety of reasons, as the combine returns to Indianapolis after last year’s absence due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
So, as we officially open the book on Draft Season 2022—with our extended breakdown with McShay and material from my own notebook thrown in—what the draft might lack in star power will be made up for with intrigue. And while casual fans may tune out the combine, there will be plenty for people who like paying closest attention to the league.
Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports (Ekwonu); Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY Network (Rodgers); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (O'Connell)
Back from a quick ski trip, we’re locked into the new offseason and officially turning the page to 2022. Inside this week’s MMQB column, you will find:
- A deeper look into the Kevin O’Connell–Kwesi Adofo-Mensah pairing in Minnesota.
- A reasonable contractual solution for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
- Proof that Josh McDaniels is a new man in Las Vegas.
- An examination of the churn inside Sean McVay’s staffing machine.
But we’ll start with the combine, which is where I’m headed Monday morning.
We begin with the one prospect we believe will take over Indy. For an unsexy draft class, we have a perfectly representative prospect: N.C. State lineman Ikem Ekwonu, or “Ickey” for short.
“If you were to poll the average person out there—not NFL teams; obviously NFL teams have different opinions, and know more than anyone in the world—it’d probably be ‘O.K. It’s Evan Neal and this other guy, Ekwonu?’” McShay says. “When we leave the combine, it’s going to be, ‘Oh, Ikem Ekwonu, that guy who blew up the combine.’ He could be the first overall pick. And there’s going to be memes and all of it; I think it’s going to be that.”
Ekwonu is not the only one who has plenty to gain at the combine.
“There’s a lot of guys that have a lot—I don’t want to say hanging on it—but there’s a lot of anticipation to see a lot of really highly-rated players work out,” McShay says. “Drake London coming off his injury, Kyle Hamilton coming off his injury. Derek Stingley, where you been the last two years? George Pickens, are you back, are you healthy, what’s the medical? Are you healthy enough to put up times that match the tape?”
What the NFL lacks in headlines, it should make up for in story lines that will start to come into focus at the combine and continue to evolve over the next two months.
With that in mind, our focus with McShay will be there, and where I believe your focus will turn when following the draft through to April 28-30 in Las Vegas, with some fascinating questions needing answers.
• Kevin Hanson’s MMQB Top 100 Big Board 1.0
Is Ekwonu going to be the first pick? Usually, you hear players connected to specific teams this early in the draft process. But two teams have already told me to keep an eye on the connection between the Jaguars and Ekwonu, with GM Trent Baalke and coach Doug Pederson potentially looking to beef up a scattershot crew that didn’t do a great job protecting Lawrence through his rookie season. One team told me the Jacksonville/Ekwonu connection makes sense because Baalke has always favored explosive linemen. The Wolfpack’s redshirt sophomore is certainly one of them, and if he has the sort of Tristan Wirfs–type of workout some are expecting (Wirfs ran in the 4.8s and was freakish across the board) then it would match what Pederson had when he won a Super Bowl with the Eagles.
“[Jason] Peters ran like 4.9, Lane Johnson ran a 4.79,” McShay says. “That's Ekwonu.”
Now, that does not mean it will be unanimous that Ekwonu is rated the best of the bunch, even at his position. Some teams think he actually might be an NFL guard rather than a left tackle; Alabama’s Evan Neal is similarly off-the-charts athletic (questions around Neal have to do with polish, which is a bit of a red flag given that very few high-end players come out of Nick Saban’s program raw), while Mississippi State’s Charles Cross may be the most natural left tackle of the three (but only has one year of elite-level play).
What if tackle-needy teams have doubts about taking one high in the draft? Waiting, for once, is an option. McShay has 14 tackles within his top 150, where he’d normally have 10 or 11. Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning and Central Michigan’s Bernard Raimann might also go in the first-round, while Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele, the 6' 9", 379-pound Australian-born lineman, needs a lot of work but is bursting with potential.
The quarterbacks are as advertised—not good. Most, if not all, NFL folks I’ve talked to have said all five first-round quarterbacks from last year are better than anyone in this year’s class. One source said he would take those five, plus the Texans’ Davis Mills, over the entire group. In that way, this feels a little like 2013, when the only quarterback to go in the first round, E.J. Manuel, was universally seen as a reach and turned out to be one.
“I actually have equal grades on Malik [Willis] and Kenny [Pickett],” McShay says. “I have Malik 20, Kenny 21, [Matt] Corral 25 overall. If I’m being honest, that is probably a little high just knowing that they always go higher, in terms of grade. But my point is, you would start at six with this year’s class.”
McShay calls Pickett a poor man’s Mac Jones (also, get ready for a lot of hand-size talk on the Pitt product), and agreed when I said I had heard Ole Miss’s Corral called a poor man’s Zach Wilson. As for Willis, McShay sees the former Liberty star as the one prospect in the group with the kind of untapped potential that might make someone believe there might be something there.
