Early evening summary
The Royal College of Nursing has suspended its 48-hour strike in England planned for early March after the government agreed to conduct “intensive talks” on pay. (See 5.27pm.) The health secretary, Steve Barclay, said the government was committed to a “fair and reasonable settlement”.
We've agreed to enter talks with @theRCN to find a fair and reasonable settlement, recognising the vital role nurses play and wider economic pressures.
— Steve Barclay (@SteveBarclay) February 21, 2023
Strike action will be paused while this happens. Read our joint statement here. 👇 https://t.co/xa37MTJgDq
According to the BBC, other health unions were not aware of the joint RCN/government statement about this issued earlier, which has prompted speculation that ministers might be planning a special offer just for nurses.
Minister plays down concern about estimated 2m people not having photo ID needed to vote under new law
Lee Rowley, the local government minister, has played down concerns that 2 million people do not have the photo ID they will need to vote under a new law that will come into effect for the first time for the local elections in England in May.
As my colleague Peter Walker reports, although the government has set up a scheme enabling people to get photo ID for voting if they do not have an appropriate document already, only around 21,000 people have applied – only 1% of the estimated 2 million voters who do not possess the necessary documents already.
In a Commons urgent question on this earlier, Rowley played down the significance of the 2 million figure. He said:
Of those two million people, which is an estimate, a large number of those will not have elections in their area this year.
Secondly, of that group a number will choose not to vote – much as we would like them to do so – will have chosen never to have voted, and we would encourage them to do so, but ultimately that is what the purpose of a democracy is – people have a right to vote and not to vote, and we’re seeking to encourage them to do so, we’re seeking to guarantee that integrity.
For Labour, shadow communities minister Alex Norris noted there are 72 days before polling day and went on:
We’re risking widespread disenfranchisement. When is the minister going to wake up and act to prevent these voter ID requirements from locking huge numbers of people out of their democracy at the next election?
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RCN suspends 48-hour strike in England after government agrees to 'intensive talks' on pay starting tomorrow
The Royal College of Nursing has suspended its 48-hour strike in England planned for early March after the government agreed to conduct “intensive talks” on pay. In a rare joint statement, the Department of Health and Social Care and the RCN said:
The government and Royal College of Nursing have agreed to enter a process of intensive talks. Both sides are committed to finding a fair and reasonable settlement that recognises the vital role that nurses and nursing play in the National Health Service and the wider economic pressures facing the United Kingdom and the prime minister’s priority to halve inflation. The talks will focus on pay, terms and conditions, and productivity-enhancing reforms.
The health secretary will meet with the Royal College of Nursing on Wednesday to begin talks. The Royal College of Nursing will pause strike action during these talks.
In the past the government has refused to talk about the pay offer on the table for the 2022-23 financial year, saying that talks must focus on next year’s pay offer. Today’s statement suggests the government is now being more flexible.
The RCN went into the dispute asking for a pay rise 5% higher than RPI inflation. At one point the government said this would amount to a 19% rise. But recently the RCN called off its strike action in Wales after the Welsh government offered an extra 3%, on top of the 4.5% already on the table, and that offer is being put to members.
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'At the moment, yes' - Kate Forbes says she is staying in SNP leadership contest, for now
Kate Forbes may be having second thoughts about remaining in the contest for the SNP leadership. After a dire 24 hours for her campaign, when asked by STV if she intended to stay in the race, she replied: “At the moment, yes.”
Here is the clip.
Kate Forbes is running for First Minister 'at the moment' as she defends gay marriage stance. https://t.co/DOllPAdSQ8 pic.twitter.com/5SOV3VtO3M
— STV News (@STVNews) February 21, 2023
A search of the BBC’s offices in India was a “deliberate act of intimidation” after the broadcaster published an unflattering documentary about the country’s leader, MPs were told.
As PA Media reports, the DUP MP Jim Shannon used an urgent question in the Commons to hit out at the Indian government after its tax authorities spent three days searching the BBC’s New Delhi and Mumbai offices last week. Shannon said:
Let’s be very clear, this was a deliberate act of intimidation following the release of an unflattering documentary about the country’s leader.”
Since its release, there has been a concerted effort to prevent the documentary screening in India … the suppression of freedom of expression in media and with journalists.
In resposne David Rutley, a Foreign Office minister, kept any criticism of India to a minimum. Telling MPs that the goverment was monitoring the matter closely, he said: “Respect for the rule of law is an essential element of an effective democracy, so too is an independent media and freedom of speech.”
Šefčovič and Cleverly say they will speak again 'soon' as announcement about NI protocol deal continues to be delayed
Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice president who deals with Brexit-related negotiatons with the UK, and James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, have had another conversation about the Northern Ireland protocol. On the basis of what they are both tweeting about the call, they still cannot say when a deal may be announced.
Good to speak again with @JamesCleverly and @chhcalling, as 🇪🇺🇬🇧 discussions on the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland continue at high intensity.
