Football is a game of fine margins. Win, lose or draw. Keep or sell. Renewal or sacking. Yet, most of all, the difference often comes down to success for a team or failure.
The definitions for these two outcomes are very different for every club. The expectations on a team vary, despite the ultimate goal being to finish as high as possible. Speak to a Manchester City fan and ask what they constitute as success and it will differ from a chat with a Burnley supporter. Context is key and for an Arsenal fan, sometimes it can be very difficult to define.
The Arsenal problem with success and failure lies in the expectations of the fan base varying so different from one to another. The club is considered one of the biggest in the world thanks to the work of so many great custodians, managers and players who won title after title to establish Arsenal as an English giant.
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However, the last league title was back in 2004 after a season without a single defeat. The expectation has always been for Arsenal to return to that level but with the competition in the modern era so much bigger with financial weight so integral it has become a difficult task.
Presently, Arsenal appear to be on the right path after years of regression that began at the end of Arsene Wenger’s reign, throughout Unai Emery’s short tenure and at the start of Mikel Arteta’s too. A top-four race is a welcome sight not seen since the 2018-19 season when Emery missed out foolishly by a single point. A repeat of the 2016/17 season, the year the Gunners finally fell out of their established top-four position.
Arsenal this season were a surprise to be in the hunt for fourth though. Despite spending more than any other side in the summer, the previous season’s eighth-place sparked the beginning of a rebuild. The squad has seen plenty of departures and six new young faces came in during the summer of 2021.
At a minimum, Arsenal had to return to European football to show they were moving back towards their ultimate goal to emulate their successful past. And I am not talking about the UEFA Conference League as a return to “Europe.”
After the summers of Manchester United and Chelsea, many believed a four-way title fight with Man City and Liverpool could be on the cards. However, it has been Arsenal and Spurs usurping a dire United team in turmoil this season and threatening to even catch the Blues.
This though is where the misconceptions, for me, begin to reveal themselves. There is a narrative that Arsenal are in a race due to their rivals’ own failures. Few can deny that United have underperformed compared to the season’s expectation of them.
However, Arsenal have elevated themselves to a position where the end of season points total is expected to be that of a level that would fall in line with the previous season’s top four points tallies. They have done this of their own merit with strong performances, solid defensive displays and progression in many areas from the last half-decade.
Therefore, should the Gunners finish outside the top four, personally, I would consider it a big disappointment considering the opportunity the club gave itself this season but not a failure. For me, failure implies that the manager should be sacked.
I do not feel this would be the smartest move. The Gunners' pathway back to the top required changes that Mikel Arteta has put in place. Accountability in the side, improvement of the recruitment department, reducing the wage bill, creating a pathway for Hale End graduate, improving player's key deficiencies as shown in Emile Smith-Rowe and Bukayo Saka’s goal output for example, and bringing about a connection between the squad and the majority of supporters.
Sacking the coach and bringing in someone new, of which there are few candidates I feel suitable at the moment, risks reversing these steps. The caveat here is the contract renewal for Arteta whose deal expires in 2023.
Should he reach the top four a contract is not in question. However, miss out and I would wait until the following season. Keep the control in the hands of the club and see if this season is truly a mark of the steps being taken in the right direction. It protects the club’s interests and with Arteta vocally stating his intention to continue the risk of a contract rejection is very slim.
Football is not a binary sport. Despite the differences between what Arsenal might constitute failure and success, there is a middle ground of moving from one to the other and that, I feel, is certainly the pathway being experienced right now. Later down the line, it might prove not to be, but for now, there simply is far too much going in favour of a continuation.
