The UK could be in for some "changeable" weather towards the end of this month as a major weather incident unfolds, the Met Office has confirmed.
Experts have explained that the Polar Vortex has now recovered after a minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January. The Polar Vortex is a circulation of winds up to 30 miles above the Earth, and its strength impacts the jet stream - a fast-moving ribbon of air around six miles above the earth, which drives weather systems towards the UK from the Atlantic.
Sometimes the Polar Vortex can break down altogether, which is known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming and has been linked to many cold snaps in recent years, including 2018's infamous 'Beast from the East'. The latest forecasts show that another "major" Sudden Stratospheric Warming is now likely to take place from mid-February.
READ MORE: Windy but mild weather forecast for the North East over the weekend
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said that there is now over an 80% chance of a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurring. He explained that while the impact of this will become clearer nearer the time, its effect on UK weather will "most likely" be felt in late February and into March.
A major Sudden Stratospheric Warming such as the one that is forecast can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over the UK, which can cause cold, dry weather across Northern Europe. But the Met Office pointed out: "However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs."
The experts also stressed that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming "does not always equate to a 'Beast from the East' type scenario". While this is what happened in 2018, the Met Office pointed out that there was also a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2019 that had little impact on the weather.
The long-range forecast for mid-February currently suggests that "broadly changeable weather" is the most likely scenario with wind and rain at times, particularly in the North West, and temperatures expected to be around average. The Met Office has said it will be updating forecasts as the Sudden Stratospheric Warming unfolds.
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