Tense Elections in Mexico and U.S. Endanger Democracy

Tony Payan, director of the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy (Credit: Courtesy of the Baker Institute)

This year Mexico and the United States expect particularly tense presidential elections—and for the first time in decades, experts from both nations anticipate complaints of election fraud and potential violence at the polls. As former U.S. President Donald Trump did after losing office in 2020, Mexico’s incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has insisted he will not accept defeat for his hand-chosen successor, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, even though a broad coalition of opposition parties have joined together to support a popular alternative candidate, Senator Xóchitl Gálvez. 

Tony Payan, director of the Center for the United States and Mexico, says he fears there will be violence and even politically motivated assassinations during the hard-fought elections south of the border. Payan, who is based at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, provided Texas Observer Senior Editor Lise Olsen with insights into those races and other cross-border issues in 2024 from his center’s latest annual forecast.