Mexico's president criticized Moody's ratings service after it downgraded the Mexican government's debt outlook to 'negative.' Moody's cited concerns that newly approved laws in Mexico could weaken the judiciary branch and checks and balances. While Mexico's overall credit rating remained at Baa2, the increased government debt was highlighted as a risk. Additionally, there were mentions of the potential need for the government to provide more financial support to the state-owned oil company, Pemex.
President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed skepticism towards ratings agencies, suggesting a bias against the economic policies implemented by her party since 2018. Under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the government initiated significant financial transfers to Pemex, undertook large infrastructure projects, and introduced cash handout programs, resulting in federal budget deficits reaching about 6% of Mexico's GDP in 2024.
The ongoing efforts to reform the judiciary system, including making federal judges subject to election, have raised concerns about potential political influence and threats to judicial independence. Critics fear that drug cartels could exploit these changes to manipulate judicial processes.
Moody's highlighted the challenges of fiscal consolidation due to deteriorating debt affordability and increased government spending rigidity. The agency warned that the constitutional overhaul could weaken Mexico's checks and balances, impacting the country's economic and fiscal stability. These changes have the potential to significantly alter the business environment in Mexico.
As a result of these developments and other factors, the Mexican peso has depreciated to around 20.50 to $1 in recent days, reflecting market concerns about the country's economic outlook.
