The Met Office has predicted that 2023 is set to be a hotter year than 2022.
The annual global temperature forecast for next year has been released by the forecaster. The world's average climate is is set to rise between 1.08C and 1.32C above the average for the pre-industrial period from 1850-1900.
This is the tenth year in a row that Earth's global mean temperature climbed at least 1C above these pre-industrial levels.
The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the 2023 global forecast, said this is down to cool sea temperatures colliding with warmer climates.
Dr Dunstone explained: "The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.
"La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.”
He added: “For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
"This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
The series of warmest years began back in 2014, when global temperatures began to exceed 1C above those seen in the pre-industrial period.
The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable events such as large volcanic eruptions, which would cause a temporary cooling.
Prof. Adam Scaife, Head of Long-range Prediction at the Met Office, added: “So far 2016 has been the warmest year in the observational record which began in 1850. 2016 was an El Niño year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific.
"Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”
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