“Some guys really love Willis. Other guys think, ‘I'm getting Jalen Hurts, at best,’” McShay says. “I think he’s more athletic, a more dynamic athlete and he definitely has a stronger arm, but Hurts was more mature and won bigger games in bigger scenes. … Malik has the biggest upside, but there’s probably the lowest floor of all the guys.”
So, essentially, Willis needs someone to go all-in on and build an offense for him.
“No one’s Lamar [Jackson] athleticism-wise, like the Ravens went all-in on his mobility and what he can do and built the whole organization around that,” McShay says. “The same with the Bills and Josh Allen. They developed him and he always had the arm talent; he just had to work on timing and the accuracy has improved greatly from Wyoming. And Jalen Hurts, the same with the Eagles. They went all in on Hurts this past year and he really developed and improved for a good portion of the year.
It will take someone to believe in Willis and say, per McShay, “This is what we’re doing. We’re changing everything.”
Beyond Willis, Corral and Pickett, there is Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, North Carolina’s Sam Howell, and then a cliff. McShay says Nevada’s Carson Strong is the sixth amid the depth chart and carries serious mobility concerns, even when accounting for injuries last year. So … yeah, not a great year to be looking for a quarterback.
Brad Penner/USA Today Sports
Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd? This is a good year for off-ball linebackers, and the two headliners are Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. Dean may slip because his measureables aren’t ideal, but McShay sees a heat-seeking star in the sawed-off guy with the short arms who was the nerve center of the Bulldogs’ national title-winning defense.
“The way he flies, I don’t care what he runs in the 40. I swear to God, I don’t even have to write it down,” McShay says. “I’m not saying I’m always right, but I would much rather go off the tape at Georgia playing Alabama twice, playing the schedule they did in 15 games this past season. It’s not like we’re talking about an FCS guy or a smaller-school Group of 5 guy. This is Georgia, and he was the star on that defense. Yeah, he was protected well at times, but his blitzing? He’s Zach Thomas.”
McShay did concede the difference between Dean and Lloyd is small, with the divide coming in third-down value. Lloyd, a former high school safety, is a bit better in man-to-man coverage, while Dean is better as a blitzer. “They’re today’s off-the-ball linebacker is what they are. Three-down guys, can rush, can cover.” Beyond those two, there is Wisconsin’s Leo Chenal and Dean’s teammates, Channing Tindall and Quay Walker as solid Day 2 prospects, per McShay.
There are a lot of good receivers, so who is the best? If the “draft is flush with wideouts” seems like a recurring theme, that’s because it is. In this era, every year is a strong year at receiver. There’s no Chase, but there are good players all over the place, on the outside and in the slot. McShay tells me he has 19(!) receivers carrying first-, second- or third-round grades, up from a three-year average of 13 from 2019 to ’21. It will come down to a matter of each team’s preferences.
“[USC’s] Drake London is unique because he’s 6' 4", he’s lean and he’s coming off the injury,” McShay says. “He’s by the far the best on contested catches, he’s got the basketball background, and the thing about him that is unique is he’ll break some ankles in the open field. … [Ohio State’s] Garrett Wilson is going to run a 4.5, but he plays faster than they say he’s going to run and he can get in and out of breaks in a flash, great running vertical routes and adjusting to the ball in the air. He’s not CeeDee Lamb, but he reminds me of that. … [Ohio State’s Chris] Olave is an absolute burner and a silky-smooth route runner, too. [Arkansas’ Treylon] Burks is a big slot receiver who doesn’t accelerate initially, but he’s an angle killer with those long strides, and when he gets to top speed, he’s surprisingly fast.”
Beyond those four, there is Alabama’s Jameson Williams and Georgia’s George Pickens. Williams, who transferred from Ohio State and is an absolute speed demon, was trending toward being the first receiver selected before tearing his ACL in the national title game (and will likely still go top 20). Pickens was seen as that type of prospect coming out of last year but tore his ACL last spring and only played in the Bulldogs’ final three games (the SEC title game and two playoff games), so a strong workout could really boost his stock.
The next tier also has plenty of enticing options. Kentucky’s Wan’Dale Robinson was brought to my attention last month as a slot who could benefit from Deebo Samuel’s breakout season with the Niners as a do-everything type. Penn State’s Jahar Dotson, Purdue’s David Bell, Memphis’s Calvin Austin (another potential combine star) and Boise State’s Khalil Shakir are other slots to keep an eye on, along with South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert, NDSU’s Christian Watson, Bama’s other ACL-affected receiver, John Metchie, as potential down-the-line values outside.
Sauce Gardner or Derek Stingley Jr.? One NFC exec told me Gardner, the 6' 3" Cincinnati star, is the best player in the draft. Others have come around to Gardner having a place inside the top 10. Meanwhile, Stingley’s case is a fascinating one. He was one of the best players on LSU’s national-title team in 2019 as a true freshman, but due to injury and the program’s instability, he hasn’t since shown what he could do.
