The All-Star break is over and the second half of the 2022 season has commenced. That means now is the time for us to revise our preseason predictions.
Back in April, everybody was talking about the Blue Jays as the team to beat in the American League. Then the Yankees ran away with the division. All but one of us picked the Giants to make the playoffs as one of the wild card teams. Now, none of us have them playing postseason games.
O.K., that’s enough of the spoilers. Let’s take a look at the predictions:
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
Tom Verducci
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: Twins (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild Card 2: Mariners (5)
Wild Card 3: Rays (6)
Tom’s Take: The injury to Chris Sale is a blow to the Red Sox. The Mariners may have the best pitching staff among the wild card contenders, and GM Jerry Dipoto will not let the trade deadline pass without trying to end the longest playoff drought in major North American men’s professional sports.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Cardinals (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Braves (4)
Wild Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild Card 3: Brewers (6)
Tom’s Take: The Mets over the Braves in the East is based on the return of Jacob deGrom. The St. Louis–Milwaukee battle is a coin flip.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Rays over Twins
Wild Card Series B: Mariners over Blue Jays
Division Series A: Yankees over Mariners
Division Series B: Astros over Rays
Championship Series: Yankees over Astros
Tom’s Take: The Yankees are just too good, especially with home field advantage. But Houston has the kind of power pitching, both in the rotation and bullpen, to limit their power.
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Cardinals over Brewers
Wild Card Series B: Braves over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Cardinals
Championship Series: Dodgers over Mets
Tom’s Take: The Dodgers should add a veteran bullpen arm at the deadline and may be getting back Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Chris Taylor and Blake Treinen to a loaded roster.
World Series:
Matchup: Yankees over Dodgers in seven games
World Series MVP: Aaron Judge
Tom’s Take: The Yankees’ defense and pitching depth serves them well in the postseason format, especially getting the first-round bye to set up their staff. The format gives too much reward to No. 1 seeds, which is why I am going with the chalk.
Stephanie Apstein
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild Card 2: Rays (5)
Wild Card 3: Mariners (6)
Stephanie’s Take: Yes, Julio Rodríguez will help end the longest postseason drought in major North American men’s professional sports.
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports
National League:
East Winner: Atlanta (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Mets (4)
Wild Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild Card 3: Cardinals (6)
Stephanie’s Take: St. Louis has the top three position players in the league right now, per Baseball Reference’s WAR. That team will make a run.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Mariners over White Sox
Wild Card Series B: Blue Jays over Rays
Division Series A: Yankees over Blue Jays
Division Series B: Astros over Mariners
Championship Series: Yankees over Astros
Stephanie’s Take: An Astro asked me before a game at Yankee Stadium last month, “This could be the ALCS, don’t you think?” Yeah. “We’re gonna win, don’t you think?” Uh ...
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Brewers over Cardinals
Wild Card Series B: Mets over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Mets
Division Series B: Atlanta over Brewers
Championship Series: Dodgers over Atlanta
Stephanie’s Take: If Atlanta gets a pitcher at the deadline, I might revise this prediction upward. Until then, the Dodgers are the best team.
World Series:
Matchup: Yankees over Dodgers in six games
World Series MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
Stephanie’s Take: Sorry for going with chalk here, but a rival executive recently suggested the Yankees might win 120 games, and I agree with him. I think 11 of those wins will come in the postseason.
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AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Emma Baccellieri
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: Twins (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild Card 2: Mariners (5)
Wild Card 3: Guardians (6)
Emma’s Take: My biggest question here: Can the Rays power through the second half given all their injuries? It wouldn’t surprise me if they do. But it’ll be a much rougher road than they might have been hoping for a month ago, and so I picked against them here, despite the fact that they’re a game and a half up for a wild card right now. Which may or may not have been influenced somewhat by how much I’d like to see the Mariners break their playoff drought.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (3)
Central Winner: Brewers (2)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Padres (4)
Wild Card 2: Braves (5)
Wild Card 3: Cardinals (6)
Emma’s Take: The most difficult pick here might have been whether the Cardinals can overtake the Brewers. (St. Louis is currently just half a game back.) But I just like this Milwaukee rotation too much to pick against it here—though much of that is contingent on the starters staying healthy and Freddy Peralta returning in August rather than September.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Twins over Guardians
Wild Card Series B: Blue Jays over Mariners
Division Series A: Yankees over Blue Jays
Division Series B: Astros over Twins
Championship Series: Yankees over Astros
Emma’s Take: Yes, it’s boring to pick top seeds all the way through. But the Yankees and Astros are simply that good—which should make for not only an incredible matchup in the ALCS, but incredible drama, too.
