Welcome to Selection Sunday week! Sports Illustrated will be publishing daily updates of its projected men’s NCAA tournament field to keep you up to date on where things stand heading into the selection show. So as automatic bids get locked up, bubble teams fight for their seat at the table and top teams compete for seeding, keep an eye out for all of the latest updates from SI.
From a bubble standpoint, Thursday was wild. In most years, many bubble decisions essentially sort themselves out with teams on the fringes losing games to make way for something close to a consensus of at most a couple of teams fighting for the last couple of spots. So far this year, the teams already “in” have been rock solid, but teams that were “out” are making a case to push by them. That’s particularly bad news for bubble teams sitting at home after early exits, like Indiana State and Oklahoma.
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Some particularly notable things from Thursday:
- The biggest winner of the day was Providence, which added another elite win to its résumé by beating Creighton on a neutral floor. That’s now six Quad 1 wins for the Friars, giving them a fairly potent case to be in the dance. A win-loss record inflated by 10 Quad 4 wins makes things dicey though.
- The biggest loser also came from the Big East: Villanova. The Wildcats likely needed to beat Marquette to get in, but instead lost in overtime. The strengthening of the bubble isn’t doing the Wildcats any favors, either. At 18–15 with three Quad 3 losses, Kyle Neptune’s team should miss the tournament.
- Virginia and Mississippi State entered the day in our field and won, so they hold onto their respective spots. Neither win was especially pretty though, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that both teams could miss out if other bubble teams get big wins.
- Pittsburgh and Ohio State are making dark-horse cases for selection. The Panthers are in better shape than the Buckeyes, and could make things really interesting by upsetting North Carolina. Ohio State likely needs more than just the Illinois win, but somehow the Buckeyes are in the conversation after firing Chris Holtmann midseason.
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- In Vegas, Colorado and New Mexico each held onto their spots in the field with late-night wins. The Lobos got a desperately needed Quad 1 victory over Boise State, while Colorado inched closer to a spot in the tournament by beating the Utah Utes. Quad 1 opportunities await each team Friday at their respective tournaments.
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Seton Hall Pirates
TCU Horned Frogs
St. John’s Red Storm
Virginia Cavaliers
Last Four In:
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Oklahoma Sooners
Colorado Buffaloes
New Mexico Lobos
First Four Out:
Providence Friars
Texas A&M Aggies
Indiana State Sycamores
Pittsburgh Panthers
Next Four Out:
Villanova Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Kansas State Wildcats
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Key bubble games Friday:
- Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers, 1 p.m. ET
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels, 7 p.m. ET
- Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kentucky Wildcats, 7 p.m. ET
- Providence Friars vs. Marquette Golden Eagles, 8 p.m. ET
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State Wolfpack, 9:30 p.m. ET
- Colorado Buffaloes vs. Washington State Cougars, 10:30 p.m. ET
- New Mexico Lobos vs. Colorado State Rams, 11:59 p.m. ET
It’s hard to make sweeping declarations of teams’ statuses without knowing the full picture, but Friday’s theme feels like “win-and-in” games. Mississippi State can’t miss out with a win over Tennessee, and it’s hard to imagine a Providence team with a seventh Quad 1 win (beating Marquette) getting left out either. Same goes for Texas A&M, should the Aggies beat Kentucky. Even Pitt would be hard to leave out should it upset North Carolina.
But where are those bids coming from? Perhaps New Mexico, if the Lobos were to lose to Colorado State, though Richard Pitino’s club does have elite performance metrics. Colorado is in a similar position playing Washington State: While not a bad loss, things could get dicey if other teams are adding big wins to their résumés. Virginia may be too far north of the cut line to remove, though playing an NIT-bound NC State rather than Duke means more potential résumé damage should it lose. Oklahoma can’t feel good either sitting idly by as other teams on the bubble get chances to land haymakers. It didn’t help matters that one potential chance for the bubble to grow, Dayton winning the A-10, was eliminated. Any more bid-stealers would be bad news for the bubble.
The bottom line here: The formula right now is inexact. The best advice to any bubble team: keep winning.
** indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid
Midwest Region
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Wagner Seahawks**/Grambling Tigers*
No. 8 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 McNeese State Cowboys**
No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs**
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders* vs. No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders**
East Region
No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 VCU Rams*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars**
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels** vs. No. 11 James Madison Dukes**
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Akron Zips*
No. 7 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits**
South Region
No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Longwood Lancers**
No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs**
No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 11 Colorado Buffaloes/New Mexico Lobos
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles**
No. 7 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 10 St. John’s Red Storm
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 Sam Houston State BearKats*
West Region
No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers* vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters**/Montana State Bobcats**
No. 8 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 9 Michigan State Spartans
No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 Princeton Tigers*
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 6 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs/Oklahoma Sooners
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies**
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