— Maroš Šefčovič🇪🇺 (@MarosSefcovic) February 21, 2023
We remain in close touch, focused on finding joint solutions. Set to speak 🔜. pic.twitter.com/1LADqppZPR
Thank you @MarosSefcovic for another discussion with @chhcalling and me on the NI Protocol.
— James Cleverly🇬🇧 (@JamesCleverly) February 21, 2023
As work continues between teams, we remain laser-focussed on finding a solution that works for the people of Northern Ireland.
Looking forward to speaking again soon.
Away from the SNP leadership race, the final stage debate for the Scottish budget is under way. The finance secretary, John Swinney – who is standing in for leadership hopeful Kate Forbes while she is on maternity leave – has announced an additional £100m for local authorities to help them settle pay disputes and reversed cuts to the Creative Scotland arts budget but still facing heaving criticism from opposition parties.
The budget includes an income tax rise for everyone earning more than £43,662, which the Scottish Tories say is “creating substantial disincentives to living and working in Scotland”.
Scottish Labour’s Daniel Johnson criticised Swinney for continuing with the government’s “flawed plan for a national care service” – a proposal which local authorities have urged him to suspend, arguing it would be unjustifiably costly and disruptive during a time of financial crisis. They say it represents money wasted on “plans and centralisation rather than delivering care”.
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Hunt says surplus in public finances for January does not mean he can improve public sector pay offers
Jeremy Hunt has said that today’s better-than-expected figures for the government finances in January, showing a surplus, do not mean he can afford to give public sector workers a better pay rise.
Speaking to reporters in Stratford, east London, and echoing what No 10 said earlier (see 12.56pm), Hunt insisted there was no windfall.
Of course the fall in energy prices means the numbers are different to what they were two months ago, but unfortunately even though the cost of the [energy price guarantee] has gone down, so too have the windfall taxes that we were expecting to collect to pay for them.
So, the net difference is marginal, but the most important thing is this was a one-off, one-year cost only. To make permanent changes in tax and spending that are recurring, year-in year-out, you need a more fundamental change in national finances, which I’m afraid we haven’t seen.
Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, said the new figures made it harder for Hunt to justify not improving pay offers to public sector workers. But Hunt did not accept this. He said:
Pay rises are recurrent and they have a recurrent cost on the exchequer, and what we see in today’s numbers is not a recurrent change in our national finances.
It’s also not anything like as significant as the numbers people are talking about because of the corresponding reduction in windfall taxes. So, it doesn’t change the fundamental outlook and the need for responsibility in public finances.
Eurosceptic Tory MPs demand to see full text of Northern Ireland deal
The European Research Group of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs are demanding to see the full text of any deal on the Northern Ireland protocol, piling the pressure on the prime minister to meet their demands of radical changes to the Brexit trading arrangements, my colleagues Lisa O’Carroll, Pippa Crera and Jessica Elgot report.
Asked about the retained EU law (revocation and reform) bill, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, said the government would be tabling an amendment in the House of Lords saying that the sunset clause in the bill – which says EU laws should lapse at the end of December 2023, unless a deliberate decision is taken to retain or replace them – will not apply to tertiary legislation, such as licences.
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Sunak thinks UK can resolve its migration issues without having to leave EHCR, attorney general tells MPs
Maria Eagle (Lab) goes next.
Q: If you considered that a government bill would be against international law, would you just say so? Or would you find a way round it?
Victoria Prentis says of course she would say the law must be upheld. But she says she cannot comment on particular cases.
Q: If a policy were against the European convention on human rights, would you just say you cannot do it? Or would you suggest a way round that?
Prentis says she cannot comment on the specifics. But she says her advice is to explain the law. It is not always simple, she says.
Q: There have been hints from No 10 that the government could leave the European convention on human rights. Is that right?
Prentis says the government is committed to the ECHR. At the European court of human rights, the UK has the fewest infractions of any country. It is a valued member. The government remains committed to it, she says.
She says there is an issue with migration. But the PM believes that other nations can deal with their migration issues within the ECHR, and the UK should be able to too.
Q: Would leaving the EHCR break the Good Friday agreement?
Prentis says the convention is embedded in the Good Friday agreement. She says, if necessary, “work could be done to look at that”. But since the government is committed to the convention, that is not even something they need to say, she says.
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At the justice committee James Daly (Con) says he thinks the recent supreme court judgment on the Northern Ireland protocol was “one of most significant constitutional judgments in the past 300 years”. It found that, because of the protocol, parts of the Acts of Union 1800 no longer apply. He asks which bits of the Acts no longer apply.
Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, says she can not answer that. She says her legal advice to the government is confidential.
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Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, has just started giving evidence to the Commons justice committee about her work. She is appearing alongside Michael Tomlinson, the solicitor general.
Sir Bob Neill, the committee chair, asks if Prentis agrees with Suella Braverman, her predecessor, who said government laywers were too cautious.
Prentis says in her experience government lawyers are very good at coming up with solutions. If one option does not work, they will suggest another, she says.
