It’s my third season sharing the Sports Illustrated power ranking duties with Nick Selbe, and this time of the year is always the most difficult for us to cleanly list these teams from worst to best. It’s hard to decide how much weight to put on preseason expectations and what has actually happened on the field in a small sample size.
What I’m saying here is, don’t be too hard on us. We’re not sure why the Pirates and A’s don’t have losing records, either.
AP Photo/John Froschauer
30. Cincinnati Reds (LW: 27)
The Reds not only won their first game in two weeks by beating St. Louis on Sunday but also claimed their first lead at the end of an inning since their most recent victory (vs. Atlanta on April 10). The 11-game losing streak may be over, but one win won’t save Cincinnati from the dark, damp basement of the SI power rankings. The Reds rank last in runs per game (2.69) and second-to-last in ERA (5.47), so no one in that cellar-dwelling clubhouse can afford to point fingers. Well, except maybe at Phil Castellini.
29. Washington Nationals (LW: 28)
Is Father Time finally catching up to Nelson Cruz? The 41-year-old is slashing .169/.260/.262 with two home runs in 17 games, and his average exit velocity of 89.5 mph is his lowest mark during the Statcast era.
28. Arizona Diamondbacks (LW: 30)
Rookie Seth Beer has been Arizona’s best hitter by a wide margin even though he hasn’t homered since his walk-off shot on Opening Day/National Beer Day. He’s slashing .341/.431/.477 and ranks fifth in the NL in on-base percentage. His .452 BABIP is the third highest in the sport, though, so some regression is almost surely on the horizon. Keep an eye on the rotation, which boasts the second-best ERA (2.36) in baseball so far.
27. Baltimore Orioles (LW: 29)
Tommy John surgery claiming John Means as its first major victim of the season is incredibly cruel. He seemed set to finally escape this endless rebuild as one of the most effective starting pitchers on the trade market. Maybe when he returns next season, the Orioles will finally be ready to contend again … but to quote perhaps the greatest Survivor player of all-time, “I don’t know about thaaaat.”
26. Pittsburgh Pirates (LW: 25)
The Pirates are a tough bunch to rank. They’re sitting at .500 and just took three of four from the Cubs but also suffered the worst loss in franchise history (by scoring margin, anyway) on Saturday and own the league’s second-worst run differential. Pittsburgh will have to prove itself into May to move up much more in this space. Bryan Reynolds getting above the Mendoza line would help.
25. Kansas City Royals (LW: 24)
First, the good news: Andrew Benintendi’s .388 batting average leads the majors, and Adalberto Mondesi has stayed healthy through 14 games. Now, the bad news: Mondesi doesn’t have an extra-base hit in 51 plate appearances and by wRC+ has been the second-worst hitter in the league (-9) among 182 qualified batters, while Whit Merrifield, freshly extended through next season, has been the third-worst hitter (-1) by the same metric.
24. Texas Rangers (LW: 26)
As expected, the Rangers’ pitching staff has been a glaring weakness and is carrying the AL’s highest ERA (5.08). More surprising has been the offense’s struggles, as both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien have OPS marks below .600. In fact, of the nine Rangers with the most plate appearances, only Nathaniel Lowe (.887) has an OPS above .700.
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
23. Detroit Tigers (LW: 22)
Top pitching prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning appear to have avoided serious injuries to their elbow and shoulder, respectively, so that’s a giant sigh of relief. But it must be a little concerning that top-hitting prospect Spencer Torkelson is the only Tigers player with multiple home runs, while Akil Baddoo, Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan Schoop all have sub-.500 OPS marks. At least Miguel Cabrera reached 3,000 hits and looks poised for a pretty productive season.
22. Oakland Athletics (LW: 23)
The A’s haven’t looked half bad so far despite their offseason fire sale and the fan base’s de facto strike of home games to send a message to tight-fisted owner John Fisher. The winning record and positive run differential should eventually become things of the past, as will Frankie Montas’s time in Oakland if he keeps up his recent dominance.
21. Miami Marlins (LW: 20)
Pablo López has been one of baseball’s most underrated starters for a couple of seasons now, but he may not stay under the radar for much longer given his status as MLB’s ERA leader (0.52). Jazz Chisholm has garnered more attention from onlookers, despite what my colleague and Miami sports diehard Rohan Nadkarni may claim, but even the most optimistic Marlins fan probably wouldn’t have expected him to lead the sport in slugging percentage (.727) at this juncture. Long live the Euro step!
