ANN ARBOR, Mich. — As the calendar flips to March, Michigan finds itself in a precarious position — teetering on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
After Sunday's loss to No. 15 Illinois, which side the Wolverines ultimately fall on will hinge on how they fare during the first week of college basketball's craziest month.
The Wolverines need wins in a hurry to improve their tournament odds, but they won't come easy during a crammed closing slate: Michigan State on Tuesday, Iowa on Thursday and at Ohio State on Sunday.
"I see opportunity for us to shock the world," grad transfer guard DeVante' Jones said of the final three-game stretch. "I know a lot of people are going to feel like it's a tough stretch for us and they don't see us winning. Being one of the leaders of this team, I'm just telling my teammates, 'Do whatever you've got to do to focus. Get your recovery. Watch film. Try not to be on social media as much because we've got to lock in.' These next games are very important for us."
The Wolverines sit at 15-12 overall with an 9-8 record in Big Ten play. As of Monday, they are No. 37 in NET ranking with a 6-11 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. Depending on which bracketologist you follow, Michigan is either sitting on the right or wrong side of the bubble.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi listed the Wolverines among one of the last four teams to receive a bye. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm had them as the first team out of the 68-team field and noted in one of his recent projections that Michigan's current record — three games above .500 — historically hasn't been good enough to make the Big Dance.
While it's not a committee standard, being four games above .500 has been a reliable indicator for selection when it comes to at-large bids. In the 26 tournaments that took place before the COVID-19 pandemic, the only team to get in that didn't meet that mark was Georgia in 2001, which went 16-14 but played a ridiculously tough schedule.
Assuming Michigan wins at least one game in next week's Big Ten tournament, that means it will need to win two of its final three regular-season games. But acting head coach Phil Martelli isn't letting any of that weigh on his players' minds.
"There are people that are going to sit in a room and judge your resume," Martelli said. "Our responsibility is to build that resume. It ends up being a waste of time, particularly for young people to say, 'Well, if we go 2-1, this is going to be good. And if we get to the semifinals of the Big Ten (tournament)' — you have no control. It's always been control the controllable here and what we can control is our effort for this day.
"Any effort, any time that's spent worrying is time away from the game. We have to improve our game and we will get our just rewards."
For Michigan, that starts with shoring up its defense. Against Illinois, the Wolverines struggled to contain the dribble and didn't offer much resistance at the rim. Martelli said the Fighting Illini had 11 blow byes — "which means they got to the front of the rim," he explained — against Michigan's ball-screen defense and Illinois took advantage when players were either "being uncertain" or weren't in the right spot.
Michigan's ball-screen coverage was also problematic in the first meeting against Michigan State, when point guard A.J. Hoggard picked the Wolverines apart and dished out 10 assists. Another challenge with the Spartans is slowing them down and limiting their fast-break opportunities, something the Wolverines failed to do in the January loss when their transition defense was severely lacking.
"We better get our backsides back and build a wall so that we can get settled in," Martelli said. "If they're able to attack and our feet are moving, then they're going to get downhill. But if we're back and you can envision a wall being built, then we're going to be fine."
As Michigan enters the last week of the regular season, Martelli is taking a similar approach as his suspended boss, Juwan Howard, who will miss the rest of the regular season. Tuesday's game against Michigan State is the most important game simply because it's the next one on the schedule.
Jones echoed Martelli, noting the team is focusing on each day and isn't looking ahead. He also acknowledged the sink-or-swim situation Michigan is in, though he wouldn't describe the team as "desperate."
"There's definitely a sense of urgency," Jones said. "I feel like in East Lansing we didn't play how we're supposed to play, especially myself. Coming into Tuesday night, I'm going to be aggressive and look for my teammates, especially looking for Hunt (Hunter Dickinson), looking for Eli (Brooks). This is a revenge game for us.
"Knowing that we need this win, it's a big game for us. I know that the environment, the energy is going to be very high. So that's going to boost us, for sure. This is a game that we've been ready for."
Jones added this season has been a "whirlwind" up to this point. From the lofty preseason expectations to Howard's suspension, Michigan has disappointed. And missing the NCAA Tournament altogether would only add to that.
Still, the Wolverines control their own postseason destiny and they could get some redemption by tipping the tournament scales in their favor with a strong finish.
"I feel like all three games we're playing, we can win all those games," freshman forward Caleb Houstan said. "We're more than capable of doing that. We're excited for this little stretch and just ready to play."
Michigan State at Michigan
— Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. Tuesday, Crisler Center, Ann Arbor
— Records: Michigan State 19-9, 10-7 Big Ten; Michigan 15-12, 9-8
— Outlook: Michigan has lost six of the past eight meetings in the series but have won the last two matchups in Ann Arbor. The Spartans won the first matchup this season, 83-67, on Jan. 29 in East Lansing. ...The game will be a "Maize Out" and the Wolverines will wear 1989 throwback jerseys. ...The game is a makeup from the Jan. 8 contest that was postponed due to Michigan's COVID-19 outbreak.