She says government laywers are “integral” to the way Whitehall works. She says it is important to “big them up”.
Harry Cole, political editor of the Sun, has filed a juicy report about what has been happening in the talks Rishi Sunak has been holding with Tory MPs over the last 24 hours or so to try to persuade them to back his Northern Ireland protocol bill. According to his account, it is not going well.
Here is an extract.
Amongst MPs who have met the PM in recent hours, there is a growing scepticism the proposed deal will fall short as it does not fundamentally rewrite the controversial Northern Ireland protocol that governs how goods enter and leave the province.
One attendee said “its all too vague but what we’ve been told so far falls far short of what would be needed. It will sit alongside the protocol but not fundamentally change the text.”
Another said protections against EU rules being thrust upon Northern Irish firms that trade with the EU single market without any democratic consent are very “wishy washy” so far.
And one ex-minister described the PM as “snappy and irritable” during talks – suggesting that Mr Sunak does not realise how much trouble he is in, warning “the balloon will go up if this goes wrong”.
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Starmer says he wants Labour 'to say as much about rural issues as it does about urban issues'
Q: Why should farmers vote Labour at the next election. Traditonally Labour does not have much support from farmers.
Starmer says:
I want the Labour party to say as much about rural issues as it does about urban issues.
He says he grew up on the border of Surrey and Kent, living in a rural community. This is “deep in my DNA”, he says.
Labour will bring into government a different approach to governing, he says. He is fed up with “sticking-plaster politics”. Government only addresses problems in the short term.
The same problem applies to energy, he says.
He asks farmers to ask if they feel better of than they were 13 years ago. Is the economy working better than it was 13 years ago? Are public services better than they were 13 years ago? If the answer is no, there is a powerful case for change, he says.
And that’s it. The Q&A is over.
Q: What can you do to make the UK a more attractive place for seasonal workers?
Starmer says this has been an issue for years. He says they need to make the UK a more attractive place for seasonal workers. But the sector also needs to look at long-term solutions, he says.
He says over the past few years “the drifting of the UK off the international stage” has been a problem. And the economy has been stagnant, he says.
Q: Do you believe in following the science when it comes to eradicating bovine TB? (The questioner wants to know if Starmer is in favour of shooting badgers.)
Starmer says he does believe in following the science. He says he knows the impact TB has on livestock. He says the Covid pandemic showed what could be achieved, and that there is a need to go further.
(That seemed to be a reference to using vaccines, but Starmer was not specific.)
Q: The right to roam has caused problems for farmers. Extending it, as Labour proposes, could write of livestock fields.
Starmer says he does believe in the right to roam. But it will come with rights and responsibilites. He says he does not want to see farmers losing out. Labour will consult with farmers over what it does.
Starmer tells NFU that 'the days of cheap labour are probably over'
These are from my colleague Helena Horton, who has been watching Keir Starmer speak to the NFU conference.
Keir Starmer on pretty good form at #NFU23 makes a joke that the Bullring in Birmingham isn't what is expected. Says his first job when he was 14 years old was on a farm, picking up stones in a field for 50p. Gets laughs from audience
— Helena Horton (@horton_official) February 21, 2023
Starmer mentions #NetZero and says farmers have "run towards" it, and that the NFU setting a goal of 2040 is "the leadership we need to bring this country forwards". UK wide goal is 2050 #NFU23
— Helena Horton (@horton_official) February 21, 2023
Starmer says that ELM is on the whole good but "we can't lose sight of farming as a business", he does mention nature in passing but says farming's ultimate goal is food production... Labour seems to have less radical policy on nature than Tories #NFU23
— Helena Horton (@horton_official) February 21, 2023
ELM is environmental land management.
Woah he's really done his homework - has read the Rock review into tenant farmers. Says we don't want to "take advantage" of tenant farmers by putting solar panels on their land... #NFU23
— Helena Horton (@horton_official) February 21, 2023
Keir Starmer is now taking questions.
Q: We need workers to do hard, manual jobs. Since Brexit, it has been difficult or impossible to recruit them. What would Labour do about that?
Starmer says he accepts there is a problem.
This has always been an issue, but it has got worse, he says.
Labour will be pragmatic, he says.
But he says:
I think the days of cheap labour in the way that we have had for many years are probably over, for a whole bunch of reasons.
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Northern Ireland protocol bill 'no longer has any legal justification', says former justice secretary Robert Buckland
Sir Robert Buckland, the Conservative former justice secretary and a cabinet minister when the Northern Ireland protocol bill was going through the Commons, has said the bill “no longer has any legal justification”.
In an article for the House magazine, Buckland said that when the bill was introduced, it was justified because talks with the EU on reforming the protocol were deadlocked. But now that the talks were close to a conclusion, that was no longer the case, he said.
Back in mid-2022, it seemed as if the stalemate between the UK and the EU as to potential reform to the Northern Ireland Protocol would never end.