“Gardner didn’t give up more than 13 yards in a game this past year and never gave up a touchdown in his career,” McShay says. “You can poke a hole here and there in his game, but he’s as shutdown as you’re going to find in the college game. Stingley, let’s put it this way: Gardner has done it more consistently, but not necessarily at the level of Stingley’s 2019 tape, so you've seen it more recently and there’s concern about the injuries and where Stingley’s mindset is at.
“But if it’s the tape from 2021 for Gardner versus every tape from 2019 for Stingley, I'm taking Stingley. … That 2019 tape is as good a cornerback tape as I've seen in years, and don't forget he was a true freshman playing at LSU against SEC wide receivers, going up against guys like [D.K.] Metcalf and A.J. Brown.”
After that, Clemson’s Andrew Booth has size and length, as does UTSA’s Tariq Woolen, a 6' 3" converted receiver. With a good recent history in developing defensive backs, Washington has produced two high-end corners in Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon (“Gordon, the record’s going to skip when he works out, I’m told,” says McShay). Auburn’s Roger McCreary, Florida’s Kaiir Elam and Gardner’s UC teammate, Coby Bryant, are in the tier behind Gardner and Stingley.
Could Kyle Hamilton be the first safety to go in the top four in 31 years? The last one was Bill Belichick’s first pick as a head coach—Eric Turner, No. 2 in 1991. The safeties who were selected the highest since (Sean Turner in ’04, Eric Berry in ’10) went fifth. Hamilton has a shot to go higher than those two as a 6' 4" unicorn of a defensive back.
“I’ve got him as the No. 2 player, [Aidan] Hutchinson then Hamilton,” McShay says. “I just finished his tape, the update of it, and the best comp I could come up with was he’s a mix of Derwin James and Justin Simmons. I see Derwin in his game, but I don’t think he’s Derwin. He’s kind of that long, rangy guy.”
Which, of course, is pretty good.
Which pass rusher will be the best? Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson has all the momentum, and it seems fair to guess he won’t get past his hometown Lions at No. 2. Is he Garrett or Young? Nope. But he’s going to be a middle-of-the-fairway top-five pick for someone and likely to go before Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, who might be a more explosive athlete but lacks the size and motor of Hutchinson.
The dropoff to the next tier of edge rusher isn’t huge.
“You got Hutchinson and Thibodeaux near the top,” McShay says. “[Georgia’s] Travon Walker is more of a power player that’s going to play outside and then can reduce inside on obvious passing downs. [Purdue’s George] Karlaftis is more of a power player, too. There are a bunch of traditional guys like [Florida State’s] Jermaine Johnson, Boye Mafe from Minnesota and Myjai Sanders from Cincinnati. It could be late first round for one of those guys. [Michigan’s David] Ojabo is another one. He’s better than some of those guys from a pure talent standpoint, but I don’t think there’s a huge difference.”
If you are a team that needs help getting after the quarterback, it’s here—and probably beyond the first round, even if there’s not that one player you’d build an entire defense around.
And if you add all of this up, you’ll see a class that may not have a ton to sell to the public but enough help to bring to your team. Provided, again, you are already doing O.K. at quarterback.
Kyusung Gong/Associated Press
VIKINGS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FRONT-OFFICE SYNERGY
In 2016, Chip Kelly’s lone year as Niners coach, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell carried interesting titles in San Francisco—the former was the team’s manager of football research and development, while the latter worked with the coaching staff under a “special projects” title. No one knew what the future would hold for either of them, other than they were both bright, promising people to have in the pipeline. And with each in an “ideas” type of job, it was natural they would find each other and cross paths.
“[My role] encompassed a lot of different things, a lot of different position groups, a lot of different aspects of coaching for Chip Kelly,” O’Connell says from his office Wednesday. “It was a great experience. We obviously weren’t very successful, but from a standpoint of personal growth and development, it was huge for me. I know right around that time for [Kwesi], it was very similar.
“He was really a big part of what was going on in the front office and from a scouting and preparation standpoint. The way that building was set up, there were some real unique times where he and I could connect at lunch or just walking the halls, him swinging by my office. I always had so much respect for him and viewed him as a really intelligent guy, but also a guy that could make things sound simple and relatable to whoever he was talking to.”
O’Connell then laughed and said, “Lord knows sometimes I need that as much as anybody out there.”
Six years later, he’s getting it every day.
Last month, the Vikings hired the 41-year-old Adofo-Mensah as GM and soon after brought in the 36-year-old O’Connell as head coach. The personal and philosophical connection between the two was apparent to everyone involved, a relationship born half a decade ago in California, where a young commodities trader was getting into football and an ex-NFL QB was getting his feet wet. O’Connell told me they had found ways to keep in touch over the years, whether it was running into each other at games or the combine, and each was on the other’s radar as their parallel dreams of becoming a head coach and GM became more real ahead of this year’s hiring cycle. O’Connell’s second interview, which took place north of Los Angeles after Adofo-Mensah was hired, only confirmed the link between the two was still there.
