DETROIT — Ballot proposals that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state Constitution, change legislative term limits and expand access to voting enjoy support from a majority of likely Michigan voters, according to a new statewide poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
Proposal 3, the abortion rights initiative, has 55% support among likely voters, down from 61% backing in a late September poll.
But around 10% of likely voters polled said they could still be swayed, with 6.4% saying they were a "probable yes" on Prop 3 and 3.5% a "probable no."
Abortion has been one of the most animating issues for Michigan voters in the wake of a U.S. Supreme Court decision this summer that struck down a longstanding Roe v. Wade ruling that required abortion access nationwide. A plurality of poll respondents said abortion is the biggest thing pushing them to vote this November, with 36% citing it as their top motivating issue.
"What we find particularly on social issues ... (is) once you take a position, you don't shift on your position," said pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll. "I think these numbers have settled into that pattern."
That means opponents of the proposal will have to convince the remaining 6% of probably yes voters to change their minds, Czuba said, which is "a tall order."
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 26-28, with around 28% of voters contacted by landline and 72% contacted by cellphone. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The proposal would create a right to "reproductive freedom" in the state Constitution, which would override a 1931 state law banning abortion that would be in effect if it weren't held up in legal battles. That right under Prop 3 would encompass all decisions related to pregnancy and prohibits infringement except in the case of a "compelling state interest."
The Legislature would be allowed to regulate abortion after fetal viability, with an exception for cases in which a health care professional deemed it necessary “to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual.”
Women support Prop 3 by a margin of 63% to 34%, while men now narrowly oppose it 47% to 48% — a decrease of 11 percentage points since late last month. Groups opposing the proposal have been successful in gaining support from Republican men, Czuba said.
Among them is Mike McCain, a retired Ford Motor Co. manager living in Fife Lake. He said he plans to vote no on Prop 3, though the issue is “complicated” for him because he does support abortion access early in a pregnancy and exceptions for victims of rape and incest. But the ballot language, he said, goes “too far.”
“The thing that really gets me is I am definitely against up-to-birth abortion. To me, I can’t go along with it. That’s almost murder if you abort somebody the day before they’re born. And that’s what they’re pushing,” said McCain. “If there was a compromise somewhere around the first term, or whatever you call it, I would probably go along with that. But they keep pushing and pushing and pushing it further and further.”
The sharpest decreases in support for the proposal have come among people who identified as Catholic and non-denominational Christians, as the Catholic church in Michigan has ramped up efforts to oppose Prop 3. Catholic support dropped from 56% in September to 47% in October, and support among non-denominational voters dropped from 57% to 40%.
Even with the drop in support, Catholic voters remain split with 47% supporting and 48% opposing Prop 3.
Carolyn Zimmerman, a retiree in Lakeside in Berrien County, is Catholic and said she voted absentee in support of Prop 3.
“I know problems can happen in pregnancy, and sometimes an abortion is needed to take care of whatever issues might turn up. I feel, at times, it could be a necessity for a mother,” she said. “I don't feel if anyone was raped or (a victim of) incest, that they should have to go through with the pregnancy.”
Zimmerman, who usually votes Democratic, acknowledged that her church teaches differently.
“That's just the way I feel,” she said. “Everybody has their own opinions, but you just have to go with what feels right.”
Poll respondents also indicated broad support for Proposals 1 and 2.
Proposal 1 would relax term limits in the state Legislature, allowing lawmakers to serve a total of 12 years in either the state House or Senate. Currently, lawmakers are allowed up to six years in the House and eight in the Senate. It would also require members of the state Legislature to file annual financial disclosure reports. Michigan is currently one of only two states without a financial disclosure law.
More than 71% of voters said they would vote yes on Prop 1, while 26% said they would vote no. That support crosses party and demographic lines, Czuba said, and no strong effort has emerged to defeat it.
About 42% of the poll's respondents said they vote Republican, 41% said they vote Democrat and 16% identify as political independents.
"Both (limiting time in Lansing and requiring financial disclosure) are strong concepts with voters," said Czuba, who has also done internal polling for the group supporting the initiative. "This is one of those really, really rare proposals where both sides can kind of agree on this."
The voting rights proposal, Proposal 2, would amend the state Constitution to require nine days of early in-person early voting, akin to current Election Day voting.
It would also count absentee ballots coming from overseas or from military members as long as they are postmarked by Election Day; allow voters to use one absentee ballot application to automatically get absentee ballots in the future; create a right against harassment of voters or regulations that "unreasonably burden" the right to vote; and more.
Nearly 64% of respondents said they would vote yes on Prop 2, while 33% said they would vote no. Democrats overwhelmingly support Prop 2 while Republicans narrowly oppose it. Independent voters fell 63-31.5% in favor of the proposal.
"Proposal 2 is clearly in a position to pass," Czuba said. "You'd need a lot more opposition from Republicans to defeat this thing and you'd have to turn Independents."
_____
