Mega-poll predicts disaster for Tories – but reality could be even worse

Rishi Sunak at the Tory party conference in October. The Telegraph said the poll had been commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

For Conservative MPs opening their Daily Telegraph on Monday morning it was a distinctly gloomy start to the week: a mega-poll suggesting they are heading for a crashing general election defeat. And this was arguably an optimistic take.

For one thing, some pollsters believe the YouGov conclusion of a 120-seat Labour majority could be an underestimate. Additionally, the poll’s organisers seem intent on using its findings to push the party further to the right on immigration, a move that will dismay many centrist Tories, and seems unlikely to stop the rot.