MINNEAPOLIS — Mayo Clinic's COVID-19 model predicts Minnesota's record wave of coronavirus infections will peak Jan. 26 and could be followed by a rapid decline based on other states.
A quick peak to Minnesota's fifth pandemic wave would be welcome news in a state that on Tuesday reported another 10,651 coronavirus infections and 29 COVID-19 deaths. Tuesday's report, which updated pandemic activity in Minnesota through 4 a.m. Friday, included the deaths of three Minnesotans younger than 50 and raised the state's toll in the pandemic to exactly 11,000.
State health leaders cautioned that hospitalizations and deaths could continue to increase for a few weeks after any peak, because they are delayed consequences of infections.
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota have increased this month from 1,329 on Jan. 2 to 1,610 on Monday. However, the cases requiring intensive care have declined in that period from 283 to 248 — reflecting the lower rate of severe illness caused by the omicron variant.
COVID-19, influenza and other medical concerns combined to fill 977 of 1,013 available adult intensive care beds in Minnesota on Monday — a 96% occupancy rate that is high, but not as bad as late last year when the number of open ICU beds was in the teens.
A peak in infections next week would still mean several more days of record-setting pandemic activity, which is being fueled by the fast-spreading omicron variant. The state's positivity rate of diagnostic testing reached 22.2% in the seven-day period ending Jan. 7.
Minnesota's per capita infection rate is at its highest point in the two-year-long pandemic — despite the rising popularity of at-home rapid antigen COVID-19 tests that are not reported to the state. However, Minnesota's infection rate last week ranked only 38th highest compared with other states that had earlier exposure to omicron. However, some of the hardest-hit states earlier this month are starting to see infection rates decline.
"That's the silver lining," said Matt Binnicker, Mayo's director of clinical virology. "It's a crazy roller coaster ride of a fast rise to the peak, then a quick drop-off from there."
Mayo's modeling forecast is similar to a projection by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington state that predicted Minnesota's peak already occurred on Monday.
State leaders are hopeful that vaccination progress in Minnesota blunted the severity of the omicron wave. More than 4 million Minnesotans have received at least first doses of COVID-19 vaccine, or more than 77% of eligible residents 5 and older, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Of those who are fully vaccinated, more than half have received booster doses, which help to reduce risk of severe COVID-19, hospitalization and death. Minnesota ranks second among states for its booster rate.
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