“When we started talking in the interview process—just how similar some of our philosophical beliefs toward a team and how you want to go about building a culture and a roster and an organization were—it just felt like a match to me,” O’Connell says. “And it wasn’t a surprise, knowing his background and some of the great coaches and front office folks he had been collaborating and connected with. It made a ton of sense.”
Among those beliefs, per O’Connell: How both view the quarterback position, building a quarterback-friendly system that marries the run and pass, installing schemes on both sides that are simple to run and difficult to counter. Plus, finding players who love football and are great teammates.
“There was a lot of times where I wouldn’t go as far to say as we were finishing each other sentences,” O’Connell said, “but there was a real connection there, that we laughed and joked, even with the rest of the interview group.”
Having that sort of synergy is a great jumping-off point for any new GM-coach pairing. Here are a few more things from my talk with O’Connell:
• O’Connell was hired on Feb. 16, which makes him the latest-timed hire in recent memory, outpacing recent Super Bowl assistants Frank Reich (Feb. 11), Kyle Shanahan (Feb. 6), Matt Patricia (Feb. 5), Zac Taylor and Brian Flores (Feb. 4). When he and I talked, he had been on the job a week. With the combine was just days away, he was acutely aware of the time crunch.
“I’ve got to steal time in the mornings, at nights, whatever I can do to make sure that I feel good about where I’m at from a standpoint of our offensive, defensive and special teams systems, while also having a great feel for our roster and how it's all going to come together with free agency and the draft,” he says.
The godsend: For now, he’s staying in a hotel a few football fields from the team’s sparkling facility in suburban Minneapolis. He gets in at 5 every morning and works until 9 or 10 p.m. to catch up. To steal the time he needs to watch tape, he closes his door for the first and last few hours of each day. It’s something he picked up from his old boss, Sean McVay, who has long practiced the art for sectioning off a part of his day to get his personal work done so he could be available to others. “I’ve learned it from him, because I know I was always waiting to come in and start bugging him,” he said. “I learned to kind of give him his time.” O’Connell joked that he is working on teaching his own coaches to do the same.
• O’Connell spoke about his experience with this year’s champion Rams and how that team became driven by its players, something we detailed in last week’s column with how Raheem Morris approached coaching Aaron Donald in the Super Bowl.
“That’s real. Albert, it’s real,” he says. “It’s not a matter of power, leveraging opportunities or things like that. It's a real connection that, when you got the right guys and they have that kind of ownership over what you're doing both schematically and as you build your team, it’s only going to be that much easier to have younger players come in and learn from the veterans and be able to really put together the best possible group that you can.”
You’d figure O’Connell would want to bring that to Minnesota? The answer is yes, but he emphasized it takes time to get there. It’s not like he or his coaches can snap their fingers and get the team there by October.
“It’s definitely part of it, but that can be taken out of context sometimes, too,” he continues. “The player-led thing is something you hope to build toward, but the biggest thing is just having a culture built on the right principles of consistent collaboration and built on the communication that takes place so that everybody feels involved, invested. And that’s where the ownership comes from.”
• As for the players themselves, the question everyone wants to ask O’Connell is where he stands with Kirk Cousins, his quarterback in Washington in 2017 who is entering a contract year and his fifth season as the Vikings’ starter.
“I have a lot of respect for him and the level at which he’s played the position at for a long time now, the consistency, the durability,” he says. “There’s a lot to like about where he’s at in his career and the experiences that he’s had and continued growth. That’s the important thing, is that he continues to chase the growth and try to chase that excellence he's hunting as a quarterback and as a leader. … But he’s done a lot of good things. You watch the tape, you just purely turn on the tape and you see a guy playing the position at a really high level, in complete control of his game leading the unit. So, I’m excited about getting him going and how we're going to build it.”
The good news, of course, is O’Connell has experience with building an offense and knows exactly what he’s getting in Cousins. O’Connell says he loves “the detail and the structure at which he goes about preparing for an OTA, for a training camp practice, for a preseason game on into the regular season. I mean, he’s consistently going to be who he is.”
This week, O’Connell will be at the combine with the Vikings’ brain trust, then go right back and try to make up for that lost time and catch up. With the coaching staff pretty much filled out, O’Connell and his assistants are deep into work on learning the Vikings’ roster. They’ll teach the scouts the new system and work on the free-agent and draft classes from there.
There’s a lot to do, for sure. And it’s a good thing the new coach and GM are already on the same page.
Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK
TEN TAKEAWAYS
Most of the week’s machinations tell me there’s a big part of Aaron Rodgers who just wants to stay in Green Bay. And with every contract restructuring, the Packers are sending another smoke signal to their quarterback that they’re willing to sell out their future to enhance the core he’s played and won with, the last three years under coach Matt LaFleur. With the help of a veteran lead negotiator for a rival team, we put together a contract extension for Rodgers that protects Rodgers himself and the team coming out of what has been, at times, an awkward year.
- Terms: 2 years, $100 million extension ($100 million guarantee).
- Total value: 3 years, $126.97 million ($26.47 million base/$500K workout bonus for ’22 folded in).
- 2022 money: $1.12 million base, $40 million signing bonus-*, $40 million roster bonus, $500K workout bonus.
- 2023 money: $7.88 million base, $500K workout bonus.
- 2024: $35.97 million base-**, $500K workout bonus.
- 2025–26: Dummy years to spread signing bonus hit.
- 2022 cap number: $33.44 million (including $16.32 million of dead money from previous deal).
- 2023 cap number: $29.20 million (including $4.82 million of dead money from previous deal).
(*-$35 million of signing bonus deferred to February 2023; **-All 2022, ’23 money full guaranteed, $10 million of 2024 base, all workout bonuses fully guaranteed.)
Would it require a lot of funding and breaking precedents? Sure. And would it put the Packers in a tough spot cap-wise for a year or two after Rodgers walks away? Yeah, that would happen, too. “But if you look at any of these Hall of Fame quarterbacks, they never leave their teams in a good cap situation. And to be fair, nor should they,” says our capologist. In the short term, which is ultimately what this is about for Rodgers and the Packers, it would help. A lot. It saves the team more than $13 million on this year’s cap (Rodgers’ current 2022 cap number is $46.66 million) and gives it a manageable number to work off of next year. And here’s the truth, if Green Bay and Rodgers work things out, this isn’t about what happens in 2024 (Rodgers turns 41 that December) and beyond. It’s about winning now. Which, based on how Green Bay is currently built beyond Rodgers himself, it probably should be doing anyway.
Derek Carr’s words serve as full confirmation that coach Josh McDaniels is handling his early days in Vegas much differently than he did his start in Denver. Here’s what the quarterback told Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal about McDaniels and GM Dave Zielger: “They’ve been super-awesome. They’ve been great. I’m just looking forward to getting to know them. We’re doing the whole business relationship thing, but hopefully, we can get our families together and start getting to know each other and start building that unity that we had last year.”
Let’s just say you wouldn’t have heard Jay Cutler say anything like that in February 2009—the relationship between he and McDaniels started with basically the opposite of a sizzle reel, with McDaniels showing Cutler where he needed work right off the bat, and Cutler, at the time of the game’s most promising young quarterbacks, taking the slings as more or less personal shots. There’s no need to relitigate that situation; the conclusion of it wasn’t great for either party, but the contrast in this case is stark and a real sign McDaniels is putting what he said in his introductory press conference (that he needs to deal with people better than he did in Denver) into immediate action. I’m on record as saying McDaniels 2.0 is going to be dynamite as a head coach.
Liam Coen is an excellent example of how Sean McVay’s program is developing and churning out coaches. Coen’s acumen as a coach was sort of one of those under-the-radar open secrets of New England college football—those who run in those circles knew, and slowly word spread, not unlike it once did with an offensive coordinator at New Hampshire named Chip Kelly. The ex-UMass quarterback bounced from Brown to Rhode Island, back to Brown, then back to UMass before becoming Maine’s offensive coordinator. During his coaching stint at UMass under Mark Whipple, Coen was pass-game coordinator and QBs coach, working alongside a young line coach named Shane Waldron. Waldron parlayed that role into a quality-control job with Washington in 2016, where he worked under McVay, who was Jay Gruden’s OC, and McVay took Waldron with him. That’s where you can tie Coen to the Rams’ coach-development machine. Here we go:
• Matt LaFleur’s departure for Tennessee in 2018 happened a little later in the game because Mike Vrabel’s hire came nearly three weeks after the season ended. For the Rams, it meant they had already lost the chance to entice QBs coach Greg Olson to stay by giving him more responsibility, since Olson was already gone to Oakland to be Jon Gruden’s OC.
• By then, Olson had already been replaced as QBs coach by assistant receivers coach Zac Taylor. With Taylor’s old position open, Waldron put in a strong recommendation for Coen. Coen hit a home run in his interview and landed the assistant receivers job.
• Meanwhile, in LaFleur’s absence, Waldron was promoted from tight ends coach to pass-game coordinator, then added QBs coach to his title in 2019 when Taylor left for the Bengals. That tight ends job went to Wes Phillips and Coen became assistant QBs coach to backstop Waldron. The open OC title then went to O’Connell, coming from Washington, where he had replaced McVay.
• Waldron then was named Seahawks OC, pushing Phillips up to pass-game coordinator. And as that happened, Coen got the Kentucky OC job.
