We’re a little more than halfway through this women’s college basketball season. A bit more than a month of conference play remains, and contenders are beginning to separate themselves from pretenders.
South Carolina still looks like the best team in the country, but the likes of Indiana, Ohio State and LSU have joined Stanford and UConn as teams that might be able to give the Gamecocks a good fight, should they meet in March.
The Big Ten has four teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 Poll, while the ACC has six teams in the top 25. Right now, it looks like anyone can win either of those conferences, which should make for interesting battles down the stretch.
Some mid-major powers are emerging, and a few players – like Angel Reese, Maddy Siegrist and Caitlin Clark – are making the case why they should be in the Player of the Year race.
With that, let’s dive into the questions. We might have some answers.
Who has the best case to challenge South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston for Player of the Year?
Mitchell: Angel Reese, LSU
I think very highly of Brenda Frese, the head coach at Maryland who seems to have a great team every single year and has a reputation of producing post players who succeed in the WNBA, from Crystal Langhorne to Brionna Jones. So, I thought it was a bit weird when Angel Reese decided to leave the Terps for LSU.
But all she’s done for the Tigers is flourish. Reese has put herself right next to Aliyah Boston in the Player of the Year conversation. The 6-foot-3 junior from Baltimore is fifth in the nation in scoring with 24.2 points per game, second in the country in rebounding with 15.6 boards per game, and first in all of Division I women’s college basketball in PER (49.8) and win shares (11.8). She’s also seventh in offensive (137.0) and defensive (62.8) rating. It’s hard to argue with those numbers. And the folks who decide on these awards can’t ignore what Reese has done this season.
Cole: Angel Reese, LSU
I agree with you, Mitch. You could round up a list of candidates but I’m not sure that any of those potential players’ resumes would hold a candle to what Angel Reese is doing in her first year at LSU. I mean, looking at Reese’s game log this season is like looking at a created players’ in any basketball video game. She’s rebounding and scoring at a ridiculously high clip and no matter which other players are on the court, the result is the same. I have a feeling that LSU’s February 12 date with South Carolina is going to go a long way in determining who that Player of the Year Award goes to.
NO SHOE? NO PROBLEM‼️
Angel Reese with the denial🚫 pic.twitter.com/hbG0okvoez
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 20, 2023
The ACC is wild this season. Who wins the conference?
Cole: Notre Dame
Listen, I’ve kind of adopted the Fighting Irish as my team over the past year and a half, which has almost everything to do with how much I enjoy watching Olivia Miles play basketball. She’s fantastic in just about every area that matters in the sport and her well-roundedness can lead the team a long way. But Notre Dame is much more than just Miles. Sophomore forward Sonia Citron has upped her play in Year 2 to potentially become an All-ACC First or Second-Team player by years end and Lauren Ebo is making a big difference in the middle in her first year after transferring from Texas. The Fighting Irish will certainly miss the knockdown shooting of Dara Mabrey, who injured her ACL over the weekend and will miss the remainder of the season.
Still, I think they have enough to still figure things out.But many teams atop the ACC are strong, so what separates Notre Dame down the stretch? The fighting Irish will play eight of their final 11 regular-season games at home, which should be enough to secure them the No. 1 overall seed in the conference tournament.
Mitchell: North Carolina
The Tar Heels have had their fair share of hiccups this season – like losing to Indiana and Michigan, and starting ACC play 0-3 – but Courtney Banghart’s side looks like it has rounded into form lately. UNC has won five straight ACC games, a streak that includes wins over Notre Dame, N.C. State and Duke. It’s the first time ever that UNC has beaten N.C. State and Duke in back-to-back games when both have been ranked.
What’s been key for UNC this season is its defense. The Heels allow opponents to shoot just 35.5% from the floor, which is the 20th best mark in the nation. And UNC has played a tough schedule too, the 11th strongest according to HerHoopStats. And while a lot of teams added transfers this offseason, the Tar Heels zagged and are running it back with a group that gave South Carolina a good fight in the Sweet 16 last year. Deja Kelly, Alyssa Ustby and Kennedy Todd-Williams look like All-ACC players, and they’ve been playing together – and with serviceable forward Anya Poole – for three seasons now. That core might be enough to carry the Heels to their first ACC title since 2008.
A few photos from @uncwbb's win over NC State: #ACCwbb #ncaaW pic.twitter.com/O01RUHcWj6
— Mitchell Northam (@primetimeMitch) January 16, 2023
Is Florida State’s Ta’Niya Latson the best freshman in the country?