There was no sign that the EU was prepared to even admit that the protocol was creating problems with east-west trade that were a significant disturbance to the third strand of the Belfast Good Friday agreement of 1998 …
Now that [the bill’s] first political aim, namely the start of negotiations with the EU, has been achieved, it follows that the legal argument that the bill was necessary because there was no other way of achieving change has evaporated.
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Šefčovič says he hopes UK-EU deal on NI protocol can 'create conditions' for another 25 years of peace
The EU and UK can “see the finishing line” of an agreement on the Northern Ireland protocol but are not yet there, the European commissioner in charge of negotiations with the UK has said.
Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice president in charge of Brexit, is due to speak later today to James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, “to take stock” of ongoing discussions, according to officials. Šefčovič said:
With our UK partners we have made good progress, we clearly can see the finishing line, but in such a negotiation being close doesn’t mean being done.
He said the EU was sparing no efforts to find the finishing line.
The focus therefore is on concrete solutions to the concrete implementation challenges and our discussions continue at full speed.
Amid uncertainty about whether Rishi Sunak can convince the DUP and his own party to back the deal, Šefčovič declined to comment on UK politics and said such negotiations never worked with “artificial deadlines”.
Šefčovič invoked the Good Friday agreement, saying he hoped that a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol would provide the conditions for a quarter century of peace and prosperity for the region.
The Good Friday agreement contributed to 25 years of peace, and I hope with resolving these problems we are currently negotiating upon with our UK partners, we can create conditions for the next 25 years. So the Good Friday agreement will be not only about peace, but also about prosperity.
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The European Research Group – the Tory caucus for hardline Brexiters – is meeting early this evening to discuss the Northern Ireland protocol. According to Adam Payne from PoliticsHome, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, will be attending.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is expected to attend the ERG meeting later today, I'm told
— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) February 21, 2023
According to the BBC’s Nick Eardley, Tory Brexiters are increasingly confident that Rishi Sunak will not accept the protocol deal as it stands. (Although No 10 claims the negotiations are not yet over, it has been reported that the text of an agreement has been drafted, and that all that remains to be sorted are the political optics.)
Brexiteers increasingly confident PM won’t push through protocol deal as it stands. They warn dozens could rebel and argue that’s an impossible situation for PM who wasn’t chosen by party.
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) February 21, 2023
All eyes on No 10 and whether it moves https://t.co/xkC1FpPERp
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Keir Starmer has started giving his speech to the NFU conference. I have posted some extracts already (see 1.29pm), and I will post more when I have seen the full text. But I will be covering the Q&A in detail.
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Watchdog says government's impact assessment for strikes bill 'not fit for purpose'
Earlier this month the government published an impact assessment (IA) for its strikes (minimum service levels) bill. The regulatory policy committee, an independent body that scrutinises regulation and reports to government, has published its assessment of the IA and it says it is “not fit for purpose”. It says:
The IA’s assessment of the impact on small and micro businesses (SMBs), does not adequately address whether SMBs will face disproportionate impacts, and whether exemption or mitigation for disproportionately affected SMBs has been considered.
Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader and the shadow secretary of state for the future of work, said:
This is a damning judgement by independent experts on the government’s ‘sacking nurses’ bill.
Tory ministers have failed utterly to do due diligence on this shoddy, unworkable policy, breaking their own rules and failing to provide evidence for their claims. Clearly the government is trying to hide the severe and disproportionate impacts its legislation will have on small businesses.
Starmer to tell NFU Labour would ensure at least 50% of food procured by public sector produced locally
In the past farmers were generally seen as reliably-Tory voters. Labour does best in urban constituencies, not rural ones, and many farmers were enthusiastic about Brexit (although the NFU, their union, supported remain). But Keir Starmer, as part of his bid to widen Labour’s support and to show that the party has changed, has been enthusiastically cultivating the agricultural community, and this afternoon he will be speaking at the NFU’s conference.
Judging by what my colleague Helena Horton reported earlier, Starmer won’t find it hard to make a better impression than Rishi Sunak, who delivered a trite message by video. (See 11.27am.)
Starmer visited a farm in Solihull this morning ahead of his speech. And Labour has released an extract, in which Starmer says Labour would set a target for the public sector to procure 50% of all its food from local sources. He will say:
The next Labour government will commit to this: 50% of all food purchased by the public sector will be food produced locally and sustainably. That is £1.2bn of public money spent on quality food that is genuinely better for peoples’ health.
A clear target for every year we are in government. And look – 50% is just the minimum. We will do everything to go beyond it. We will buy more cereals, more oilseed rape, more strawberries, more beef and more British apples.
He will says this is part of a wider reform to public procurement policy to ensure it benefits British producers. He will say:
We’re committed to reforming public procurement – using it sensibly and carefully – to build up our sovereign capabilities in key industries.
It’s a crucial aspect of our industrial strategy, our partnership. And seasonal, sustainable, British-grown food is a key part of it.
And he will say Labour’s approach to Brexit would also benefit farmers.
