Melbourne Will Overtake Sydney As Australia’s Most Populated City We’re Gonna Need More Trams

Australia’s most liveable and obviously best city is predicted to become the most populated too as Melbourne’s population growth looks likely to outpace Sydney’s. New data from the Centre of Population shows Melbourne will overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populated city within the decade, likely by 2031-32. Melbourne’s population is expected to hit 6.1 million people by 2032, up from its current 5 million. There are currently 5.3 million people living in Sydney, which is predicted to sit at about 6 million in 2032. NSW will remain the most populated state though, rising from 8.1 million people to 9.1 million by 2032. Victoria is expected to rise from 6.6 million people to 7.9 million — a higher growth rate. This huge boost is expected even despite the fact Melbourne’s population growth actually went backwards during 2020 and 2021 as a result of the pandemic. Melburnians spent 262 days in lockdown and its population growth dropped 0.2% between 2018-19 and 2020-21. Melbourne’s net migration was -53,000 in 2020-21, but jumped to +49,000 in 2021-22, indicating it’s making some fast gains. Demographers predict our net migration will recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. NSW’s net migration also nose-dived during the pandemic and is expected to recover by 2025-26. Queensland on the other hand didn’t really see a drop in net migration, mainly because it relies on inflow from interstate — which continued during COVID — rather than international immigration. The state’s population is expected to grow significantly from 5.2 million in 2021 to 6.1 million in 2032-33. WA will likely see the next-highest growth this decade and reach 3.2 million by 2032.

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Moving down the list, SA will grow by about 200,000 people, ACT by about 100,000 people, and NT and Tassie by a few tens of thousands. To be fair, their populations are all extremely small in comparison to NSW and Vic. Well done to Melbourne and our economy blah blah, but fml all I can think about is how packed the trains will be in 10 years and how long I’ll have to wait for a coffee.