With the 2023 NFL draft now behind us, it’s time to project forward. The offseason program started on April 17th and rookie minicamp will either be this upcoming weekend May 5-8 or next weekend May 12-15.
With the Vikings making a lot of changes to the roster, especially with the 21 rookies added to the roster, there are a lot of questions on what the Vikings process was and is moving forward and how the roster will shape up.
After the NFL draft, we have our latest mailbag with a wide variety of questions.
Ivan Pace Jr. a surprising UDFA
Did you expect Ivan Pace Jr. to get drafted? And is he tailor-made for a Brian Flores defense?
— Vikings Central (@VikesCentral) April 30, 2023
Yes I did. I had a fourth-round grade on Pace Jr. and he was one of the best UDFAs this year. I would have been happy if the Vikings took him in round four, but his profile is really weird.
Ivan Pace Jr. is a LB prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 5.71 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1140 out of 2652 LB from 1987 to 2023. #Vikings https://t.co/RgLTlYtzBl pic.twitter.com/6dtzV6M2GH
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 29, 2023
His 40-yard dash and 20-yard split are both above the 80th percentile, but his 10-yard split was in the 29th percentile. Pair that with his small stature and his excellent pass-rush ability and it’s a weird evaluation. Pace likely fell due to that and how he will probably be a specialist in the NFL, but a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores can use a guy like this well and with effectiveness.
Running back share
Who has more carries for the Vikings this season: McBride/Chandler/Nwangwu
— Brandon Warne (@Brandon_Warne) April 30, 2023
This is an interesting one. I think you can rule out Nwangwu. He just doesn’t have the type of vision and decision-making you need from a running back. It’s no surprise that he hasn’t gotten much time.
Barring injuries, I’m going with Chandler. Both are very capable backs, but Chandler can be counted on to play on any down, whereas McBride’s a complete unknown with five receptions for 29 yards on nine targets over three seasons at UAB. It’s an offense issue, but it also one that could be with McBride. We won’t know until they get onto the practice field.
Any regrets?
What player will the Vikings regret passing up on in this draft class that was still available for them to take
— Dave Winter (@DdWinter9) April 30, 2023
This question essentially means do you think any pick will be bad. I know that’s not Dave’s intention, but it does raise an interesting idea. I’m going to look at it from the perspective of “Is there anyone you think will outperform the player that was drafted?”
In that case, I look at Myles Murphy. A massive human with incredible non-size adjusted athleticism, Murphy needs work to become a good football player. He doesn’t have any nuance that you would like to see from a player taken in round one, but Clemson didn’t develop him. I would have loved him in Minnesota as a long-term 5T to take over in time for Dalvin Tomlinson.
RAS
Thoughts on why the vikes seemed to take non-elite RAS guys this draft when most of the league has emphasized better athletes? Do they have their own data that tells then something else?
— Proud Papa (@MrB_roke) April 30, 2023
Okay, so this is something I’m going to look into more deeply so I don’t know for sure, but I have theories.
One thing to know for sure is that both Jordan Addison and Mekhi Blackmon were dealing with minor injuries that impacted their testing and they had a monsoon destroy their pro day.
I think they are buying high on guys due to data that isn’t available to the public: GPS data. That will tell you how fast players are during the game. According to PFF’s Steve Palazzolo during their draft stream on day one, Addison tested in the 90th percentile for speed with tracking data. That will tell you more than running with track shoes indoors.
I do think that they have thresholds and those will come out in time, but football is a lot more than testing numbers.
Upgraded positions
Is there any position on the defense that they have clearly upgraded over last year? Maybe ILB, but Asamoah is still unproven.
— steve (@steve28726335) April 30, 2023
The easy answers here are wide receiver and tight end. Jordan Addison at this point I believe will be better in 2023 than Adam Thielen, and he will also have a cap hit of about 20% less than what Thielen was supposed to get at $19.7 million.
The tight end position had T.J. Hockenson, but Irv Smith Jr. was a disappointment and Josh Oliver is going to be an upgrade over him. 12 personnel is going to be good for the Vikings, especially in the running game.
