The latest 2023 NFL mock draft has arrived from ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr., and it’s a doozy. Kiper is projecting four tight ends to be picked in the first round for the first time in NFL history — and he says the New Orleans Saints should be one of the teams investing in a premier talent at the position.
In this scenario, Kiper likes the Saints to pick colossal Georgia Bulldogs tight end Darnell Washington. Here’s what he wrote of the match at No. 29 overall:
“Yes, this makes four tight ends in the first round. The Saints, who got this pick as part of the Broncos hiring Sean Payton, could go in several directions here. I could see arguments for defensive line, cornerback or safety. But they also have a huge hole at tight end. Juwan Johnson was fine last season — 42 catches, seven touchdowns — but they could upgrade with Washington, who is one of the most physically gifted and talented tight ends I’ve scouted. People who are 6-foot-7, 250 pounds are not supposed to move as fluidly as he does.
The question is production: Washington had 45 catches and three touchdowns in three seasons for the Bulldogs, and Brock Bowers, a top 2024 prospect, put up much more impressive numbers. I think a team will bet on Washington’s talent in the top 40 picks, but you do wonder why he wasn’t used more for the back-to-back national champs. New Orleans likely will have a new starting quarterback, so let’s get that passer some help.”
So we’ve got some things to unpack here. For one thing, and we’re repeating this point, there have never been more than three tight ends taken off the board in the first round. It’s not a highly-valued position: teams are usually targeting quarterbacks, wide receivers, pass rushers, and offensive linemen in the first frame of picks. Positions like tight end, running back, linebacker, and safety are often second-round interests.
And for another — Washington isn’t going to outproduce Johnson as a receiver in his first year on the team. Part of the devaluation with tight ends is the notoriously steep learning curve for the position. NFL prospects basically pick up two different playbooks as blockers and receivers, and it frequently takes two or three years before they’re ready to make an immediate impact in either area. Washington is a good prospect, and there’s no questioning his physical tools. But if he couldn’t produce on Georgia’s loaded roster against top-tier competition, how is he going to unseat a fourth-year pro in his rookie year?
I’m a bigger fan of the player picked at No. 29 by the Denver Broncos in Kiper’s last 2023 mock draft, before that selection was traded to the Saints: Notre Dame defensive end Isaiah Foskey. He’s built like Marcus Davenport at 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds but brings proven production (22 sacks and five fumbles the last two years) against a quality level of competition at a blueblood college program. Another better pick could be the prospect taken at No. 30, right after the Saints, in this updated projection — Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. He’s undersized by NFL standards but compensates for it by winning with leverage and a lightning-fast first step, and both of those qualities will translate. The New Orleans defensive line needs more help than their tight ends corps. Hopefully Kiper’s next projection reflects that.