It’s been obvious for a long time that the Tories have given up on farmers.
Labour’s approach to trade will be very different – I can promise you that. We want to remove barriers to exporters, not put them up. We want to protect high British standards, not water them down.
We are going to talk to our friends in the European Union, and we are going to seek a better trading relationship for British farming.
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No 10 defends Ukraine policy after Boris Johnson and Liz Truss say UK should be sending fighter jets
In a debate in the Commons last night the former prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss both said the government should supply fighter jets to Ukraine. The Daily Telegraph splashed on the story.
Tuesday's Telegraph: "Send jets to Ukraine, Truss and Johnson tell PM" #BBCPapers #TomorrowsPapersToday https://t.co/Kll0HVOkOd pic.twitter.com/cHb46NENk0
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) February 20, 2023
And here is our story, by colleague Tom Ambrose.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson suggested the government was already doing enough. He said:
We’re working with all our partners to shore up and improve Ukraine’s air defences.
The UK has already announced training for Ukrainian pilots on Nato-standard jets and we’re working with our partners on the next steps, ensuring they have the right capabilities that meet the requirements for fighter jets and infrastructure to defend their skies. So there’s a range of ways we’re already going further.
Asked whether Rishi Sunak welcomed advice from predecessors, the spokesperson replied: “Of course, and we’ll always listen to former prime ministers.”
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No 10 rejects claims January figures showing surplus in public finances shows taxes can be cut in budget
Downing Street has rejected claims that the surplus in the public sector finances for January proves that Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has scope for tax cuts in next month’s budget. Asked about this take on the figures announced this morning, the prime minister’s spokesperson said:
It’s important to understand the context. You would expect to see a surplus in January because of the timing of self-assessment receipts.
The only January deficit since 2015 was in 2021 during the height of the pandemic.
So we shouldn’t place too much emphasis on a single month’s data.
Borrowing remains at record highs and there is significant uncertainty and volatility which poses clear risks to the fiscal position.
The “overall focus on reducing the debt remains”, the spokesman added.
Kate Forbes says her faith teaches children should not be born outside marriage - but she would not impose this on others
Kate Forbes, the Scottish finance secretary and SNP leadership contender, has told Sky News that her personal view, according to her faith, is that it is wrong for children to be born outside of marriage. But she stressed that that was not a view that she would seek to impose on others.
Asked if she approved of children being born outside of marriage, Forbes said:
It’s something that I would seek to avoid, for me personally. But it doesn’t fuss me … the choices that other people make …
In terms of my faith, my faith would say that sex is for marriage. And that is the approach I would practise.
Asked again if she thought it was wrong for people to have children outside of marriage, Forbes implied that she would not seek to impose her own views on other people. But when pressed again on what her personal view was, she replied: “For me, it would be wrong, according to my faith.”
Sky’s Connor Gillies has the clip.
NEW: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes tells @SkyNews her faith says it’s “wrong” for children to be born outside of marriage & she would “seek to avoid”.
— Connor Gillies (@ConnorGillies) February 21, 2023
Also told me:
➖Trans rapist Isla Bryson is “man”.
➖NOT in favour making it easier for 16 &17yr olds to change gender. pic.twitter.com/GZNL74ODYg
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No 10 says 'unresolved issues' remain in NI protocol talks with EU as further meeting scheduled
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is holding fresh talks by video this afternoon with Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice-president and EU Brexit negotiator, about the Northern Ireland protocol. It’s at 4pm. The commission spokesperson Daniel Ferrie said:
There is a video call this afternoon between the vice president and James Cleverly, the UK foreign secretary, and Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary of state. We are still scheduling the physical meeting, which is still scheduled to take place later this week.
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson confirmed that negotiations were continuing and said there were still “a number of unresolved issues”. He said:
Negotiations have progressed and that is to be welcomed, but there still remain a number of unresolved issues. And as is the nature of these negotiations it is often some of the more long lasting challenges that need to be addressed as you get to this point and that’s not unusual.
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Former NI secretary Brandon Lewis says Good Friday agreement needs reform because it doesn't produce stability
The Good Friday agreement, which was signed 25 years ago this Easter, is generally seen as a great success story. But, in an article for the Daily Telegraph, Brandon Lewis, the Conservative former Northern Ireland secretary, says it is due for an overhaul. “We must be honest about the fact that it was a brilliant framework for peace but is proving a poor foundation for effective government,” he says. He goes on:
The question we must dare to ask ourselves is: what next? How can the agreement be evolved to better support effective and resilient government for all the people of Northern Ireland? How must the structure of Stormont be reinforced so that it is not so fragile? People deserve accountable politicians and a resilient devolved government that is able to deliver on the issues that matter to them, rather than the sporadic governance of recent years.