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Cardinals over Brewers
Wild Card Series B: Braves over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Cardinals
Championship Series: Dodgers over Mets
Emma’s Take: Yes, there’s a lot to like about this Mets team, especially if Jacob deGrom can return soon at full strength. (Though, given the history, that’s a load-bearing “if.”) But even as the Dodgers’ depth has been tested this year, they’ve consistently risen to the occasion, and I think we’ll see them in their fourth World Series in six years.
World Series:
Matchup: Yankees over Dodgers in six games
World Series MVP: Aaron Judge
Emma’s Take: Everything about this Yankees season so far has seemed as if it’s just building to the World Series. They have the opportunity to be one of the best teams we’ve seen in recent decades; anything other than a deep playoff run will look like a collapse. But they’re just that good. I think they’ll face real challenges from the Astros and then the Dodgers. But I can’t pick against them.
Bruce Kluckhohn/USA TODAY Sports
Will Laws
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild Card 2: Mariners (5)
Wild Card 3: Rays (6)
Will’s Take: Strangely, I have the same six AL playoff teams I picked during the preseason (albeit in a much different order). It’s pretty wild that the White Sox are only four games back in the Central despite all that’s gone wrong for them so far. I’m betting on Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito looking more like themselves in the second half—as well as the second-softest schedule remaining in baseball, per Tankathon—but wouldn’t be shocked one bit if Minnesota hangs on. The Mariners have rounded into form and play just 18 of their remaining 75 games against teams currently over .500, while Boston’s rotation still doesn’t seem strong enough to outlast the Rays.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Braves (4)
Wild Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild Card 3: Phillies (6)
Will’s Take: Once again sticking with my same six preseason picks in a different permutation. If Paul Goldschmidt eventually cools off from his torrid pace, the Cardinals will probably struggle to conjure enough offense to keep pace in the playoff race. I think the Phillies have just enough firepower in the lineup and rotation to qualify for the field, and will be one of the most motivated teams to improve before the deadline.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: White Sox over Rays
Wild Card Series B: Blue Jays over Mariners
Division Series A: Yankees over Blue Jays
Division Series B: Astros over White Sox
Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
Will’s Take: The Astros are on pace to win 106 games, an 11-game improvement over last year despite the loss of Carlos Correa and just five fewer than the Yankees. Justin Verlander has the stuff and experience to be unfazed entering a potential series-opening matchup in Yankee Stadium and set the tone for Houston’s deep pitching staff. If Houston does top New York, it would become the first franchise to beat the Yankees in its first four playoff matchups against them (Detroit is also currently 3–0 against New York). Elsewhere, Chicago’s righty-heavy lineup could neutralize Tampa Bay’s lefty ace Shane McClanahan, and the Blue Jays’ disappointing rotation and thin bullpen prevents me from sticking with my preseason pick for them to emerge from the AL.
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Brewers over Phillies
Wild Card Series B: Braves over Padres
Division Series A: Braves over Dodgers
Division Series B: Mets over Brewers
Championship Series: Braves over Mets
Will’s Take: Baseball doesn’t usually come down to one player, but I think it’s fair to say that the balance of the NL may hang on Jacob deGrom’s shoulder. He’s dominant enough to act as a near-automatic win for the Mets if he’s healthy. But after another setback this week, albeit one that appears to be minor, I’m just not confident he’ll be at full strength in October. And a Braves pitching staff that was quietly the best in baseball by fWAR in the first half could be poised to capitalize for a return to the Fall Classic, though Atlanta taking the road through the NL West’s top two teams in the first two rounds would certainly present a challenge.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
World Series:
Matchup: Astros over Braves in seven games
World Series MVP: Yordan Álvarez
Will’s Take: Could we have our first World Series rematch since 1978? Both of these squads seem better than they were last year. After going 2 for 20 in last year’s Fall Classic with zero homers, I think Álvarez finds redemption—perhaps against Kenley Jansen, the all-time leader in World Series blown saves—and helps manager Dusty Baker polish off his Hall of Fame career with a ring.
