In just a few short years, Melbourne could once again overtake Sydney and become Australia’s largest city.
Forecasts by research company McCrindle predict Victoria’s capital will become Australia’s largest city – population-wise – by perhaps as early as 2027.
Company founder Mark McCrindle, a social researcher and demographer, said based off his predictions, the date Melbourne will clinch the title is 7 September 2030.
Speaking on Melbourne radio station 3AW on Friday, Mr McCrindle explained there are a few reasons as to why Sydney will be bumped to number two.
“Melbourne has got the two factors that Sydney doesn’t have,” he said. “Firstly, affordability. And house prices as steep as they are in Melbourne are significantly below Sydney.
Mr McCrindle said liveability was another important population driver.
“You know, for seven of the prior 10 years of this decade, we had Melbourne as the world’s most liveable city,” he said.
Melbourne could become victim of own its success
Mr McCrindle said even with the population growth and subsequent traffic on the roads, Melbourne has still managed to remain liveable, but it could become a “victim of its own success” as population puts stresses on infrastructure in the future.
International migration and people from Australia moving interstate will also push Melbourne’s growth.
Melbourne’s population trails Sydney by fewer than 100,000 people, but Mr McCrindle warned it would be a little while longer before Victoria becomes the most populous state in Australia.
Victoria is a capital-centric state, with three quarters of Victorians living in Melbourne. In New South Wales, meanwhile, only two thirds of people in live in Sydney, he explained.
Sydney hasn’t always been the most populous city in Australia.
McCrindle Research points out that thanks to the gold rush, Melbourne was Australia’s largest city from the 1850s to the 1890s.
Not living the ‘Sydney life’
In the same vein as liveability, Mr McCrindle said the majority of the people in Sydney aren’t lapping up the best it has to offer.
He said people on the outskirts of the city were faced with long commutes and big mortgages.
“They’re not really experiencing that Sydney lifestyle. They’re saying, ‘you know what, we could move a bit further west and head to a regional city or maybe to Brissy [Brisbane] or interstate. Let’s do that’,” he said.
“Melbourne hasn’t managed that same side of it. It’s still got the lifestyle and the public transport infrastructure to sustain a bit of that growth. So that’s the challenge of Sydney, you’re still stuck with high prices, even if you don’t get the benefit of the harbour or the beaches.”