It is time for us to confront difficult questions about whether the electoral system in Northern Ireland properly reflects the people and communities it is designed to serve. The growth in the vote for the Alliance party underlines the feeling that many more people now want to vote on issues, not on sectarian lines. That should be embraced as the greatest success of the Belfast/Good Friday agreement. But if the agreement does not evolve further, under current rules, if Alliance and its vote share continues to grow, it will never have the right to nominate the first or deputy first minister. Democracy cannot succeed when it is set in tram lines that can never cross.
The current system works against the Alliance party because in the Northern Ireland assembly parties have to choose a community designation (unionist, nationalist or other) and the first minister and deputy first minister posts are reserved for parties from the largest and second largest designations. The Alliance party came third in the assembly elections last year, but it is the only major party to designate as “other”, and the unionist and nationalist blocs are much larger, giving them control of the top jobs.
Updated
Here is my colleague Libby Brooks’ story about Kate Forbes losing support in the SNP leadership contest because of her personal opposition to same-sex marriage.
In an article for the New Statesman, Chris Deerin, its Scotland editor, says that although Forbes’ campaign has been badly damaged, it might not be terminal. Here is an extract.
Is the Forbes campaign really over before it has begun? Perhaps. But there are several weeks to go and her faith, which admittedly seems unusually deep and ideological, is arguably her only real political weak spot. Soon those awkward questions will exhaust themselves and the debate will move on to other territory.
At some point the candidates will have to talk about economics and public service reform. They will have to address how they would fix Scotland’s increasingly tatty, shuttered cities and towns, and provide a vision of the future that amounts to more than just relentlessly haranguing the population about breaking up the UK. Who will be more convincing on the stuff that matters most to the vast swathe of Scots voters? Does the SNP membership care, or has it swallowed too much of the progressive moon juice? Is it too used to following orders from the higher-ups?
If the Forbes campaign is to survive, she needs to make it to the end of this week relatively intact, then enter next week having changed the conversation. Perhaps this is doable, perhaps it isn’t. But [Humza] Yousaf also has questions to answer. As Forbes’s treasured Bible says, let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us.
Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union addressed the annual farming conference in Birmingham this morning with a grave tone. Pointing out that farmers across the country are going out of business, with the fastest reductions in some sectors such as salad since records began, she said that farmers are facing a huge squeeze and lack of support from government.
She said the Conservatives were “running out of time to walk the walk” and that food security was under severe threat as farmers face rising input costs, inflation, avian influenza and the climate crisis.
So to see Rishi Sunak’s beaming face displayed to the conference as it broadcast a video message from him that had been recorded earlier a felt slightly incongruous.
Striking a cheerful tone, he delivered a policy-free speech full of platitudes. He said:
As a member of parliament for a farming constituency. I’ve worked with farmers and the NFU for years. I’ve even rolled up my sleeves and done the early morning milking at Wensleydale.
Now I know how important your work is. And I know that it’s more than just work. It’s a way of life that is passed down through the generations.
So as prime minister, I want to make sure that you know that I am standing up for you, and that I will work day in and day out to ensure that you can continue to play your vital role in our country and our economy for many years to come.
Prime Minister @RishiSunak has recorded a video for #NFU23.
— National Farmers' Union (@NFUtweets) February 21, 2023
NFU members can watch it here 👇 https://t.co/SpnS2NEjX4 pic.twitter.com/NVO5guWXpx
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Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, is taking questions in the Commons at 11.30am. After that there are three urgent questions: an environment minister replying to Caroline Nokes about whether “water companies are performing adequately”; a levelling up minister replying to Helen Morgan on the rollout of voter ID (which is going very badly, my colleague Peter Walker reports); and a Foreign Office minister replying to Jim Shannon on the Indian government raids of BBC offices in Delhi and Mumbai.
The three UQs will be followed by a statement from Chris Philp, the crime and policing minister, on the Plymouth shootings.
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Teachers, nurses and other health workers on strike in Northern Ireland
Thousands of teachers, nurses and other health care workers are striking in Northern Ireland for better pay and conditions
Unions coordinated a day of action on Tuesday which is to include joint rallies in Belfast, Omagh, Derry, Ballymena, Newry, Bangor and Coleraine.
It is the first strike by the four main teaching unions in six years. Schools are shut until midday, when teachers are to return to class.
Massive turnout at City Hall. The numbers don't lie and show the strength of feeling in the public service. Solidarity with all the unions taking part ✊🏻✊🏻 @NASUWT_NI pic.twitter.com/gVn3UM0Hr0
— Daniel Ryden (@DannyRyden) February 21, 2023
The protest marked a continuation of industrial action by health sector workers. Unite said 4,000 of its members would participate. “With chronic low pay making it impossible to recruit and retain essential health workers, the health service in Northern Ireland is facing an existential crisis,” said Sharon Graham, the union’s general secretary.
The region currently has no education or health minister – or any minister – to respond to the demands. A Democratic Unionist party boycott of power-sharing to protest the Northern Ireland protocol has left Stormont’s executive and assembly defunct.
Cabinet is over. Here are pictures of some of the ministers leaving No 10 after the meeting finished.