• Then, O’Connell got the Vikings job, made Phillips his OC, and that left the opening for Coen to return as OC, with Olson coming back as a senior offensive assistant.
And if you’re looking for where this goes next, that assistant receivers title Coen held went to ex-NFL quarterback Zac Robinson, who moved over to assistant quarterbacks coach last year and is on his way up. The bottom line: A pipeline has been developed to the point where the Rams lost O’Connell and had a readymade replacement who coached two positions over three years in the program, and since went off to call plays in the SEC. Which is where you want to be when losing up-and-coming young coaches becomes the norm, as it has in L.A.
While we’re there, the TV network dynamic with coaches isn’t going away. At the start of the 2020 season, I remember the reaction when I reported that 10 coaches were making eight figures annually, on a new-money basis. People were surprised, to say the least. But should they be? One-hundred-and-seventy-three players make more than that now. Here’s a short list of players at the $10-million-per-year mark:
- Chargers OT Bryan Bulaga
- Bengals DE Sam Hubbard
- Saints QB Taysom Hill
- Washington CB Kendall Fuller
- Cowboys OT La’el Collins
Opinions will vary on Hill, but the others are really good players. Are they as valuable as a strong head coach? It’s hard to argue they are. To me, what the TV networks could do here is captain a market correction. If they pursue coaches like McVay with Tony Romo money (Romo signed a 10-year, $180 million deal with CBS, per Andrew Marchand of the New York Post), it will likely put teams at the crossroads where network money has put the league with its officials. The NFL has kept its officials part-time in large part because it’s cheaper that way. When Fox came for Mike Pereira and Dean Blandino, ESPN for John Parry, CBS for Gene Steratore and NBC for Terry McAulay, the league had to decide whether it wanted to compete with the networks to keep its best officials. To this point, the league has decided not to, which is why those officials made the decision to leave more for comfortable, less stressful jobs.
I’d bet if teams had their backs to the wall in a similar spot, they would not let go of good coaches like McVay. The NFL is too competitive and the best coaches are too valuable for teams to let that happen. My guess is coaches’ salaries are about to jump significantly. A few coaches make a lot more than people realize. But based on what these coaches are actually worth and how much money the league generates, the reality is that a pretty good percentage of them are still underpaid.
Ali Marpet’s surprise retirement wasn’t such a surprise to those who knew him best. The idea that he could leave football early had been on his radar for a while, going back to when he signed a five-year, $55.125 million deal in October 2018. Coming out of Division III Hobart, Marpet was never under the illusion earning such a contract was even remotely automatic. By the time he got to Tampa Bay, he set financial goals for when he figured he would be set for life, also knowing his second contract was like most NFL contracts—good for three years, as his reps would tell him, and then “we’ll see.” Hitting his monetary goal would coincide with the third year of that contract, which was this year.
So, during this season, Marpet started talking seriously with those around him about the idea of walking after the season concluded and drawing up a plan for post-football life. He won his first Super Bowl last year. He made his first Pro Bowl this year. He exceeded so much of what he thought was possible. The one thing that might have kept him around—Tom Brady asking him to come back—came off the table with Brady’s own retirement after the Bucs’s playoff loss against the Rams.
Good for Marpet. He somehow made it from Hobart to the second round of the 2015 draft, to starting from Day One, to being a multiyear team captain, Super Bowl champion and Pro Bowler—parlaying all of it into the financial freedom to make a decision like this. In last week’s MAQB, I detailed why guys like Aaron Donald considering early retirement is a good thing for all players—mostly because it means they now have more information and resources to make smarter decisions about their future—and it applies to Marpet, like it did to Calvin Johnson, Patrick Willis and Jerod Mayo. What’s next? I hear Marpet is looking at getting his master’s degree and plans to work in the mental-health field. As the son of an Emmy Award-winning videographer and a musician, Marpet thinks a little differently, and he is in position to pursue more with his health intact and set a cool example for players who come after him.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
I’ve said this before—Matt Nagy could wind up being Andy Reid’s successor in Kansas City. Part of the timing of Nagy’s return to the Chiefs this week had to do with the team hammering out offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s situation. Bringing Bieniemy back on a one-year deal makes sense, but losing pass-game coordinator Mike Kafka to the Giants is a blow. The team must be ready for Bieniemy’s potential departure, either to be a head coach or call plays somewhere else, and Kafka had been lined up to succeed him under that scenario. So having Nagy ready to roll was always going to make sense. When I’ve made my coaching-carousel calls over the past few years, the “what’s next” question has been raised for Kansas City—Reid is in his 60s, and Nagy’s name has consistently come up as an answer over the past six months after it became clear his time in Chicago would be short. He’s close with GM Brett Veach, his ex-college teammate who would presumably be integral to the search whenever Reid decides to walk away. Nagy also has the trust of Patrick Mahomes, who he helped develop through Mahomes’ redshirt year of 2017.