Cole: Yes
Serious question — is there a debate?
Mitchell: Yes
I’ll just link to this story here, about Latson lighting up N.C. State, and we can move on. Not only does she look like the best freshman in the nation, she might be the best player in the ACC this season.
.@Lexiebrown & @kellygramlich are all in on Ta'Niya Latson 🏀@NiyaLatson | @fsuwbb pic.twitter.com/jgFeHFksiy
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) January 13, 2023
What team has been the biggest disappointment?
Mitchell: Texas
The Longhorns were ranked third in the AP Top 25 Poll to start the season, and boy, did we overrate them. It’s midseason and the Longhorns look mediocre. Sure, they’ll probably make the NCAA Tournament, but this is a team a lot of folks thought could win the Big 12 and compete for a national championship. Now, it would be shocking to see the Longhorns advance past the Sweet 16.
On paper, the pieces seem to be there. Rori Harmon, Shaylee Gonzales and Sonya Morris are all playing well and are as good as any guard trio in the country. And HerHoopStats still ranks Texas as the 13th best team in the country per its rating metric.
Still, something isn’t clicking. For one thing, the Longhorns foul far too often. Their opponents are getting 25.3% of their points from the charity stripe, which is the sixth-worst mark in the nation – out of 361 Division I women’s basketball teams. Texas also isn’t particularly great at generating looks from behind the arc with a 3-point rate of 17.7%, which is the fifth-worst mark in the country.
Texas rattled off an eight-game win streak earlier this season, but has lost to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech recently and look far from a team capable of making the Final Four.
Cole: N.C. State
Let’s be clear right away; N.C. State is not having a bad season by any means. But, I personally thought this Wolfpack team had enough to compete for a national championship. They still might, but they’re not playing like it. With a 14-5 record on the season and only a 4-4 record in conference play, N.C. State is hovering around the middle of the ACC about midway through the season. That couldn’t have been the plan.
The Pack still has to play North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame (all current top 25 teams) and Louisville at least one more time. They won’t win enough of those games to make a play for the conference championship, but how they fare in those contests could shape what type of momentum they take into the postseason.
Don't sleep on the Pack 😏 pic.twitter.com/FGLVXPZpaD
— NC State WBB 🐺🏀 (@PackWomensBball) January 22, 2023
Which player has taken the biggest leap forward this year?
Cole: Alissa Pili, Utah
Alissa Pili’s trajectory has been all over the place throughout her college career. From 16.3 points and 8.0 rebounds in as a freshman, to 11.0 points and 3.8 rebounds as a sophomore and 7.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in during her junior season, there couldn’t have been many people out there that thought Pili would regain her Pac-12 Freshman of the Year form when headed to Utah for her fourth year of college basketball. Not only has she regained her form, but she’s become an even better version of her former self.
Pili’s career-best average of 20.1 points per game is leading the Utah Utes to their best to one of its best seasons in school history.
Mitchell: Nika Muhl, UConn
One of the reasons why UConn has been able to endure injuries to Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Carolina Ducharme this season has been the play of Nika Muhl, who all of sudden looks like one of the best point guards in the country.
A season ago, Muhl was averaging just 3.8 points and 2.6 assists per game while playing 21.7 minutes a night for the Huskies. This season, she’s doubled her scoring total while dishing out an absurd amount of dimes – 8.7 per game, which leads the country. She’s been durable – missing just one of UConn’s 19 games this season – and leads the team in minutes played at 35 per game. Muhl isn’t just one of the top passers in the country; she’s a big reason why we’re still considering UConn as a contender for the national title.
𝕋𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕗𝕚𝕟𝕕!
Huskies turning defense to offense as Nika Muhl hits Aubrey Griffin in stride.
Good one going on FS1!@UConnWBB x #BIGEASTwbb pic.twitter.com/JHLdqDI443
— BIG EAST WBB (@BIGEASTWBB) November 15, 2022
What coach has done the most impressive job so far this season?
Mitchell: Amaka Agugua-Hamilton, Virginia
Virginia has come back down to earth a bit since starting the season 12-0 – the ‘Hoos have now lost five of their last six games – but we still shouldn’t ignore the impressive turnaround that Agugua-Hamilton has engineered in Charlottesville.
