On October 1, 2024, Israel faced one of the largest missile barrages in modern history. Iranian state media said the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched around 200 ballistic missiles of various types at Israeli targets, including so-called "hypersonic” missiles. Hypersonic missiles, already in use by Russia, China, the United States and other nations, represent a new generation of ballistic missiles that are more difficult to intercept and more destructive upon impact.
Dozens of videos rapidly shared on social media captured scenes of multiple missiles in the sky over Israel Tuesday night, some intercepted by Israel's highly regarded missile-defence system, others exploding on impact.
The FRANCE 24 Observers team has gathered video evidence of the strikes on various locations within Israel, featured in a separate report.
Since the attack, the term "hypersonic" has been widely used by IRGC supporters online and echoed by Iranian state media in reference to the missiles launched at Israel.
Iranian officials say the strikes were in response to two incidents: the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas, during a visit to Tehran in July which is widely ascribed to Israel; and Israel's attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon on September 27, which resulted in the deaths of Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, a senior IRGC general.
The October 1 barrage was the second major Iranian attack on Israel in just five months. On April 13, 2024, Iran launched hundreds of suicide drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in what it described as retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
While the IRGC’s April attacks involved a combination of suicide drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, the strikes on October 1 were exclusively carried out using ballistic missiles.
Unlike cruise missiles, which maintain a low, consistent altitude, ballistic missiles follow a high-arching trajectory, exiting and re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere. This trajectory can make them more difficult for defence systems to track and intercept. Additionally, as ballistic missiles descend, their speed increases dramatically due to gravitational acceleration, further complicating interception efforts compared to cruise missiles.
But has Iran truly acquired hypersonic ballistic missile technology, and were they capable of deploying it in this assault? What are the broader implications of such a capability?
Farzin Nadimi, an expert from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explains:
'Booster remnants... leave little doubt'
“There has been no official communication from the IRGC regarding the specific types of missiles used in the attack on Israel. However, sources and media outlets close to the IRGC have confirmed the use of a range of missiles, including the Qadr and Emad [medium-range ballistic missiles], as well as the Kheybar Shekan or Fattah-1, both of which are classified as “hypersonic” by the IRGC.
In addition to these claims, visual evidence from both sides supports this assessment. Images released by the Islamic Republic showing the missiles being fired, along with videos and photographs of missile booster debris found in Israel and Jordan, confirm the use of either Fattah-1 or Kheybar Shekan missiles during the October 1 attack on Israel by the IRGC. For instance, a comparison of official images of the Fattah-1 missile with the booster remnants discovered in Israel reveals matching patterns, leaving little doubt that the Fattah-1 was indeed employed in the strikes.
'Hypersonic missiles are significantly harder to intercept'
The threat posed by hypersonic missiles is twofold, primarily due to their speed. A hypersonic missile descends on its target at far greater speeds than conventional ballistic missiles. The minimum speed for a missile to be considered 'hypersonic' is Mach 5 [5 times the speed of sound, or more than 6,000 km/h]. In contrast, classic ballistic missiles typically slow to below Mach 5 upon re-entry into the atmosphere. This makes hypersonic missiles significantly harder to intercept, as missile defence systems are afforded much less time to respond.
The higher velocity of a hypersonic missile provides a clear tactical advantage for the attacker. This increased speed results in greater kinetic energy, amplifying the destructive impact of the warhead, thereby delivering a more powerful explosion with the same payload.
A further critical feature of hypersonic missiles is their ability to perform complex manoeuvres as they approach the target, enabling them to evade interception systems. Traditional ballistic missiles, on the other hand, either lack this capability or have very limited manoeuvrability after re-entering the atmosphere to adjust their course and hit the target accurately.
'Iran's Fattah-1 qualifies as a hypersonic weapon'
By this definition, Iran’s Fattah-1 missile qualifies as a hypersonic weapon. Various reports suggest that the Fattah-1 can travel towards its target at speeds of up to Mach 13, equipped with a wing and final-stage engine designed to outmanoeuvre defence systems. However, despite the IRGC’s claims, the Kheybar Shekan cannot be considered a fully fledged hypersonic missile. Its terminal-stage speed is around Mach 4, and it lacks the ability to manoeuvre in its final approach. That said, a speed of Mach 4 is still very fast.
Footage circulating on social media from Israel showing the missile strikes provides further evidence. In some of these videos, the extraordinary speed of the missiles, characteristic of hypersonic flight, is clearly visible as they hit their targets.”
