Michigan's Senate Toss-Up: El-Sayed Holds a 2-Point Edge With 11 Days to Save the Majority

US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, Democrat from Michigan, speaks at a labor rally at Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan, on October 22, 2026. El-Sayed is competing against Republican candidate Mike Rodgers for Michigan's US Senate seat in the upcoming midterm elections. (Credit: Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP via Getty Images)

The Briefing

• The latest Marist poll (Oct. 15–18, 1,185 likely voters) places El-Sayed at 50% to Rogers' 48% — inside the ±4.3-point margin of error — making Michigan's November 3 Senate race a statistical dead heat with 11 days remaining.
• A broad labor coalition anchored by the UAW's June endorsement and later joined by the AFGE, SEIU locals, Michigan AFL-CIO, and AFT Michigan has consolidated behind El-Sayed — the widest union backing any Democratic Senate nominee has assembled this cycle. El-Sayed personally holds union cards in four organizations: AFT, SEIU Local 500, the National Writers Union, and the AAUP.
• Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim it; Michigan is a must-hold open seat in a state Trump won in 2024, and prediction markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket price El-Sayed's chances in the 69–71% range.