Consider: Virginia is 14-6 so far this season. During Tina Thompson’s unremarkable four-year reign as head coach, the most games the Cavaliers ever won was 13 (and that was done with players largely recruited by Thompson’s predecessor, Joanne Boyle). If Virginia wins just two of its remaining nine games, it’ll finish with a winning record for the first time since the 2017-18 season.
But Virginia’s goals are much higher than that, and opposing coaches no longer consider the ‘Hoos as a date they can circle on the calendar as a sure victory. Behind the improved play of Camryn Taylor, Sam Brunelle and Taylor Valladay, Virginia might find itself playing beyond the ACC Tournament in March.
Cole: Kim Barnes Arico, Michigan
The Wolverines were mostly an NIT team (a great one) early in Barnes Arico’s tenure as the team’s head coach, but in the second half of her tenure, Michigan’s consistently been an NCAA Tournament team. The Wolverines have made it a round farther in each of the last three NCAA Tourney’s but after losing most of their top-end talent after their latest postseason run, expectations weren’t as high.
But none of that has mattered at all. Michigan (16-3) has a chance to finish with its best regular season record since Barnes Arico became head coach. Hats off to her and hats off to the team.
Nothing quite like waking up after a road win@Lailaphelia x @gretakamp10 #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/WNtUlQ1Anf
— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 20, 2023
What mid-major team has the best chance of becoming a Cinderella in March?
Cole: UNLV
The Rebels had a remarkable 2021-22 season and somehow got better! They didn’t do it by grabbing many transfers from the portal or by bringing in a top-ranked recruiting class. This a team that almost beat Arizona in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tourney and got better with experience. Although their run lasted just one game last postseason, it was valuable, and its going to serve them well this March.
Mitchell: Middle Tennessee State
I’ve been ranking MTSU in my AP Top 25 Poll ballot for a few weeks now. Here’s why:
- The Blue Raiders have the nation’s fourth longest win streak at 14 wins in a row.
- 13 of their 16 wins have been by 18 or more points.
- They have real talent: three MTSU players have scored more than 1,000 points in college.
- They’ve beaten four teams that went to the NCAA Tournament last season.
- HerHoopStats has MTSU in the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive rating.
MTSU’s offense is mighty impressive, ranking 27th in points per scoring attempt (1.10) and 11th nationally in points per play (0.94). And their defense is more than just decent too, holding opponents to a 35.1% field goal percentage, which is the 16th-best in the country. The Blue Raiders don’t have a gimmick; they’re just good.
Winning mindset. #BLUEnited | #TrueBlue pic.twitter.com/npaUz0Ke0B
— MT Women's Basketball (@MT_WBB) January 22, 2023
Who’s making the Final Four?
Cole: South Carolina, Stanford, Indiana, UConn
I feel very strongly about the first three teams on this list. South Carolina might repeat as national champs. Stanford, despite dropping one to USC last week, is probably the Gamecocks’ toughest matchup. And Indiana is an absolutely scary team on the offensive end the way it can spread the floor out and dominate the opposing defense.
UConn is a Final Four team if Azzi Fudd returns from injury this season. Currently, there is no timetable for her return after re-injuring the same knee that had kept her out of action for about a month earlier in this season. The Huskies are still good enough to win the Big East without her services, but they’ll need that extra weapon during bracket play. However, if Fudd can’t make it back, I’ll take Maryland as a surprise Final Four team. I can get behind the idea of Diamond Miller taking her game to another level and pulling the Terps to the last weekend of the season.
Mitchell: South Carolina, Stanford, LSU, Iowa
If this prediction comes to fruition, it would be the first Final Four without UConn or an ACC team since 2005. It’s possible this year, considering UConn has endured a wild amount of injury woes, and no ACC team has quite separated itself from the pack as an elite contender.
South Carolina and Stanford feel like locks to go to the Final Four for the third straight year. LSU – albeit playing a soft non-conference schedule – hasn’t lost yet and is armed with a legitimate star in Angel Reese. And Iowa has Caitlin Clark, a player more than capable of carrying a team to a Final Four. The Hawkeyes showed Monday night, by beating previously unbeaten Ohio State, that they could win the Big Ten, the most top-heavy conference in the country. If Clark’s team breezes through the Big Ten tournament, look for them to keep playing deep into March.
Good am to the new South Carolina double-double 𝕼𝖚𝖊𝖊𝖓 – @aa_boston pic.twitter.com/XL0mB3jnkM
— South Carolina Women's Basketball (@GamecockWBB) January 23, 2023
