ORLANDO, Fla. — As the news broke earlier this week about the Big Ten’s landmark TV deal that will reportedly net the league nearly $8 billion over seven years, I started humming the old Hank Williams classic "Move It On Over" in which the late, great country music legend tells the story of an estranged husband who boldly states that he will rise up and once again become the king of his castle.
“Move it on over, rock it on over,
Move over little dog cuz the big dog’s movin’ in.”
Isn’t that what the alienated Big Ten, which has been playing second fiddle on the football field for years, was essentially singing to the SEC after it signed its mega-billion, multi-layered TV deal with Fox, CBS and NBC earlier this week?
“Move it on over, slide it on over,
“Move over poor dog cuz the rich dog’s movin in.”
Of course, the SEC isn’t “poor” by any means, but you get the idea. When the Big Ten inked the most lucrative media rights deal in the history of college athletics earlier this week, my biggest takeaway was this: The SEC might be the best conference in college football, but the Big Ten is the richest conference in college football and probably always will be.
The Big Ten’s shocking expansion to add USC and UCLA earlier this year and then following it up by signing this earth-shaking, ground-breaking TV deal will have far-reaching trickle-down implications even on the programs in our state — the Gators, Seminoles, Knights and Hurricanes.
Let’s start with the Gators and their conference, the SEC, which undoubtedly had its ego bruised when the Big Ten deal was announced. There’s no doubt the Big Ten has one-upped the SEC by signing an NFL-type media-rights agreement worth significantly more money that also gets the Big Ten premium spots on three major networks (Fox at noon on Saturday, CBS at 3:30 p.m. and NBC in prime time). And not only is the Big Ten’s seven-year deal more lucrative, it is shorter than the SEC’s 10-year deal, which means the Big Ten can negotiate its next TV contract before the SEC does.
Yes, the SEC has won 12 of the last 16 national championships, but there’s no denying it is largely still a regional league. The Big Ten is now a coast-to-coast conference with programs placed in all of the major media markets — New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.
However, don’t kid yourself, the SEC doesn’t like being perceived as inferior to anyone, especially in college football’s ever-escalating arms race. This is why the Gators and the SEC might actually end up benefiting from the Big Ten’s deal. Just compare it to Alabama coach Nick Saban — the greatest coach in college football. You ever notice how Saban always gets a raise right after another coach signs a new deal that surpasses Saban on the salary scale?
Just as Alabama wants to keep Saban happy by always making him the highest-paid coach in college football, perhaps Disney (ESPN/ABC) will renegotiate and give the SEC a raise just to keep the league happy and on equal footing with the Big Ten. In exchange, the SEC could go to a nine- or even 10-game conference schedule to give ESPN/ABC more good games and more premium programming.
As for UCF and its new league, the Big 12, they should be sending the Big Ten an extra large wine-and-cheese gift basket this holiday season.
I had a conversation with nationally renowned college football insider Brett McMurphy on Friday and he continues to say and report that the Big Ten is not done expanding and is targeting more Pac-12 teams such as Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal. What does that mean? It means fellow Pac-12 members Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado aren’t going to want to wait around for the Big Ten to further ravage the Pac-12 and might just pull the ripcord and parachute into the Big 12.
An expanded Big 12 obviously means the league becomes a more attractive entity when it negotiates its new TV deal after the 2024-25 season. And with ESPN losing the Big Ten and the Pac-12 potentially becoming extinct, it might also mean the four-letter network will have more money to spend when the Big 12 TV contract comes up. Don’t be shocked if the Big 12 — even without Texas and Oklahoma — signs a new deal that rivals or perhaps even surpasses the ACC’s current deal.
Which brings us to FSU and Miami, which seem to be stuck in a conference that signed a bad TV deal with ESPN that is in place for 14 — FOURTEEN! — more years. When the SEC’s and Big Ten’s new TV deals kick in, it’s been projected that ACC programs could make about $50 million per year per team LESS than SEC programs.
The financial chasm between the ACC and the Big Ten obviously will be even more gaping. And how galling must it be for Clemson, FSU and Miami to know that perennial also-rans Vanderbilt, Purdue and Rutgers will be bringing in half-a-billion dollars more than every team in the ACC over a 10-year-period?
I hate to say it, but Florida State and Miami might just be singing another Hank Williams song:
I’m So Lonesome I Could Cry.
