The Met Office has given its verdict on reports that temperatures in the UK are set to soar to around 35C next month - caused by ‘African plumes’ sending the mercury in Europe rising. The UK has been facing very unsettled weather in the last week or so with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms sweeping in.
But some reports have suggested that we could be in for a dramatic change soon - with forecasters saying African plume will bring drier conditions with the summer weather finally arriving in earnest.
The Met Office said that at this stage it is too early to give very specific forecasts for June but added that: “Most summers here in the UK we see a spell of hotter weather, with temperatures getting above 30C so it is isn’t unusual.” In its contingency forecast for May to July it says: “This Outlook suggests the chances of heatwaves are higher than normal.”
James Madden, from Exacta Weather, said: “A number of African plumes are also likely from later in August and into September, and very early indications and some strong indicators are for a warm to hot September this year.
“The peak of these heat surges in June and July could see maximum temperatures ranging in the low to mid 30s, and the late summer/August heatwave could sign off summer 2023 with temperatures ranging a notch or two higher than this.”
It comes as the UK is set to see drier weather over the next few days, with highs of 20C expected on Saturday. According to the BBC, a weak, high-pressure ridge is set to build across the UK today and tomorrow, leading to drier weather with some isolated showers. Overnight fog is expected due to lighter winds.
The longer term Met Office forecast for the start of June is saying that there will be ‘above average’ temperatures. For the period from May 27 - June 10 it says: “A north-south split is the most likely scenario through the bulk of this period, with further spells of rain most likely affecting southern areas, whilst northern areas are more likely to be drier than average overall. That said, the drier conditions in the north could well extend countrywide; the confidence in the boundary between the two regimes is very low. Temperatures will most probably remain above average, although tempered along North Sea coasts.”
The Met Office contingency forecast from May to July says there is a 35 per cent chance it will be hotter than average - 1.8 times the normal chance of this happening. On the issue of if we could have a heatwave, the Met Office said: “An increase in the likelihood of warmer than normal conditions is consistent with our warming climate and this Outlook suggests the chances of heatwaves are higher than normal, but a range of conditions much less extreme than heatwaves are also possible.
"The increased chance of hot conditions could just as easily reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than heatwave conditions specifically. The Outlook does not guarantee prolonged hot weather and does not imply continuous heatwave conditions.”
