“It doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always get in.” Sue Paling – wryly quoting a wise friend – is one of many undecided voters in Whitby. The landlady of the historic Black Horse pub on Church Street in the centre of the medieval North Yorkshire fishing town is representative of a disproportionate chunk of women nationally who are not sure where to place their vote on 4 July.
About 15% of voters are still undecided, according to the research consultancy More in Common. This is not unusual a month before a general election – but what makes it different is the significant proportion who backed the Conservatives in 2019, said the organisation’s UK director, Luke Tryl.
What is even more interesting is the profile of these undecided voters: more likely to be women, owning their own home in towns and suburbs, with an average age of 61, less likely to have a degree, more likely to have voted for Brexit.
These are over-represented in the constituency of Scarborough and Whitby and, when looking at Labour’s list of targeted seats, the seat actually “becomes the seat which gives Labour an overall majority” based on current polling, Tryl said.
Rather than being a “true” undecided, “Whitby woman” is really a “disgruntled Conservative”, and the challenge for Rishi Sunak’s party would be motivating her to vote at all, he added. “The parallel with 1997 is: it wasn’t just that the Tories lost lots of votes to Labour, it was that reliable Conservative voters stayed at home.”.
While “Whitby woman” may sound like something from a political marketing manual, the concept appeared to ring true when the Guardian spent time in the constituency talking to this demographic about how they plan to vote – if they decide to head to the ballot box at all.
At the Black Horse, a tiny, two-room pub serving Whitby ales and gins and “Yapas” – Yorkshire tapas of pork pies and cheese boards – the fare is more local than the clientele, most of whom are holidaymakers visiting for the rugged coastal beauty, the fishing and smuggling heritage and, of course, the town’s connection with Bram Stoker’s Dracula.
A rise in holiday lets and Airbnbs has driven up house prices and pushed local people – especially young adults – out of the town. This has led to a sense of inner conflict in a friendly town where tourists are welcomed more than they are bemoaned.
House prices in Whitby are well above the average for the region, at nearly £260,0000, but salaries are lower than the national average. Many people work seasonal jobs in hospitality and other minimum wage roles. For local businesses, attracting workers who live nearby is becoming increasingly tough.
“Staffing shortages are a real problem,” said Paling. “Not enough people live here to service the jobs. Whitby is like an island – people don’t travel here for work. It’s not worth it because of the travel costs.”
Though she had personally moved away for a while when she was younger, she returned because “there’s nowhere like Whitby”.
Paling’s mother, Maeve Paling, who for 10 years also used to work at the pub, can be found most lunchtimes popping in for a half pint.
Unlike her daughter, Maeve is decided – she always votes Conservative because “the only times we’ve gone bankrupt are when Labour are in power”. She describes herself as “not very political” but will be sure to cast her ballot next month since women fought for the right to do so.
“The days of good leaders are over,” she complained, adding that Sunak was strong on the economy but held little personal appeal, unlike Boris Johnson. “He played the fool but was actually quite clever,” she said, a view voiced – sometimes in hushed tones – by many women in the town.
Maeve believes Labour will win the election despite the party’s leader, Keir Starmer, appearing to have had “a personality removal operation”.
It is a common refrain in Whitby. Lots of 2019 voters only really backed the Tories out of fear that the previous Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, would “drag us back to the dark ages”, as one woman in Scarborough put it. But while they do not hold the same level of dislike for Starmer, among some people he has virtually no recognition at all.
“I’ve heard the name,” said Claire Lavagna, who works at the popular Sherlocks coffee shop on Flowergate in Whitby. Sunak was also “forgettable”, she said.
Lots of people admitted not giving the election much thought so far though issues such as the underfunding of the NHS were at the forefront of women’s minds given that they are more likely to work or have worked in the NHS and tended to shoulder the responsibility of care for elderly parents.
The shortage of dentists was a huge talking point – the nearest NHS dentist taking on new patients is now almost 20 miles away from Whitby, in Scarborough. It is the only one in the constituency of more than 72,000 people.
Those who require medical treatment, especially surgery, are often sent 30 miles to the James Cook hospital in Middlesbrough. The nearest A&E is 25 minutes’ drive away and known for some of the longest waits in the UK.
“I’m not knocking the NHS but it’s frustrating,” said 26-year-old Katie Hayton, who though younger than the Whitby woman profile, is a former Tory backer – a decision based on how her parents voted – now considering a switch to Labour. She grew up in Whitby and works at Botham’s, a traditional bakery and tea room. Her boyfriend is a fisher and they rent privately in the town.
She is waiting for a cornea transplant after an infection caused damage to her eye and will need to travel nearly 50 miles to York for the surgery. “But what can you do?”
She added: “I just get on, go to work, pay my dues. Life’s rubbish, you have to book a holiday to have something to look forward to.” Though she can’t even do that while on the transplant list.
Labour support in Scarborough and Whitby is staunch, and their candidate, Alison Hume, a children’s television screenwriter, is popular and from the area, which voters said was important. In addition, many said they felt it was “time for a change” – one of a number of signs the constituency could be slowly turning red.
In May Labour’s David Skaith became the first York and North Yorkshire mayor, prompting some surprise – though the turnout was less than 30% across the combined authority area. While data has not been released on how each ward voted, ballot box sampling (not a precise science) suggested Scarborough and Whitby voted Labour.
Efforts by the Tories to capture these voters do not seem to be working. Hairdresser Lisa Fox, who is also undecided, said she was completely turned off by Sunak’s pledge to bring back national service, saying she would “break my boys’ legs before I let them join the army”.
And, though immigration is often spoken about as a key issue for voters, it did not register as a major concern in Whitby. In fact, members of Whitby Women’s Institute (WI) were “disgusted” when a leaflet came through their door from the young, ambitious Conservative candidate Roberto Weeden-Sanz, who has been parachuted in by the party and is promising to be tough on immigration.
Some WI members said they felt insulted by what they saw as lazy, “lowest common denominator” characterisations of their demographic being old-fashioned and xenophobic. Lynn Walker, a retired PA who voted Conservative last election, said: “We took in a lot of Ukrainians here … I’ll never vote Tory again.”
They all volunteered in the community and felt mounting frustration that none of the issues they cared about were being addressed by politicians.
Their list included, but was not limited to, a “spiral of deprivation”, what they saw as the mishandling of the closure of a local secondary school leading to a loss of good teachers to other areas, a pressing need for more social housing, “diabolical” public transport and the need to rely on a car. Plus investment being directed to the wrong places (such as £10m being spent on a Maritime Hub at the harbour that “we don’t need”), nothing to aspire to for young people and the fact the town relies so heavily on ageing volunteers to keep it functioning.
They lamented what they said was a lack of action from their outgoing Tory MP, Robert Goodwill (or “Robert Goodgrief” as some WI women called him), their MP since 2005, who served in David Cameron’s cabinet. He voted against measures to reduce sewage dumping in 2021, riling up sea swimmers and those who cared more broadly about the environment.
“It is no wonder people are feeling disaffected,” said Heather Relf, a retired teacher for the deaf. “It doesn’t matter how much we protest.” She added: “There’s a sense that no one listens anyway, so why bother?”