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Kate Forbes rejects claims her campaign for SNP leadership has been fatally damaged by her opposition to same-sex marriage
Around this time yesterday, Kate Forbes, the Scottish finance secretary, entered the race to be SNP leader and next first minister. This morning it seems quite possible that her campaign is already in effect over, leaving Humza Yousaf, the Scottish health secretary, as the runaway favourite to win.
This is from James Cook, the BBC’s Scotland editor.
Kate Forbes’ SNP leadership campaign is in trouble already. Several supporters have withdrawn their backing because of her lack of belief in gay marriage. She says this is “fairly mainstream Christian teaching” but insists she would defend the legal right to it despite her views.
— James Cook (@BBCJamesCook) February 21, 2023
Forbes’s problem is that she belongs to the socially conservative Free Church of Scotland and she gave interviews yesterday saying that she would not challenge the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition reform bill, did not support self-identification for trans people and would not have voted for same-sex marriage. She said that she recognised that equal marriage was a legal right and that she wanted to live in a “pluralistic and tolerant society”, but also that she regarded equal marriage as a conscience issue, on which MPs should be entitled to vote according to their personal views.
Tuesday's Record: Forbes: I Would Have Voted Against Gay Marriage #TomorrowsPapersToday #DailyRecord #Record pic.twitter.com/EfLsJMrlEc
— Tomorrows Papers Today (@TmorrowsPapers) February 20, 2023
My colleague Libby Brooks has the detail here.
This morning three SNP MSPs who had been backing Forbes said that, in the light of her comments, they could no longer support her.
This is from Clare Haughey, the minister for children.
I absolutely and completely support equal marriage. I am unequivocal on this issue. I cannot continue to support Kate’s leadership campaign
— Clare Haughey MSP (@haughey_clare) February 21, 2023
This is from Tom Arthur, the public finance minister.
Equal marriage is amongst our Parliament's greatest achievements and one that I would have been proud to vote for had I been an MSP when it was passed.
— Tom Arthur (@ThomasCArthur) February 21, 2023
Consequently, I am unable to continue to support Kate's campaign.
And this is from Gillian Martin, the health committee convener.
We must be full throated in our support of equal marriage. No if or buts. I won’t be supporting Kate’s campaign on that basis. I wish her well- she’s extremely talented. But I have red lines. And this is one.
— Gillian Martin (@GillianMSP) February 21, 2023
This morning, in an interview with the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, Forbes rejected claims that her campaign was fatally damaged. Asked if it was over for her, she replied:
Absolutely not. We have a large party membership, most of whom are not on Twitter.
I understand people have very strong views on these matters. I think the public are longing for politicians to answer straight questions with straight answers and that’s certainly what I’ve tried to do in the media yesterday. That doesn’t necessarily allow for much nuance.
My position on these matters is that I will defend to the hilt everybody’s rights in a pluralistic and tolerant society, to live and to love free of harassment and fear.
Yousaf supports equal marriage and Holyrood’s gender recognition reform bill, and he has said he would challenge the UK’s government’s decision to block it. Ash Regan, the third candidate in the contest, resigned from her post as community safety minister because she could not support the GRR bill.
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Hunt faces calls for bigger public sector pay rises after surprise budget surplus
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is facing calls to offer a bigger pay rise to public sector workers to break months of strike deadlock, after official figures showed stronger than expected government finances, my colleagues Richard Partington and Julia Kollewe report.
Rees-Mogg attacks Sunak's handling of NI protocol talks, saying it's 'very similar to Theresa May'
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary and a former chair of the European Research Group, which represents hardline pro-Brexit Tory MPs, has used his “Moggcast” podcast to criticise Rishi Sunak’s handling of the Northern Ireland protocol negotiations.
Rees-Mogg accused Sunak of being like Theresa May (not a compliment in Tory Brexit circles). Referring to the way No 10 has handled the talks with the EU on rewriting the protocol, with Tory MPs being kept in the dark, he said:
It’s quite surprising, because this is very similar to what happened with Theresa May.
So a story would appear in the Times and Downing Street would say: ‘No, this isn’t quite right, it isn’t at all right’.
And then a week or two would go by and it would turn out to be completely right and they would hope that people would just conveniently fall in behind the announced policy.
And life doesn’t work like that. It’s important to get support for it first before you finalise the details and that doesn’t seem to have been done here.
He said there would be no point having a deal that was unacceptable to the DUP – implying that No 10 was at fault for not accepting this. He said:
There seems to me to be no point in agreeing a deal that does not restore power-sharing.
That must be the objective. If it doesn’t achieve that objective, I don’t understand why the government is spending political capital on something that won’t ultimately succeed.
Sunak definitely wants the DUP to back the deal because he wants power-sharing restored in Northern Ireland, and that won’t happen until the DUP lifts its protocol-inspired boycott of the institutions. But it has been reported that Sunak would be willing to strike a deal without DUP support if he thought it was in the interests of Northern Ireland as a whole. And, while Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, said at the weekend that any deal would have to pass the DUP’s seven tests, No 10 is not taking this line in public.