Did Nagy’s time in Chicago end well? No, it did not. There was staff turnover and the trajectory from Year 1 to Year 4 wasn’t great. Nagy was brought into develop Mitchell Trubisky, but couldn’t get the results he wanted to out of the quarterback position. There is a flip side to this, and that’s that this year was his first losing season after he made the playoffs twice and finished three games over .500 (34-31) coaching in the NFC North over a period when Rodgers won two MVPs and the Vikings made the playoffs twice. With stronger infrastructure around Nagy, it stands to reason he could be pretty good in a second act as a head coach. And by going back to Kansas City, he could be setting all of that up.
I paid attention to Mike Reiss’s Sunday report that the Patriots won’t tag J.C. Jackson, and I think you should, too. In Wednesday’s mailbag, I laid out my reasoning for why a tag-and-trade makes more sense for New England than holding the Pro Bowler on the tag for a year and then letting him go in 2023 (a two-year lag in getting compensation, the potential for having a player who is protecting himself/not all-in for you in 2022). Part of that is I know New England hates the lump-sum implications of having a tagged player on its roster, and I’m guessing Reiss’s premise is the same for a couple reasons.
- A tag between $17 million and $18 million would eat up nearly half of the Patriots’ projected cap space. There’s really no flexibility on that without signing Jackson to an extension.
- Willingness to pay a player at that level sets expectations for others on the roster.
Could an extension happen? Maybe the Patriots make one last run at it. But when the sides talked in the fall about a deal, and before that in the spring, I’m told they weren’t in the same stratosphere—to the point where those two sets of talks, while cordial, didn’t last very long at all. My guess would be the Patriots try to seek out a trade partner ahead of the March 8 deadline to tag Jackson and consider just letting him walk if they can’t find one.
The bar another team here would have to clear, then, would be a 2023 third-round pick (the presumed comp pick coming back for Jackson, if the Patriots are relatively quiet in free agency). It means New England would probably want to find someone willing to give up (at least) a second-rounder and a lucrative long-term deal to land Jackson. It might be difficult to get there, considering a trading team would have to find common financial ground with Jackson and be motivated enough to do so with the knowledge he might just hit the market later in March. It’s an interesting situation all around, and Bill Belichick has pulled off tag-and-trade deals (Matt Cassel, Tebucky Jones) in the past, so what’s complicated shouldn’t be considered impossible.
The Saints’ maneuvers of this week should be considered a positive sign for the team’s short-term outlook. New coach Dennis Allen’s first few weeks on the job have been productive. He got 14th-year offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael to stay on and become play-caller, amid some questions internally over whether Carmichael wanted the role; he retained and promoted two of his most experienced, accomplished defensive lieutenants, making Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard his co-coordinators on that side of the ball; and he, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley got restructures done with Ryan Ramczyk and Michael Thomas. On the coaching side, Allen’s been true to his word that he plans to build on the existing infrastructure in New Orleans, which he was a part of under previous coach Sean Payton.
As for the contract machinations, restructures like the ones the Saints are doing here are a sort of doubling down on the current core, which has won four NFC South titles, made the playoffs five times over the past five years, and affirmation there won’t be a rebuild spurred by a cap reset. On a more granular level, the Michael Thomas restructure is a sign of the improving place the star receiver has with his team after missing the entire 2021 season—there was a point last year, before he underwent surgery, when other teams believed Thomas could be had in a trade. It’s a good start here for Allen in his new seat. Now, on that quarterback question …
Credit to the Steelers for running such a deliberate GM search. Most people believed either pro scouting director Brandon Hunt or VP of football and business administration Omar Khan, or a combination of the two, would be in line to succeed GM Kevin Colbert. Things might still play out that way, but what few paid attention to is that doing so would run counter to the franchise’s history. Colbert himself was an outside hire, coming from Detroit to replace Tom Donahoe. And coach Mike Tomlin was tabbed to succeed Bill Cowher at a time when most expected that one of two internal candidates, Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm, would get the job. The Steelers’ other two Super Bowl–era coaches, Cowher and Chuck Noll, were also outside hires.
So, at the very least, no one should make assumptions on the direction of the GM hire based on the team’s track record of success, because a similar track record in the past didn’t keep the team from going outside the organization to find the aforementioned staffers. And if it is Hunt and/or Khan? Then, at the very least, the team will have done its due diligence and collected some pretty good perspective from a variety of different places (the team has, at this point, interviewed 10 outside candidates from 10 different teams) across the NFL. Which, to me, has been a smart way for the Rooneys to take advantage of the runway Colbert has given them, in announcing he’ll step down four months ahead of time.
I have a few pre-combine quick-hitters. And here they are for you!
• The Cardinals do need new uniforms—and I vote for them reincorporating the state flag and simplifying their look to reflect their standing as one of the league’s oldest franchises.
