All eyes are on the weekend as forecasters try to determine what impact the sudden stratospheric warming over the North Pole earlier this month will have on our weather in the UK. The latest Met Office update has looked at three scenarios and believe the most likely could bring "disruptive snow" to parts of the UK.
It is too early to determine which areas would be affected but the changes will be happening over the weekend and to the start of next week.
It was revealed early in February that a sudden stratospheric warming was taking place high up in the atmosphere up to 50km above earth. The weather condition makes the jet stream "meander" more which in turn can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe.
A previous sudden stratospheric warming that lead to the so-called Beast from the East that hit the UK at the start of March 2018, but forecasters initially said it was too early to say what the effect will be this year. A similar warming in 2019 didn't bring the same snow.
In the latest Met Office update, forecaster Aidan McGivern said: "Through the rest of the weekend, that cold air will try to filter its way further south. But how far south it gets and what that means for our weather into next week, all hinges on developments on the other side of the Atlantic and what's taking place over Greenland.
"Now, during the weekend, low pressure over the mid north Atlantic will start to feed all this energy northwards and will allow high pressure over the UK to migrate towards Greenland. At the same time, there's a highly amplified, very perturbed jet stream. It loops around an area of low and then pushes all the way back up to the north of the high pressure that developing over Greenland, allowing this northerly feed that allowing the colder weather to push into the north of the UK by the end of Saturday."
He outlined the three scenarios:
1. At the moment this is thought to be an unlikely scenario, but the jet stream could be amplified through the weekend and the start of next week that would allow the cold air to fully spread across the whole of the UK with some snow showers for northern and eastern parts.
2. Another pattern thought to be "unlikely" but the whole pattern of the jet stream could become more "floppy" and "less loppy", the energy from the jet stream would allow low pressure to be pushed in from the west bringing "wetter, windier and milder" conditions by the start of next week. Means the northerly winds will be pushed out of the way.
3. The most likely outcome at the moment is "something in the middle" of both. The jet stream will be highly amplified and south shifted meaning northerly winds will hit the UK by the end of the weekend pushing cold weather into the north and east of the UK, while low pressure tried to feed in from the southwest.
Aiden says that if scenario three happens: "The low pressure from the south and the west is likely to push in and mix with the cold at the at the north and east, leading to some disruptive snow in places by the start of next week."
Meanwhile, for the rest of this week high pressure is expected to stay in charge which means it will remain dry.
The Met Office forecast for Wales says: "High pressure will keep many areas dry, albeit often rather cloudy, into the weekend. Sunny intervals at times, with overnight frosts possible under any prolonged clear spells. Feeling rather chilly."
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