Welcome to FTW Explains, a guide to catching up on and better understanding stuff going on in the world. Are you wondering about the severity of Michigan’s alleged NCAA violations and whether Jim Harbaugh is heading back to the NFL? We’re here to help.
Even after it was eliminated against TCU in the College Football Playoff semifinal on New Year’s Eve, Michigan’s football program has remained in the headlines. Thursday, the Wolverines received a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA accusing the program of multiple Level II violations and one Level I violation.
This news comes amid rumors that Harbaugh could be looking to jump ship to the NFL. Here’s what we know about the whole situation, at this point.
What exactly is Michigan accused of?
According to The Athletic‘s Austin Meek and Nicole Auerbach, Michigan is accused of a total of four Level II violations. These stem from impermissible contact with recruits during the COVID-19 recruiting dead period, as well as a self-reported violation “for improper use of an analyst for on-field instruction.”
Both of these are considered minor violations.
More concerning for the Wolverines is the Level I violation, which comes against Harbaugh specifically. The coach is accused of providing false or misleading information to investigators regarding contact with two prospects during the dead period.
Is Harbaugh in hot water with the university and/or NCAA?
Harbaugh’s contract requires him to comply with NCAA rules and cooperate fully with the university when it comes to the enforcement of those rules. It’s unclear if this would constitute a violation of those clauses, though The Athletic notes that Harbaugh didn’t receive a show-cause penalty, and the university received no “lack of institutional control” charges.
If the NCAA doles out a punishment for the Level I violation, it would be levied against Harbaugh specifically, according to the Detroit Free Press, and could include a suspension.
What are the next steps for Michigan?
Now that Michigan has received its NOA, the university has 90 days to respond to the allegations. Among the possible responses would be self-imposed penalties, which are often used to avoid harsher punishments from the NCAA.
The NCAA then has 90 more days to respond with additional charges or punishments before the case goes before the infractions committee, where the time it takes to reach a resolution can vary significantly.
Do these allegations mean Harbaugh is definitely heading to the NFL?
No. Or at least, not necessarily.
However, The Athletic reported that potential NCAA issues could factor into Harbaugh’s decision to accept an NFL job, per sources close to him. The outlet has previously reported that Harbaugh would leave to take an NFL job if offered.
For what it’s worth, Harbaugh released a statement saying he planned to coach in Ann Arbor in 2023, though he conceded that “no one knows what the future holds.”
Why would Harbaugh leave for the NFL?
Harbaugh is coaching at his alma mater with excellent job security coming off back-to-back wins against Ohio State and subsequent playoff appearances. That’s why these rumors came as a surprise to many.
To a large degree, though, it makes sense. Harbaugh revised his contract after a disappointing 2020 season to take a roughly $4 million pay cut. After a breakout season last year, many expected Harbaugh to jump to the league after his name was associated with searches in Las Vegas and Minnesota.
He interviewed with the Vikings but did not receive an offer and returned to Michigan, where he was extended again and given a pay raise. With his stock at an all-time high, losing him to the NFL — where Harbaugh is 44-19-1 with an NFC Championship — may just be the cost of doing business for the Wolverines.
Are there any jobs open in the NFL right now?
Yes! In fact, there are three.
Harbaugh has reportedly had contact with representatives from two of them — the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers — and it’s easy to see how Harbaugh could become connected with the third, the Indianapolis Colts.
A quarterback for the Colts from 1994-97, Harbaugh was the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year and a Pro Bowler with the team in 1995. His name sits in the Indianapolis Ring of Honor.
There are several other jobs that could open, as well. Kliff Kingsbury could be on the hot seat in Arizona, while the Houston, Las Vegas and New Orleans jobs (among others) could be ones to watch following Week 18 of the NFL season.
Hey, wait a second. Hasn't this happened before?
It has, in fact.
The current situation at Michigan has drawn quite a few comparisons to Pete Carroll’s departure from USC after the 2009 season. In January 2010, Carroll left the Trojans to become the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. The following June, the program was hit with heavy sanctions from the NCAA that included a two-year postseason ban and the reduction of 30 scholarships.
Carroll denied that the NCAA investigation played a role in his decision to leave.
The two scenarios don’t exactly compare one-to-one, but that hasn’t stopped fans from pointing out the similarities.
The simplest way for Michigan to hang onto Harbaugh is to tell him he would be “pulling a Pete Carroll” and “following in Pete Carroll’s footsteps” and things of that sort https://t.co/ZLeCgjc62Y
— Alex Kirshner (@alex_kirshner) January 6, 2023
The moral of the story? If Harbaugh leaves, whatever team he lands with should be the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2026.
Regardless, will the 'Harbaugh to the NFL' rumors persist until all 32 jobs are filled?
Almost certainly.