• While we’re there, Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill tried to calm the waters within his organization this week, in backing his GM, coach and quarterback. But the fact is, if coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray go into next season without extensions, the team won’t be able to escape hovering questions on their respective futures.
• Rodgers’s uncertain status is gumming up the works on the quarterback trade market. At least a few teams, Denver included, appear to be waiting for clarity on 12. Which, realistically, isn’t a big problem since the new league year is still two weeks away.
• Want to know why you don’t hear outrage from other owners over the situations simmering in Dallas and Washington? Perhaps it is because they don’t want anyone digging around in their own trash.
• It’ll be hard logistically for the Colts to move off Carson Wentz after one year, but their silence of late on the subject is a good indicator that things continue to trend that way.
• One interesting element to watch with this year’s free-agent class—the number of top guys who will be pursuing a third NFL contract after completing monster second deals. Among those are Davante Adams, Terron Armstead, Von Miller, Chandler Jones, Allen Robinson, Ryan Jensen and Stephon Gilmore.
• Teams are, indeed, willing to deal for Deshaun Watson without full resolution of the 22 lawsuits filed against him. The biggest question is whether the Texans believe they can get fair value before such resolution comes about.
• The Chiefs’ release of team captain Anthony Hitchens was tough because of what he meant to the group there. But it’s also a good sign the team is effectively replenishing its roster—the emergence of Nick Bolton and Willie Gay gave Kansas City the flexibility to move on from Hitchens, saving the Chiefs money to get players like Orlando Brown signed.
• Jarvis Landry’s social-media comments on his injuries last year reflect the problem with teams’s secrecy on medical matters. While it’s true being quiet in that area can preserve competitive advantages and protect players from being targeted by opponents, it can also be frustrating for players who are struggling on the field without context out there on why.
• Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has worked with his coaches in recent weeks as if he’s going to play in Seattle in 2022. We know the owner wants him there, but we still have yet to hear from Wilson specifically. What coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider say about their quarterback in Indy should be interesting.
SIX FROM THE SIDELINE
1. You don’t need me to tell you this, but the images from Ukraine this past weekend were absolutely horrifying. And the news of families splitting up at the border was heart-breaking. Thoughts are with those trying to escape, as well as those who are bravely staying to defend their country. Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel did a nice job of putting a face to all of them.
2. I reengaged with college basketball a bit last week, and each of the top six teams falling Saturday was spectacular. Having a full-throated NCAA tournament this year, really for the first time in three years, should be awesome.
3. Kyrie Irving’s the same guy he has always been. If any of this surprises you, you haven’t been paying much attention. The Nets are getting what they signed up for.
4. Interesting to see Kentucky hiring away 49ers quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello to try to build on the success they had last year with Coen calling plays. I’m sure the hope is that Scangarello stays a little longer (he’s older than Coen and not the riser Coen was coming in last year) while maintaining some level of continuity in the McVay/Shanahan–styled system the Wildcats ran last year.
5. God, I love skiing. Nothing clears my head better, and I’m glad I got three days out there in Stowe during my kids’ school vacation week. A huge thanks to Stowe’s ski school for showing our two older kids a great time over two of our days there and teaching them a lot. I used to hate going to ski school as a kid, even though I knew it was probably good for me. I didn’t get the sense my kids felt that way at all.
6. Nothing will make you feel more alive than making it back after white-knuckling through a mountain-range interstate during a snowstorm with 18-wheelers flying by you at 90 miles an hour.
BEST OF THE NFL INTERNET
Read this story. Thanks to Ed, for passing it along.
This isn’t NFL–related, but it is sports-related, and the Klitschko brothers are certifiable bad asses.
Perfect delivery by Kittle.
Justin Herbert being really good at golf is … not surprising.
Everyone knows Williams is a big play waiting to happen at all times. Still, that’s a mind-blowing number.
As much a sign of all the quarterback retirements over the last couple years as anything: Barring Ryan Fitzpatrick landing a starting job, Rodgers will likely be the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL next year.
I’m with Brinson here. Nothing Rodgers says or does is by mistake.
And I’m with Silver here. It’d be nice if, from time to time, these players were allowed to be normal dudes in their 20s and 30s without having to worry about generating a headline.
This started because of a trend from the old Street Fighter games, but I 100% support all efforts to bring back the old Super Bowl logos—they were always creative and reflected the game. And then the NFL went to fix what wasn’t broken and wound up breaking something that was really good.
Lawn-mowing cleats for everyone’s favorite TV dad.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
The post–Super Bowl lull is over just as it started, and the NFL offseason is about to come at you. The combine, for all intents and purposes, starts Monday and runs through March 7. The legal tampering period begins March 14, while the new league year kicks off March 16. After that, we’ve got a set of the NFL’s annual meeting March 27–30 and then the ramp-up to the draft will be well underway.
The NFL has always wanted people talking about football non-stop after each season’s end.
The NFL is now getting what it wants.
