Leeanne Enoch will become Queensland’s minister for treaty amid a cabinet reshuffle set to be announced on Thursday.
A Quandamooka woman from North Stradbroke Island, Enoch was the first Indigenous woman to be elected to the state parliament in 2015 and became housing minister in 2020.
It comes after the state government passed the path to treaty bill last week which will lay the groundwork for reconciliation between First Nations people and the Queensland government.
Guardian Australia has confirmed the state’s environment minister, Meaghan Scanlon, will replace Enoch as housing minister.
Senior government sources have described her as a rising star in the Labor caucus. A 24-year-old Scanlon made history in 2017 when she became the youngest woman elected to state parliament.
Attorney-general, Shannon Fentiman, and health minister, Yvette D’Ath, are also expected to swap positions in the cabinet changes that target three critical portfolios: health, housing and youth justice.
Ministers and staffers were caught off-guard by the changes, with the news reportedly delivered to D’Ath minutes before she was scheduled to front reporters at a press conference on Tuesday about the state’s troubled DNA laboratory.
No backbenchers will be promoted in the reshuffle.
Responding to the news, the deputy opposition leader, Jarrod Bleijie, said the Palaszczuk government is “officially in a full-blown state of chaos and crisis”.
But political analyst at Griffith University, associate professor Paul Williams, believes the reshuffle is necessary to try to stop criticism of the government in policy areas.
“I’m thinking the premier is thinking she needs to blunt opposition and media attack, because these are pretty big Achilles heels that she will take into the next election,” Williams said.
“But there’s no guarantee that it will succeed because the issues and the problems run deeper than ministerial control.”
Palaszczuk first came to power in 2015 and has won three elections. The reshuffle comes amid polling showing support for Palaszczuk has fallen to its lowest approval rating since her 2015 victory.
Williams said there was a risk in the premier restricting her cabinet representation to long-serving ministers.
“It lends itself to that old joke about reshuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” he said. “Tired governments do well by bringing in talent off the backbench.”
Pandanus Petter, research fellow at Griffith University’s school of governance and public policy, said it’s unclear how much attention voters pay to cabinet reshuffles.
“It’s very tempting to frame this in terms of what it might mean for a future election,” Petter said.
“But often people who are going to change their mind [make decisions] based on how they perceive the performance at the time and how their economic conditions are going and if they think a change will help them.”
Petter said cabinet reshuffles aren’t uncommon. He said Fentiman’s rumoured move to the health portfolio may be a result of her strong performance as attorney general.
“It could be that they want Shannon Fentiman to prove her chops in a hard portfolio that’s under attack because she’s done well as attorney general. It won’t be clear until it’s all finalised,” he said.
Williams said the move could be a win-win for the Labor government. He said D’Ath was perceived well in her former role as attorney general, so a return to the role would play to her strengths.
“Shannon Fentiman in health will be formidable and Yvette D’Ath back as the attorney general will be formidable,” he said.
“But given we’re 18 months out from an election, this may not be the last cabinet reshuffle.
“The 2024 [election] will be Labor’s toughest since 2012. [The premier] has to throw caution to the wind and embrace change rather than stability.”
