Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where it’s Rivalry Week, the best week of the season:
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Third Quarter
Michigan–Ohio State, With Everything at Stake
The year 2022 has been a great one for college sports rivalries. When Duke and North Carolina meet in the Final Four with Mike Krzyzewski’s career on the line, that’s impossible to top. But nearly eight months later, we have a suitable second place for the most compelling rivalry game of the year with 11–0 Michigan at 11–0 Ohio State (21) on Saturday. Not many of the 117 iterations of The Game that preceded this one have been bigger.
“If we don’t win this game,” said Wolverines offensive lineman Ryan Hayes, “the season doesn’t mean that much.”
The Big Ten East Division title goes to the winner, and with it the opportunity to be a lopsided favorite in the conference championship game Dec. 3. The winner also takes a giant step toward a College Football Playoff berth, while the loser joins the handful of one-loss teams lurking just outside the bracket for the moment.
Heisman Trophy hopes hang in the balance as well, for Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Michigan running back Blake Corum (whose injury status was not addressed in a meaningful way Monday).
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And the coaching rivalry between Jim Harbaugh (22) and Ryan Day (23) has its own subplot. Last year after beating the Buckeyes for the first time in seven tries, Harbaugh delivered a shot to Day, saying, “Sometimes, there are people standing on third base that think they hit a triple, but they didn’t.” That came up Monday during Harbaugh’s press conference, and he dismissed it as “kind of irrelevant” to this year’s game.
But Harbaugh did get appropriately grandiose talking about the matchup Monday in Schembechler Hall. “Superheroes,” was a common refrain, referring to the talent level on both teams. (Wolverines defensive tackle Mazi Smith, asked which superheroes the two teams would be, said Michigan is Batman and the Buckeyes “can be Iron Man or something. They’re cool, too. They’ve got some gadgets and stuff up their sleeve.”)
“The Right Stuff” came up several times, in reference to his team’s character and competitive spirit. “I think you’re going to find we’re made of the right stuff,” Harbaugh said. One can envision a screening of the 1983 movie of the same name for the team later this week, though it should be noted that one of the main subjects of the film, astronaut John Glenn, was an Ohioan.
Interestingly, Harbaugh also said multiple times there is “no hate” in the rivalry, which several people in attendance took to be an indirect commentary on the toxicity with Michigan State (24). We are less than a month removed from the disgraceful attacks by several Spartans upon a couple of Wolverines in the Michigan Stadium tunnel, and it’s safe to say it will be a long time before that is forgotten in Ann Arbor.
Drilling down beyond what’s at stake and the intensity of the rivalry, there are matchups and x-factors that pack a maximum payload.
The Ohio State offense (25) averages the most yards per play in the country at 7.39; the Michigan defense (26) allows the second-fewest yards per play in the country at 4.10. The Buckeyes are third nationally in yards per pass attempt at 9.7; the Wolverines are second nationally in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt at 5.3. Ohio State leads the Big Ten by far in explosive plays; Michigan has allowed the fewest plays of 10-plus yards in the conference.
On the other side of the ball, the Michigan running game (27) has pummeled opponents into submission, leading the Big Ten at 243.8 yards per contest. The Ohio State run defense (28), which was blown off the ball in the Big House last year, has improved its yards allowed per carry from 3.68 to 3.08 under new coordinator Jim Knowles. In what could be a weakness vs. weakness matchup, the Wolverines are not explosive in the passing game, and the Buckeyes are susceptible on the back end, giving up more than 300 passing yards to Maryland and Penn State in the last four games.
Who will be the healthier team (29) could absolutely matter. In addition to Corum’s knee injury suffered during the Illinois game last week, the Wolverines have been without tight end Luke Schoonmaker (30 catches) the past two games. They also held out running back Donovan Edwards (650 yards from scrimmage this year) and sack leader Mike Morris against the Illini. Like Michigan on Saturday, Ohio State was down to its third running back, freshman Dallan Hayden, for much of the game against Maryland.
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And the weather (30) looms as another potential factor. Right now the forecast is for warm temperatures (in the 50s) but a 50% chance of rain. Sloppy conditions would seem to favor the Wolverines, who are built to win a slog if necessary.
Dash pick: Ohio State 28, Michigan 24. Stroud is hard to sack (it’s happened just seven times), and receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are hard to cover (nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns combined). The Michigan secondary is good, but this is a next-level challenge, and the Ohio State wideouts should be able to win enough battles to win the game, the division, ultimately the conference and a spot in the CFP. The Wolverines will have to wait nervously to see their fate on Selection Sunday.