As Raoul Ruparel, an adviser to May when she was PM, pointed out on Twitter yesterday, in 2019 Rees-Mogg also argued that any Brexit deal would have to be acceptable to the DUP – before he backed the Boris Johnson deal opposed by the DUP because it created a GB/NI customs border in the Irish Sea.
Rees-Mogg defended the Northern Ireland protocol bill, which No 10 seems happy to shelve, saying it has the support of “the person who had a mandate from the British voters” – ie, Boris Johnson. The bill would allow the UK government to unilaterally abandon parts of the current protocol (even though some lawyers say this would be against international law).
The Daily Mail’s Jason Groves has posted a link to the podcast on Twitter.
Jacob Rees-Mogg warns that Sunak’s handling of new Brexit deal is ‘very similar to what happened under Theresa May’, whose deal never passed…https://t.co/Q01tRPmqVi via @conhome
— Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) February 21, 2023
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UK posts surprise budget surplus for January after bumper income tax haul
The UK government ran a surprise £5.4bn surplus in January, after bumper self-assessment income tax receipts, leaving some rooms for giveaways in the chancellor’s budget next month, according to some economists. My colleague Julia Kollewe has the story here.
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Downing Street believes that Rishi Sunak will not technically need to put his deal with the EU for changes to the Northern Ireland protocol to a vote in the Commons, and yesterday No 10 refused to commit to holding one (even though at least one senior Tory said it would be wise to hold a vote anyway).
But, according to Adam Forrest at the Independent, Tory Brexiters are saying that, if Sunak does not schedule a vote, they will force one themselves. He writes:
One Tory Brexiteer, a member of the European Research Group (ERG), told The Independent that backbench rebels could stage a vote of their own if Mr Sunak were to refuse one and enforce a protocol deal without DUP backing.
Another ERG source added: “We absolutely need a vote in Commons when we know what is agreed – it’s right for parliament to have a say in a matter as important as this one. There will be concern shown by MPs if we did not get a vote. There are all sorts of ways a vote can be arranged.”
Minister plays down reports colleagues could resign over Sunak’s Northern Ireland protocol deal
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is still trying to close a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. A few days ago reporters were briefed that he would be unveiling it at cabinet today, but there has been a hold-up because he is still trying to secure the support of Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group and the DUP. The story is stuck in a “not much happening in public” phase.
But that does mean there is no crisis or tension. This is the hardest political problem Sunak has had to face as PM and three outcomes are possible. 1) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal rejected by the DUP, triggering a large revolt by Tory Brexiters. 2) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal, but the DUP is supportive, or at least not too critical, and any Tory revolt is relatively limited. 3) Sunak abandons trying to get a deal for now, and carries on with a status quo. Option 2) would be a small triumph; Sunak would have achieved something that eluded Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. But option 1) would be a disaster for his leadership, and option 3) would amount to a failure too.
Although there is not much happening on the surface, today the Times has splashed on claims that some ministers could resign over the deal proposed by Sunak. In their story Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Bruno Waterfield report:
Another minister told The Times that ministers would quit if the government tried to force through a deal that undermined Northern Ireland’s sovereignty by leaving the province beholden to existing and future EU single market rules.
“The naivety is astonishing,” the minister said. “The strategy hasn’t worked. People won’t allow something that doesn’t ensure sovereignty. Ministers will resign. I couldn’t look myself in the eye and vote through something I thought would undermine sovereignty in Northern Ireland.”
Tuesday's Times: "Brexit deal may trigger resignations, Sunak told" #BBCPapers #TomorrowsPapersToday https://t.co/17UCiV8piu pic.twitter.com/XeoqaQBfbi
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) February 20, 2023
Yesterday, as my colleagues Jessica Elgot, Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey report in our overnight story, Suella Braverman, the home secretary, went public with a strong hint about her reservations over Sunak’s strategy. Braverman is also thought to be concerned that Sunak’s forthcoming asylum bill might not be as draconian as she wants, and No 10 must be keeping an eye on her intentions.
Maria Caulfield, the health minister, was doing an interview round this morning. She played down reports that colleagues were on the brink of resignation, and urged people to wait until the deal was finalised. She told Times Radio:
I think we need to support the prime minister.
There isn’t a deal done yet so all these rumours about ministers or MPs not being happy, I haven’t seen the details, we have to give the prime minister that time and space to get these negotiations done. We need to give him the time and space to thrash out the final elements of any final deal.
We may – or may not – get significant developments on this today. There are also significant developments in the SNP leadership contest, where Kate Forbes’s campaign is in trouble, and Keir Starmer is giving a speech to the NFU.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
10.40am: Mark Spencer, the farming minister, gives a speech to the NFU conference. There will also be a short video address from Sunak.
11.15am: Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and other health officials give evidence to the Commons health committee about prevention in health and social care.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2pm: Keir Starmer speaks to the NFU conference.
3pm: Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee.
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