Kirk Cousins extension
Do you think it’s likely the Vikings extend Kirk after drafting a developmental QB or do you still think they let him play out his final season?
— Levi Hansen (@LeviHansen11) April 30, 2023
I think a potential Kirk Cousins extension will depend on one main thing: how good is 2023 Cousins and will he show signs of regression?
Adding Jaren Hall is great! Taking a day-three quarterback regularly is a great process and Hall is the only day-three guy I think could potentially be a starter in the NFL. Will he be? I have no idea, but his ability to already operate the offense that the Vikings run makes him very intriguing.
Even with Hall being in the fold, if Cousins plays incredibly well, none of it will matter and he could be in line for an extension. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah kept that door open during his press availability this weekend. All of this is up to Cousins.
Remaining holes
What are your thoughts on remaining holes and options to fix them? Like RG, etc
— Norse (@norseman79skol) April 30, 2023
I think the Vikings did a good job filling holes. You mention right guard, but I don’t think that it’s a position of need. Ingram absolutely had a rough year, but he showed improvement at the end of the season.
The biggest hole for me is at linebacker. If Brian Asamoah or Jordan Hicks gets hurt, that group is incredibly shallow. They brought in multiple high-upside athletes in their large UDFA class to potentially be on the roster next year, but that’s far from a guarantee.
Depth in the trenches
Do you think they add more depth to the offensive and defensive lines? Do you think they add a veteran linebacker and safety?
— Mike Burfield (@mike16072) April 30, 2023
On the offensive line, I don’t think so. They are bringing back everyone from last year’s team and that type of continuity is massive for the offensive line. On the defensive line, they added Jaquelin Roy who plays a similar game to Dalvin Tomlinson.
At this point, I don’t think they add a veteran on defense. They don’t have a lot of cap space and there isn’t a ton of talent available. This team isn’t giving up on 2023, but it’s obvious they are setting up to be much stronger in the future.
Replacing Hicks
Whose replacing Hicks as coverage lber? Pace struggles in coverage.
— Justin Raasch (@normoftweeting) April 30, 2023
That’s going to be Brian Asamoah and potentially penny packages with three safeties. They are looking to be more versatile on defense and utilizing players like Lewis Cine and Harrison Smith in the box can help alleviate some of that. I would expect the Vikings to be aggressive in free agency next year to address the position.
Nose tackle
Can Roy start at nose, or are they going with Tonga?
— Egil Skallagrimsson (@EgilSkallagrims) April 30, 2023
I think Roy is best as a 3T or 5T. I don’t think he’s a nose tackle. Right now, I would still expect Harrison Phillips to be the nose tackle, but I will say this. This group of players isn’t loaded with elite talent, but when they use a proper rotation, they don’t lose a ton.
I would watch out for Calvin Avery the UDFA nose tackle. I don’t think he’s going to be a starter, but NT is a position that you can get as a UDFA or on day three and they can be long-term starters.
More cornerbacks?
Can we expect a CB signing before OTA's begin?
— Informe Púrpura (@InformePurpura) April 30, 2023
I would say no. The thing with this cornerback room is that it’s fine. There are capable players, especially after adding Mekhi Blackmon and Jay Ward (slot). You don’t need anyone who’s a top-tier talent at the position, just capable players. One thing that hasn’t been talked about enough is that the Vikings staff really likes their cornerback room with Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans. They have capable players and now it’s time for them to step up.
Rookie corners
Do you think Blackmon competes at boundary or slot corner? You think Ward will be used at corner and safety like college? Or will they decide on one position for him?
— Mark Larson (@MarkLar18454726) April 30, 2023
I think they will try both players out everywhere before deciding on where to play them consistently. The big thing for me is versatility. Flores LOVES having versatile defenders and Ward is reminiscent of Eric Rowe, who was Flores’ guy over most of the last eight years. I think their positions will be fluid and Flores will try to maximize them early and often.
