Dan Mullen is done.
It just hasn’t been announced yet.
I believe Florida Gators athletic director Scott Stricklin has already made the decision to fire his head coach.
Understandably, Stricklin likely won’t announce Mullen’s departure this week because the Gators still have next Saturday’s Bowl Eligibility Playoff against Florida State but I believe Mullen is finished after Saturday’s 24-23 loss to Missouri in which Tigers coach Eliah Drinkwitz made the incredibly gutsy overtime decision to go for the two-point conversion and the victory.
You could just sense in Mullen’s downtrodden demeanor after the game that even he knows he is about to lose his job. He admitted afterwards that he had discussions with Stricklin last week about his future; discussions that included “what direction we need to go with assistant coaches.”
Now the $12 million (Mullen buyout) question is: What direction will UF go with its head coach?
For the sake of Gator Nation, I hope Stricklin makes the correct move; I’m just not sure firing Mullen is the right decision.
I certainly understand the logic of making a coaching change. It is the easy and popular decision for an AD to fire a coach who is now 5-6 this season (the first time he has had a losing record at UF) and is 2-9 against his last 11 Power 5 opponents.
However, unless Stricklin has some huge, hush-hush ace-in-the-hole hire up his sleeve — unless he has clandestinely convinced Bob Stoops to come out retirement (and, yes, I’m hearing Stoops might be interested) or unless he believes he can persuade Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell to come to Gainesville — then perhaps Stricklin should keep Mullen.
Other than Stoops or Fickell, who could the Gators hire that would be better than their current head coach? Let’s remember that the available list of candidates aren’t always what you think they will be. The last time the UF job opened up, the three top candidates were Scott Frost, Chip Kelly and Mullen. Frost is currently 3-8 at Nebraska, has never had a winning record (15-28 overall) and just took a pay cut just so he could save his job for one more season. Kelly, meanwhile, is 17-25 at UCLA and has had three losing seasons in four years.
Mullen has been to three consecutive New Year’s 6 bowl games and nearly beat national champion Alabama in the SEC Championship game last year before the wheels fell off of his program in the latter half of this season.
If you ask me, the head-coaching talent pool is especially shallow now for the number of good jobs available. It’s no secret the Gators would be competing with other top programs should they fire Mullen. The LSU and USC jobs are open, and a case could be made that those are just as good if not better than the Florida job. The Miami job will likely soon be open. Washington, Virginia Tech and TCU are also open.
Yes, the Gators could go hire Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss, but that would pretty much torpedo UF’s longstanding stated policy of winning championships with integrity.
Or they could enter the sweepstakes for Michigan State coach Mel Tucker, who has had two losing seasons in three years as a head coach and got thrashed 56-7 by Ohio State on Saturday (Hey, Spartans, are you REALLY going to give Tucker a 10-year, $95 million contract extension?)
The Gators could also roll the dice and try their luck on a couple of up-and-comers such as Billy Napier at Louisiana or Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina, but those candidates certainly aren’t sure things.
Or — and I know this is unheard of in today’s impatient, impetuous world of college football — they could stick with Mullen instead of continuing the debilitating trend of changing coaches every three or four years.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Mullen is one of the best offensive play-callers and game-planners in college football — two qualities that are very hard to find in a head coach. Does Gator Nation forget how awful and unwatchable the offense was in four years under Will Muschamp and three years under Jim McElwain?
Let me remind you. Here is where Florida’s offense ranked nationally in the seven years of Muschamp and McElwain: 105th, 104th, 115th, 96th, 112th, 116th, 110th.
Here is where Florida’s offense has ranked in four years under Mullen: 42nd, 45th, 9th and 9th. Translation: Mullen was brought in largely to fix Florida’s offense and he’s done that.
The real issue, of course, is Mullen’s recruiting — or lack thereof. Does the head coach have the desire and work ethic to be a big-boy SEC recruiter, embrace and grind and hit the recruiting trail like his hair’s on fire?
It’s not like Mullen doesn’t have the personality and charisma to become a great recruiter. He can be charming, engaging and funny when wants to be. Moreover, the Gators are about to open their palatial, new $95 million stand-alone football complex, which will be the most luxurious in the state and one of the nicest in the country. This massive facilities upgrade should also be a major boon to recruiting.
However, it doesn’t matter.
I believe Scott Stricklin has already made the decision to fire Dan Mullen, I’m just not sure it’s the right decision.
Unless he can make a home-run hire like Bob Stoops.