20. Chicago Cubs (LW: 17)
The Cubs claimed their most lopsided shutout win in team history over the Pirates Saturday, but that was the only game they won in the four-game series. To send out Cubs fans on a high note, here’s a Seiya Suzuki update: The rookie sensation leads the majors in on-base percentage (.492) and OPS (1.180). So much for the concern that his batting eye wouldn’t adjust well to MLB’s higher-velocity environment.
19. Philadelphia Phillies (LW: 13)
I picked Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young award this year, and, well, he may already be out of the running after losing each of his first three games, allowing 12 earned runs against 11 strikeouts through 12 ⅔ innings.
18. Colorado Rockies (LW: 21)
Brendan Rodgers was the only Rockies regular who recorded a higher OPS in away games than home games last season. He’s been the worst hitter in the majors by wRC+ (-23), with just four hits in 46 at bats. Time is running out for the former No. 3 overall pick to make an impact in Colorado.
17. Cleveland Guardians (LW: 18)
Here’s to hoping Owen Miller’s quick stint on the COVID-19 list, which ended Sunday, doesn’t disrupt what’s been an otherworldly start to his 2021 campaign. The 25-year-old infielder has an uncanny knack for contact, as he ranks in the 97th percentile of whiff rate despite sitting in the 14th percentile of chase rate. If that was too much stat-talk for you, just know that Miller doesn’t have a great batter’s eye, but he still very rarely swings and misses. He’s combined with rookie Steven Kwan and the newly extended José Ramírez to give Cleveland an unexpectedly potent offense, as the Guardians rank second in slugging percentage (.423) and fourth in OPS (.749).
16. Boston Red Sox (LW: 12)
The questions surrounding the Red Sox entering the season were focused on their lack of playoff-caliber starting pitchers. But Boston’s offense has been the real problem thus far. Bobby Dalbec is looking much like he did during his horrid first half last year, Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t hitting much better than he did in Milwaukee and Trevor Story is still looking for his first home run this season.
AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn
15. Minnesota Twins (LW: 19)
The Twins are in first place in the AL Central with a .500 record and Carlos Correa having struck out in more than a third of his at bats. Byron Buxton is carrying this offense to the extent that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli didn’t sound so crazy Sunday when he suggested he’s the best player in the world right now.
14. Atlanta Braves (LW: 7)
The defending champs have yet to win a series. That includes their season-opening four-game set against the Reds, who’ve proceeded to lose every one of their other series (and every other game, save Sunday’s win over St. Louis). Dansby Swanson hasn’t started his contract year as he would have liked; his 26 strikeouts are the most in the bigs. On the bright side, Kyle Wright ranks fourth in the majors in ERA (1.06) and first in FIP (0.73), while ace Max Fried is fourth with a 1.53 FIP. Neither Wright, nor Fried has allowed a home run across 35 combined innings. The Braves started slowly last season, too, so maybe everything is going as planned.
13. Chicago White Sox (LW: 2)
The White Sox, in the middle of a seven-game losing streak, proved to be the most divisive team of our two-man power ranking committee this week. I had them at No. 17 while Selbe was more willing to look past their early-season swoon and put them at No. 9. The news that Eloy Jiménez will miss six to eight weeks with a hamstring strain has me legitimately worried about Chicago’s AL Central odds, as does Dallas Keuchel’s continued downward spiral.
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12. Milwaukee Brewers (LW: 15)
Christian Yelich is slashing .192/.302/.327 with one home run (a grand slam off of a meatball from Pirates starter Zach Thompson) in 15 games. That’s not a great start for those of us who are concerned that his MVP-caliber power stroke could be gone for good. Then again, his expected numbers (.251 xBA, .483 xSLG) are far better than his actual ones and he leads the league in hard-hit rate (62.9%). His barrel percentage (14.3%) is the second-best mark of his career. The caveat for the good and the bad with Yelich is it’s early. Either way, Milwaukee’s World Series hopes are riding on a Yelich resurgence.
11. Los Angeles Angels (LW: 14)
Jo Adell ripped his second career grand slam against the Orioles in the Angels’ 7–6 win on Sunday. Perhaps more importantly, the game was Adell’s first without a strikeout this season after he entered it leading the majors with a ghastly 44.7% strikeout rate.