Matt Martell
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Mariners (4)
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays (5)
Wild Card 3: Guardians (6)
Matt’s Take: Well, I felt good about my bold preseason World Series prediction for about a month and a half. Then, the Angels collapsed so hard and so quickly that I’m left only to conclude that they have become the Mets (especially because the Steve Cohen Mets are run more like the Steinbrenner Yankees). There are five true AL playoff teams—yes, I still believe the White Sox are the best team in the Central after their Murphy’s Law of a first half—with the sixth spot as crap shoot between seven clubs: the Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Twins, Guardians, Rangers and, gah, the Angels. (Crap shoots are different than coin flips, after all!) I’m giving the sixth spot to Cleveland, whose final six games of the season come against the Royals, all of which are at home.
One more quick note: I really wanted to pick the Orioles here, but I think they are this year’s version of the 2021 Mariners: Baltimore will be in the hunt until the last game of the year, but ultimately will fall just short.
National League:
East Winner: Atlanta (3)
Central Winner: Cardinals (2)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Mets (4)
Wild Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild Card 3: Phillies (6)
Matt’s Take: One player who could make the biggest impact on the NL playoff race plays for the league’s worst team: Juan Soto. Four of the teams I’m picking to make the playoffs are among the teams likely to be in the mix for him before the Aug. 2 trade deadline. On Tuesday before the All-Star Game, I was talking to someone around the Padres who said they should be among the favorites in the Soto sweepstakes. The bottom half of their lineup is weak and could use some more thump. They have the high-level prospects that it could take to land Soto, and general manager A.J. Preller is unafraid to trade away touted minor leaguers for established major league talent.
The Cardinals have the weakest remaining schedule in the majors, according to Tankathon. But beyond that, they are a really good team that is only going to get better down the stretch, as several key players (Harrison Bader, Yadier Molina, Juan Yepez, Dakota Hudson and, eventually, Jack Flaherty) return from the IL. They’ll need to add pitching by the trade deadline, but either way, they are plenty good to win the NL Central. Plus, this is the deepest St. Louis lineup in nearly a decade, anchored by the likely NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt.
Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Guardians over White Sox
Wild Card Series B: Mariners over Blue Jays
Division Series A: Yankees over Mariners
Division Series B: Astros over Guardians
Championship Series: Yankees over Astros
Matt’s Take: The Yankees are the best team in baseball, and they’ll be even better after the trade deadline. Home-field advantage will help them out in the ALCS. Can you imagine a more hostile environment for a playoff series this year than the Bronx for Yankees-Astros?
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Phillies over Atlanta
Wild Card Series B: Mets over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Mets
Division Series B: Cardinals over Phillies
Championship Series: Dodgers over Cardinals
Matt’s Take: The surprise here is my faith in the Cardinals to reach the NLCS. Against another team, they might have a shot to advance to the World Series, but the Dodgers are just too good.
World Series:
Matchup: Yankees over Dodgers in seven games
World Series MVP: Gleyber Torres
Matt’s Take: If I wanted to be really cheeky, I would’ve picked Soto as my World Series MVP. This is the Yankees’ year, with or without trading for Soto, though surely he would help.
Nick Selbe
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: Guardians (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild-Card 1: Rays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Twins (5)
Wild-Card 3: Mariners (6)
Nick’s Take: The Yankees and Astros are far and away the best two teams in the American League, so much of the drama down the stretch will lie elsewhere. I don’t trust Minnesota’s pitching enough to take the Twins to win the division, but the competition in the Central is weak enough that I think they’ll hold on to a wild-card spot. The race for the final seed will be a good one, but I’ll take the Mariners to finally break through into the postseason field after getting a boost from a deadline trade or two (we can always count on Jerry Dipoto to be active).
