Karnataka Assembly elections this time around were, according to rhetoric, supposed to be transformative. These polls were to make the BJP go beyond the Lingayat vote, the Congress beyond the Vokkaliga and Ahinda base and the Janata Dal (S) beyond its pocketbrorough of Hassan and Mandya. Just two weeks ahead of results, however, each party is fighting to retain its traditional support base, dreams of expansion put on hold as parties fight a rearguard action.
Let us first look at the ruling party, the BJP. These were the polls that the BJP was depending on to do a Gujarat in Karnataka, that is, phase out a generation of leaders and an overwhelming dependence on just one big caste group, the Lingayats. The BJP gave 47 tickets to the Vokkaliga community, and 37 to Scheduled Castes, two more seats than are reserved for SCs. The BJP also tied up with independent MP Sumalatha Ambareesh in Mandya, Old Mysore, the home of Vokkaliga domination and a place where the BJP hardly gets traction.
But as senior Lingayat leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi rebelled and crossed over to other parties, the party faced the prospect of the Lingayat community, if not voting against the BJP then at least being less than enthusiastic, a situation where the Congress would gain considerably.
