- Argentina isn't voting this October. The next national election — part of Congress, and the presidency — falls in 2027, and a wave of dueling polls is already underway.
- President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza still tops most 2027 surveys, but the size of the lead ranges from a comfortable double-digit edge in party-brand polling to a margin under one point once pollsters test named candidates.
- Milei's approval sits underwater in every recent survey, generally in the high 30s to low 40s positive against high 50s negative.
- Buenos Aires province polling has blurred two separate 2027 contests — the province's own governor's race and a hypothetical Milei-Kicillof presidential matchup.
- The blue-dollar rate, the number that actually determines what a remittance is worth on arrival, closed the first trading day of September at 1,545 pesos per dollar, roughly 14% above where it stood a year earlier.
No, there's no election on the calendar this October
Argentina's most recent national vote was on Oct. 26, 2025, when legislative midterms handed Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) roughly 41% of the national vote against about 31% for the Peronist-led opposition, a result that outran what most pollsters had projected. The party also pulled off a narrow, historic upset in the country's largest electoral district, Buenos Aires province, which Peronism had controlled for decades, edging the opposition there 41.5% to 40.8%.
That night, Milei told supporters his party's lower-chamber bloc would grow from 37 seats to 101, enough combined with allies to sustain presidential vetoes. Independent legislative trackers put the ruling bloc's actual post-election size somewhat differently depending on how allied deputies are counted — a reminder that even "how big was the win" gets measured more than one way in Argentine political math.
There's no vote scheduled this October. The next one is 2027, when Argentines elect a president and renew part of Congress again — and the polling contest for that race has already started.
The 2027 scoreboard depends on which poll you're holding
A national survey by Equipo Mide, fielded Aug. 11–20 among nearly 2,000 people and reported by Perfil, puts LLA ahead on the party-brand question with 30% of vote intention, followed by kirchnerismo at 20% and non-kirchnerist Peronism at 13%. Tested by name instead of party, Milei leads a first-round presidential scenario with 28% to Buenos Aires Gov. Axel Kicillof's 22%, with leftist lawmaker Myriam Bregman a distant third at 7%.
Equipo Mide's director, Gonzalo de Janin, frames the tension this way: Milei, in some sense, is competing against himself,
pointing to the gap between the president's electoral floor and how badly voters rate the economy day to day.
A newer round of polling tells a tighter story, though. Zentrix Consultora surveyed the country Aug. 25–31 and, according to MDZ Online, found Milei's "secure vote" at 26.5% against Kicillof's 25.9% — a six-tenths-of-a-point gap, comfortably inside any reasonable margin of error. A separate national poll by consultancy Proyección, fielded July 1–10 and published in late August, found Milei and Kicillof running an outright dead heat in a hypothetical runoff, 42.4% to 42.5%, according to Perfil, with a similarly tight first-round scenario.
None of that means Milei has lost his lead — every recent survey still puts him at or near the top of the field. It means the size of that lead can swing by 10 points or more depending on the sample window and whether the question names a party or a person. Two outlets covering the "same" race this month could reasonably be describing two different pictures.
On approval, the story holds together more consistently across pollsters. Equipo Mide puts Milei's image at 38% positive to 59% negative. The AtlasIntel-Bloomberg Latam Pulse survey, which tracks the president monthly, had him at roughly 40% approval against 58% disapproval in June, an improvement from an April low near 36% but still underwater by nearly 20 points.
Buenos Aires: two different races, two different pictures
Coverage of Buenos Aires province polling this year has occasionally blurred two separate contests, and it's worth pulling them apart. One is the 2027 race for governor, the seat Kicillof currently holds. The other is a hypothetical presidential matchup between Milei and Kicillof, measured specifically among voters who live in the province — not the same election.
On the governor's race, a DC Consultores poll of 1,410 residents, fielded July 27–Aug. 3, found a hypothetical LLA-PRO alliance leading the Peronist/kirchnerist vote 40.1% to 30.8%, per El Cronista. On the presidential matchup, a separate survey of 1,200 provincial voters by La Tintorería, fielded July 20–22, found the opposite result: Kicillof ahead of Milei, 43% to 40.8%, with 16.2% undecided, according to Letra P. Projected onto the undecided vote, that gap widens to 2.6 points.
What it means for the diaspora: the peso, remittances, travel
None of the polling above settles anything for this calendar year, since there's no vote to settle. But it shapes the backdrop diaspora families are budgeting around. Argentina's informal "blue" dollar closed the first trading session of September at 1,545 pesos per dollar, according to La Nación, up roughly 14% from the same date a year earlier, when it closed at 1,355. That's the figure that actually determines what a remittance is worth once it lands, more so than the official rate the government publishes.
Washington helped calm the currency once already: the U.S. Treasury opened a $20 billion swap line with Argentina's central bank last October, days before the midterm vote, alongside a pledge to buy Argentine debt, according to reporting at the time. Argentina fully repaid that swap by January 2026. The facility actually reinforcing reserves as of this September is a separate one: the central bank's long-standing currency swap with China, renewed to a five-year term in August for a $5 billion tranche.
Getting ready to vote from the U.S.
Voting from abroad is optional for Argentine citizens. Consular rolls from the most recent national election cycle, reported by TodoJujuy, put roughly 101,000 Argentines registered to vote across the United States, with about 35,800 of them assigned to the Miami consulate. Spain, not the U.S., actually has the larger overseas Argentine electorate — roughly 115,000 registered voters, about 47,000 of them assigned to Barcelona.
Registration runs through the national electoral chamber's Registro de Electores portal, tied to the address listed on a citizen's DNI. Anyone who's moved since the last update should confirm their listing well before 2027 campaigning heats up, since voter rolls for citizens abroad typically close months ahead of any vote.
Polling this far from an election is directional, not predictive, and can shift substantially before ballots are cast.
