Every time Michael Penix Jr. rips a pass downfield with pulse-quickening pace and astounding accuracy—which is often—a thought bubble rides along with the football: Shouldn’t the NFL love him a little more than it seemingly does?
The Washington Huskies’ quarterback is widely considered the No. 3 or 4 pro prospect at his position—solidly behind the USC Trojans’ Caleb Williams and North Carolina Tar Heels’ Drake Maye, and in competition with the LSU Tigers’ Jayden Daniels to be next off the board. Mock drafts have him slotted anywhere from the top 10 to late second round, with some even predicting that the Oregon Ducks’ Bo Nix or Michigan Wolverines’ J.J. McCarthy will get picked ahead of Penix.
NFL scouts don’t dislike him by any stretch, noting his overall improvement and the performances he’s put together over the past two seasons. “It’s pretty amazing to see the evolution of someone’s game from first playing time to now, because the guy has gotten better and better,” one scout says. “It’s cool. It speaks to his ability to embrace coaching and learn and work on weakness.”
But in a business where bad quarterback decisions have massive consequences, some scouts don’t necessarily adore the Heisman Trophy runner-up, who will lead the undefeated Huskies against undefeated Michigan on Monday night in the College Football Playoff championship game.
John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
They have their reasons: a problematic injury history, including two ACL tears; his age (he will be 24 in the spring, which could be interpreted as a limitation on further improvement); a slim lower body; a slightly sidewinding, left-handed delivery; a lack of a running element to his game; some difficulty with shorter throws; and uncertainty regarding how much of his success can be attributed to an elite receiver group (particularly Rome Odunze) and an elite scheme under coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
One scout says he could see Penix being drafted in the 20s but gave him a third-round grade: “He throws an awesome deep ball … but I gave him the comparison to a three-point shooter—he will struggle with short to intermediate [passes].”
While lauding Penix’s downfield prowess, another scout echoed concerns about the shorter passing game: “His release point is super low. That’s why the short and intermediate game is spotty. He has a fastball throw, not a lot of touch.”
Says a third NFL exec: “For me, personally, some of the Penix hype is a little overblown. He’s talented and improved a ton since Indiana. Injuries need to be looked into. The thing that concerns me is first- and second-level accuracy. He’s not that mobile. The deep ball and anticipation is impressive … but top 10 is a little rich.”
So, yes, there are fair questions and concerns. But … have you seen Penix spin it?
College football hasn’t had a quarterback who can throw the bomb with aplomb like Penix in a while. He can, if necessary, dink and dunk—but nobody is better at hunting the big chunks. He is the first player to record consecutive seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards since Patrick Mahomes did it at Texas Tech in 2015 and ’16—which is pretty good company to keep. Penix leads the nation in completions of 20 yards or more with 73 and is second (for now) in completions of 30-plus with 35 to Daniels’s 36.
“He has a super-strong arm and can make shot plays down the field,” one NFL scouting director says. “He’s the best in the country in that regard. Their scheme is good. Odunze is good. He’s mobile in the pocket but not a runner—he can extend plays, escape and rip it downfield.”
Washington has thrown the ball 523 times this season, most in the nation, yet allowed only 11 sacks—just one for every 48 pass attempts. Part of the reason is an excellent offensive line, but part is also attributable to Penix. His ability to read defenses and elude rushers—even if he’s not a runner in the traditional sense—has kept him a step ahead of those trying to tackle him. Texas failed to sack Penix a single time in the Sugar Bowl and rarely even put him on the ground.
What Penix did last week to Texas in the CFP semifinal was jaw-dropping, throwing for 430 yards with completions of 77 and 52 yards, plus additional downfield passes of 32, 29 and 24 yards. That performance got the attention and admiration of Michigan coach and former NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh.
“The ‘it’ factor that he has, he’s just got it,” Harbaugh said. “Next, just, like, no conscience. He’s got no conscience when he’s throwing one of those balls into the tightest window and the confidence that he can put it in there and his receivers are going to make a play. I mean, that's scary good.
“As good as he is in the pocket, he’s deadly when he gets out of the pocket, too, in either direction. It’s formidable. It’s elite. The next thing I would say is the real clock he has in his head. I mean, he gets in trouble, boom, it's going to a check-down. He just sees the field, knows where everybody is at all times.”
The best approach, for now, is to enjoy Michael Penix Jr. the college superstar. The pros will get their chance in the spring to pore over his medical reports and deconstruct his game, but Monday night is one more opportunity to see a guy whose career has been a wild ride through peaks and valleys.
Penix was a three-star recruit from Tampa who originally committed to Butch Jones and the Tennessee Volunteers in the spring of 2017. He was not the team’s most heralded quarterback commitment at that time—that was Adrian Martinez. But when Jones was fired later that year, everything changed. Martinez decommitted and wound up at Nebraska, while new coach Jeremy Pruitt told Penix not to bother making an official visit—a decision that, as they say, did not age well.
Nick Sheridan, a former Tennessee analyst who helped recruit Penix under Jones, had subsequently gotten an assistant job with the Indiana Hoosiers. Sheridan redoubled his efforts to bring Penix to Bloomington. Florida State also entered the picture, but Penix decided to go where he felt genuinely wanted and joined the Hoosiers.
After a redshirt season in 2018, Penix was greeted by DeBoer, the Hoosiers’ new offensive coordinator. Penix became the starter, and, though his next two seasons were dotted with injuries, he was part of Indiana’s best two-year run of the 21st century, going 14–7 in ‘19 and ’20.
The 2021 season was another matter entirely, with Penix playing poorly, taking a beating and trying to nurse his battered body through practices and games. He played in the first five games of the season and then shut it down, with the Hoosiers going winless from that point on. Penix contemplated quitting football.
But then DeBoer got the job at Washington. He hired Sheridan as his tight ends coach. Familiar faces and a fun offense lured Penix to the Pacific Northwest to give the game one more try.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
“Me being at Indiana allowed me to get here,” Penix said in Houston on Saturday. “I feel like if I didn’t go to Indiana, probably wouldn’t have met Coach DeBoer and probably wouldn’t be here. My whole path, I wouldn’t change any of it for anything.”
Despite being reenergized, Penix still had to win the starting job. Dylan Morris was a returning starter and Sam Huard was a talented recruit from a family of Washington quarterback royalty. Nothing was guaranteed by DeBoer.
But it didn’t take long for Penix to prove himself, both as a football player and a leader. Although DeBoer left the quarterback competition open well into August 2022, Penix had the support of his fellow players. Grubb said Penix received about 105 out of 110 votes when the team elected captains before that season.
The returns were immediate and emphatic. Penix led the nation in passing yards in 2022 and guided the Huskies to an 11–2 record. Then he chose to come back and scale even greater heights this season.
“I think he has this underlying desire to be the best,” Grubb said. “I think that he felt like what happened last year wasn't a fluke. In his mind he always felt like he was that quarterback. So to come out and prove that he was even better than what he did last year and that he is the best quarterback in the country, I think that he's a very driven young man. Underneath it all, his competitive nature drives him to be the best all the time.
“He really is a guy that just likes to kind of be the underdog, and people keep telling him he’s not the Heisman Trophy winner. We’re not supposed to be here as a football team. He just keeps showing up and doing it on the biggest stage.”
After Monday night, the next stage Michael Penix walks across figures to be at the NFL draft in Detroit. Some smart franchise shouldn’t make him wait very long on draft night to do it.
Sports Illustrated senior writer Albert Breer contributed reporting to this story.