10. Houston Astros (LW: 6)
Justin Verlander has looked excellent so far in his return from Tommy John surgery, allowing a combined four runs in three starts against the strong offenses of the Blue Jays, Mariners and Angels. It’s the rest of the Astros rotation that’s been shaky, as has the offense, which ranks 22nd with 3.6 runs scored per game.
AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
9. Seattle Mariners (LW: 16)
Top-hitting prospects Julio Rodríguez and Jarred Kelenic are still struggling, both ranking in the top 10 in strikeout rate, but the Mariners have still managed to cobble together the American League’s best offense (125 OPS+). Ty France, who leads the majors with 24 hits, and J.P. Crawford (.352/.471/.574 slash line, MLB-low 5.9% strikeout rate) are helping make up for the two youngsters’ struggles on the offensive end. Top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert and his AL-best 0.54 ERA have also helped place Seattle atop the AL West.
8. Tampa Bay Rays (LW: 11)
Wander Franco has been every bit as good as advertised. The 21-year-old is already a superstar and should start for the American League at the All-Star Game if he keeps this up. But how about Ji-Man Choi? The 30-year-old Rays first baseman is enjoying a breakout of epic proportions. Among players with at least 20 batted balls this season, Choi ranks first in hard-hit rate (63.6) and second in average exit velocity (96.6). It’s worth noting that Choi doesn’t have enough batted-ball events to qualify for the Baseball Savant leaderboard page, which is why Yelich is considered the league leader in hard-hit percentage. Choi has fewer batted balls because he’s walked in 11 of his 48 plate appearances this season. He also ranks third in chase rate and first in walk rate among players with at least 40 plate appearances.
7. San Diego Padres (LW: 10)
The Padres have been trying to trade Eric Hosmer for a while now, but he’s been a valuable part of San Diego’s lineup thus far. His .375 batting average is tied for second in MLB, though his .457 BABIP indicates he’s due for a regression.
6. St. Louis Cardinals (LW: 8)
Nolan Arenado is hitting even better than he did in the thin air of Denver. He leads the majors with a .727 slugging percentage (tied with Chisholm), and ranks second in OPS (1.154 and third in wRC+ (234). The Cardinals may need to find an external solution at shortstop, though. Paul DeJong still looks lost at the plate, and Edmundo Sosa probably isn’t the answer, either.
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
5. New York Yankees (LW: 9)
The Yankees have had a solid start to the year, so before I highlight a truly confounding statistic regarding Joey Gallo, I’ll first highlight that Nestor Cortes somehow ranks tied for first in strikeout rate (44.6%) among MLB pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched. On Sunday, Gerrit Cole had his ninth start with at least six scoreless innings since joining the Yankees in 2020, the most in the AL over that span. O.K., now it’s time for the good (read: bad) stuff: Earlier in the week, Gallo had become the first position player with zero runs, zero RBIs and at least 15 strikeouts through 11 games since 1920. It then took him until his 15th game, on Saturday, to score for the first time and until Sunday to collect his first RBI (and first extra-base hit). What has happened to this man?
4. Toronto Blue Jays (LW: 5)
Kevin Gausman has been everything the Blue Jays could have hoped for. He leads all pitchers in FIP (0.73) and has yet to walk a batter or serve up a home run in 18 ⅔ innings.
3. San Francisco Giants (LW: 3)
Carlos Rodón, Gausman’s de facto replacement in San Francisco, has also been everything the Giants could have hoped for. He ranks tied for first in strikeout rate (44.6%), third in FIP (0.91) and tied for fourth in ERA (1.06), and he has yet to give up a home run in 17 innings.
2. New York Mets (LW: 4)
Stephanie Apstein wrote a few days ago about how the Mets’ rotation is thriving even without Jacob deGrom. To me, the most surprising individual performance of the bunch belongs to Carlos Carrasco, who ranks second in WHIP (0.60), has a 29.9% strikeout rate and is exhibiting the best control of his career after a couple of years of increased walk rates. The 35-year-old is seemingly all the way back after his debut season in Queens was derailed by injuries.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LW: 1)
Maybe we were silly to have worried about the Dodgers’ pitching depth. Los Angeles leads baseball in ERA (2.22), WHIP (0.95) and batting average against (.191). And leading the way like it’s 2012 is Clayton Kershaw, who, buoyed by his perfect game bid, leads the majors in WHIP (0.59). Oh, they have the highest-scoring offense at 5.47 runs per game, too.