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Cardinals (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Braves (4)
Wild Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild Card 3: Phillies (6)
Nick’s Take: The Central division race should be a tight one, but I’d give the Cardinals the edge on the expectation that they’ll be more aggressive at the trade deadline than Milwaukee, who I think will be passed by Philadelphia for the final wild card spot. The same goes in the East, where the Mets will undoubtedly be ready to add on in the coming weeks to hold off the defending champion Braves.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Mariners over Guardians
Wild Card Series B: Rays over Twins
Division Series A: Yankees over Rays
Division Series B: Mariners over Astros
Championship Series: Yankees over Mariners
Nick’s Take: The Mariners in the ALCS? It could happen! Should Seattle get past the wild-card round, the team has proven to be a tough matchup for Houston thus far, winning three out of four series against the Astros in the first half. Logan Gilbert is already an ace, while Robbie Ray has put his slow start behind him and rookie George Kirby has flashed immense talent. As fun as it would be to see the Mariners win the pennant, the Yankees’ pitching is just too good to pick against.
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Cardinals over Phillies
Wild Card Series B: Braves over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Cardinals
Championship Series: Dodgers over Mets
Nick’s Take: The Mets had to go through Los Angeles en route to the 2015 World Series, and they’ll have to do so again in ’22. This time, though, the Dodgers will prevail in what should be an entertaining matchup. The real, most immediate question, though, might be: Will Juan Soto be in this series? If the answer is yes, whichever club he’s on likely will prevail.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
World Series:
Matchup: Dodgers over Yankees in seven games
World Series MVP: Mookie Betts
Nick’s Take: Is this the most inspiring World Series pick? Far from it. But these are simply the two best teams in the league, so at least it would be a star-studded Fall Classic matchup. I’ll give the slightest of nods to the Dodgers, who will win their second championship in three seasons and keep the Yankees in search of their first title since 2009. Betts will add to his trophy case to take home series MVP honors.
Michael Shapiro
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (1)
Central Winner: Twins (3)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild Card 2: Guardians (5)
Wild Card 3: Red Sox (6)
Michael’s Take: The Yankees should remain a regular-season juggernaut through September, and the Astros should also comfortably secure a first-round bye. As for the rest of the AL, good luck prognosticating the next two-plus months. The Twins face two challengers in an upstart Cleveland team and a frustrating Chicago squad, while all three wild card spots could be snagged by the AL East. The last week of the season could feature high-stakes battles across the American League.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Cardinals (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild Card 1: Braves (4)
Wild Card 2: Brewers (5)
Wild Card 3: Padres (6)
Michael’s Take: Both the NL East and NL Central title could go down to the final week as the Dodgers cruise in the West, and the wild card crowd should be packed as we roll into the end of September. A small part of me wanted to bet on Philadelphia’s lineup sparking a run to the postseason, but then again, should we ever trust the Phillies? We’ll give the Brewers and Padres the final playoff spots after further consideration.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Twins over Red Sox
Wild Card Series B: Blue Jays over Guardians
Division Series A: Yankees over Blue Jays
Division Series B: Astros over Twins
Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
Michael’s Take: We’re likely on a collision course for another Yankees-Astros battle this October. Such a proposition should send shudders through the Bronx. New York’s dominant regular season shouldn’t be ignored, and when firing on all cylinders, there’s arguably no better roster in baseball. But Houston would be well positioned for a seven-game battle. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Justin Verlander have each mowed down the Yankees in 2022 and previous postseasons, and Yordan Álvarez would arguably be the best hitter in the series. The Astros continue to roll along as a World Series threat despite a pair of massive free-agent departures in recent years. Their organizational excellence could fuel another pennant run.
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Cardinals over Padres
Wild Card Series B: Braves over Brewers
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Cardinals
Championship Series: Mets over Dodgers
Michael’s Take: The Freddie Freeman Bowl is an ideal outcome for MLB, and it’s a matchup we could frankly see multiple times across the 2020s. The Mets will be grateful if they can avoid either Atlanta or Los Angeles in the NLDS, and while presently imperfect, a healthy New York roster features two Hall of Fame aces, a deep lineup and a potential major addition before Aug. 2. In a crowded National League, betting on Buck Showalter is a solid move.
Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports
World Series:
Matchup: Mets over Astros in seven games
World Series MVP: Francisco Lindor
