Entering last Saturday, few could’ve seen the weekend’s biggest storyline coming: the redemption of the Big Ten West.
Maybe you guessed that Nebraska would handle Michigan State, or that Minnesota would edge out Washington. But Iowa shocking Michigan on the last play of a game in which it was obviously outplayed? Wisconsin using a late score to upset Penn State? Northwestern throwing a huge scare into Indiana? That kind of foresight would’ve taken guts.
That’s exactly the kind of dice-rolling we’re looking for here. Without further ado, here are four bold predictions for the weekend to come in college football.
A hangover game for Florida
The Gators are 4–0, No. 8 in the country, coming off their biggest win in several years, and two weeks away from a date with No. 1 Texas. Is it possible for a team to play back-to-back trap games? Between Missouri Saturday and South Carolina on Oct. 10, the Tigers seem much likelier to pick off coach Jon Sumrall’s bunch. By defensive SP+ (ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s catchall efficiency metric), Missouri is the best defensive team Florida will have faced all season—just ahead of Auburn, and way ahead of Ole Miss. Combine that with the Gators going on the road and, at minimum, a slow start seems in order. Let’s say Florida trails at half, quarterback Aaron Philo throws two interceptions, running back Jadan Baugh is held to a season low in rushing, and the Gators win on a tiebreaking field goal in the last two minutes.
Forde: Jon Sumrall—Florida’s Unlikely Choice—Has ‘the Beast Stirring’
Accounting for opponent, Jeremiah Smith’s most impressive performance of the year so far
Speaking of SP+, here is what the Ohio State wide receiver did against Texas, a team whose defense is ranked five spots above Iowa’s: eight catches, 164 receiving yards, one touchdown. He did that while almost entirely a non-factor in that game’s second half. The Hawkeyes “held” Smith to four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in 2024, but Smith (I’ll try to write this with a straight face) has gotten a better hold of this whole college football thing in the years since. Iowa enters Saturday’s contest giving up 152 passing yards per game. Smith will top that by at least 10% (that’s more than 167 yards), and he’ll add a pair of touchdowns to raise his FBS-leading total to nine.
The week’s most eye-opening blowout: BYU over TCU
How the mighty Horned Frogs have fallen since their Cinderella 2022 season. Since winning the Fiesta Bowl and making it to the national championship game, TCU has gone 5–7, 9–4, 9–4 (with a No. 25 national finish), and is now 2–2 with concerning losses to North Carolina and UCF. The Horned Frogs are only touchdown-ish-underdogs to the Cougars, which seems off base. BYU has beaten a good team (Arizona) and a decent team (Colorado State) by double digits, quarterback Bear Bachmeier is gesturing in the direction of a glow-up (he leads the Big 12 in adjusted yards per attempt), and TCU probably won’t be able to move the ball on the Cougars at will. BYU wins this one 35–10 with the help of three takeaways on defense.
Minnesota swipes the Little Brown Jug
This feels like our biggest leap of faith of the week, even though the Golden Gophers are only modest underdogs. Working in favor of Michigan: Minnesota has not won FBS’s oldest trophy game since 2014, and the Golden Gophers’ advanced metrics lag well behind the Wolverines’. Working in favor of Minnesota: Michigan has not yet played on the road—in ’24, when the Wolverines played a similarly late road opener against Washington, they were outgained by 142 yards in a 27–17 loss. Contrast Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood’s passing statistics at home (10 touchdowns against five interceptions) with his numbers on the road and at neutral sites (six touchdowns against six interceptions). That will level the playing field and propel the Golden Gophers to a 17–14 victory.
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL ON SPORTS ILLUSTRATED
- College Football Watchability Guide: One Reason to Watch Each of Week 5’s 10 Best Games
- Jon Sumrall—Florida’s Unlikely Choice—Has ‘the Beast Stirring’
- CFP Expansion Getting Closer, Players Taking Things Too Far, Week 5 Preview | Others Receiving Votes
- College Football Quarterback Rankings: Quarter-Season Grades for 15 Highly Touted Transfers
