October has arrived! After 162 regular-season games, the MLB playoffs are set to start Tuesday. Can Atlanta roll through the postseason? Which team will emerge from the American League? What will surprise us over the next month? And who will lift the World Series trophy?
SI’s MLB writers Stephanie Apstein, Emma Baccellieri and Tom Verducci break down every series ahead and make their picks and predictions.
Photo illustration by Bryce Wood; Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports (Harper); Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports (Seager); Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports (Acuña); Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports (Elfin); Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (Betts)
NATIONAL LEAGUE BRACKET
Stephanie Apstein
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Phillies over Marlins
NL Division Series: Atlanta over Phillies
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Brewers
NLCS: Atlanta over Dodgers
Atlanta is clearly the class of the league. Anything can happen in October, but it’s hard to imagine that lineup going totally cold.
Emma Baccellieri
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Phillies over Marlins
NL Division Series: Atlanta over Phillies
NL Division Series: Brewers over Dodgers
NLCS: Atlanta over Brewers
Atlanta is simply too good to pick against. Yes, the Phillies have had a strong second half, the Brewers have some tremendous pitching and the Dodgers are, well, the Dodgers. But this Atlanta lineup is so powerful that it’s hard to choose another challenger here.
Tom Verducci
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Phillies over Marlins
NL Division Series: Phillies over Atlanta
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Brewers
NLCS: Phillies over Dodgers
The Phillies have the offensive firepower to hang with Atlanta. Aaron Nola is the key arm in the series. If he’s right—in what’s been an up and down year—Philadelphia could have the pitching edge.
Thomas Shea/USA TODAY Sports
AMERICAN LEAGUE BRACKET
Stephanie Apstein
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Twins
AL Wild Card: Rays over Rangers
AL Division Series: Orioles over Rays
AL Division Series: Astros over Blue Jays
ALCS: Astros over Orioles
I simply cannot pick a team to beat the Astros in October without a very good reason.
Emma Baccellieri
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Twins
AL Wild Card: Rangers over Rays
AL Division Series: Orioles over Rangers
AL Division Series: Astros over Blue Jays
ALCS: Orioles over Astros
With a healthier, more complete roster for the Rays, this bracket might look much more interesting. As is, though, it’s hard to see anyone challenging the Orioles and Astros. I think either team could ultimately come out on top here—but I’ll take the Orioles for their first trip to the World Series since 1983.
Tom Verducci
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Twins
AL Wild Card: Rays over Rangers
AL Division Series: Orioles over Rays
AL Division Series: Astros over Blue Jays
ALCS: Astros over Orioles
The Rangers did themselves no favor by slipping from a first-round bye to a date at the Trop, where Tampa Bay is 53–28. Baltimore’s starting pitchers deserve more credit than they have been getting, and its offense never gives up. But if you watched Houston play the final week, when veterans such as Justin Verlander, José Abreu and Jose Altuve stepped up, you understand why this team has a close resemblance to the late 1990s Yankees: Their pedigree means something in big spots.
WORLD SERIES PICKS
Stephanie Apstein
Atlanta over Astros
MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr.
The existence of this Atlanta team is a good reason. There is not a weak spot in the order, and even though the Astros have chosen the right time to wake up from their World Series hangover, I think Atlanta is too complete and too persistent.
Emma Baccellieri
Atlanta over Orioles
MVP: Matt Olson
It’s hard to find new ways to describe just how good this Atlanta roster is. Yes, it’s not in an ideal position with its rotation, with Max Fried and Charlie Morton currently sidelined by injury. But this lineup is so loaded that any starting pitching concerns feel immaterial. That doesn’t mean October will be a breeze. But there’s so much talent here, it’s hard to pick anyone else.
Tom Verducci
Phillies over Astros
MVP: Bryce Harper
Atlanta may have the better team, especially with the greatest slugging offense in National and American League history. But this is a tough-minded Phillies team with a deeper pitching staff than the one that could not stop Houston in the World Series last year. The lefty-heavy Marlins present a first-round threat to the Phillies, but surviving that will put this team on a run.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
BOLD PREDICTIONS
Stephanie Apstein
No starting pitcher will make it through the seventh inning. Just nine pitchers did it last year—the Mariners’ Luis Castillo and the Padres’ Yu Darvish twice—and of those, only the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler and the Astros’ Framber Valdez are back in the postseason this year. Old-school managers like Atlanta’s Brian Snitker and Houston’s Dusty Baker seem most likely to push a starter, but they also both have enough bullpen options not to force the issue.
Emma Baccellieri
Maybe it doesn’t sound too bold to say the Dodgers don’t make the NLCS. Their rotation has been stretched thin, after all, and they could be facing a sneakily capable Brewers squad. But consider how long it has been since the Dodgers have failed to make the NLCS in back-to-back years: We haven’t seen that since 2014–15! When this juggernaut has experienced one early playoff exit, it has always followed up stronger the next year to make sure it doesn’t see a second. But I think that stretch might come to an end this year. Yes, there’s a lot to like about this roster. But the state of its starting pitching gives me real pause.
Tom Verducci
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will use his relievers for more innings than his starters. It may blow up on him in a game here or there, but Roberts knows he doesn’t have much length in his rotation, so he will go to his bullpen early and often. No Los Angeles starter will throw 100 pitches.
SURPRISE TEAM
Stephanie Apstein
Unfortunately, I mostly picked chalk, but I think the Twins will win a playoff game this year. And given that they have gone 19 years and 18 games without doing that, I think the prediction qualifies as a surprise. Minnesota’s rotation has quietly been the best in the league. Shortstop Carlos Correa has struggled this season, but he knows as well as anyone that it’s what you do in October that matters.
Emma Baccellieri
The Brewers. Their pitching is fantastic: A rotation led by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley paired with a bullpen anchored by Devin Williams is a recipe for success. No, this lineup isn’t blowing anyone away. (Though Christian Yelich’s renaissance has been a thing of beauty.) But the pitching here is strong enough that I think Milwaukee can make a run.
Tom Verducci
The Rays. They play a bit unconventionally, what with their matchup bullpen and daring on the bases (often not smartly). But they are a dangerous team at home and are a streaky team that could get on a roll.
