The New South Wales treasurer, Matt Kean, is said to be considering a move to Canberra if the Perrottet government suffers a defeat on Saturday week in the state election.
Figures close to Kean told Guardian Australia he has floated the idea and is exploring possible avenues into federal parliament but his decision would depend on whether the Coalition lost in NSW on 25 March and by what margin, as this would determine how long it would be out of office in NSW.
The outspoken Liberal is the kingmaker of the largest faction in NSW, the moderates, and has been a leading advocate of faster action on the climate emergency, measures to protect the environment and social reforms.
Although unlikely political travellers, Kean and the federal opposition leader, Peter Dutton, appear to have forged a relationship that transcends factional differences.
A special briefing on Aukus in Canberra on Monday night prevented Dutton from launching Kean’s campaign to hold the state seat of Hornsby in person. Instead Dutton put in an appearance by video link.
A few weeks earlier Kean told the ABC he would welcome Dutton’s appearance on the campaign trail, describing him as an “outstanding leader”.
“He’s going to do a good job leading the federal Coalition and I’d certainly welcome him on the campaign trail in NSW,” Kean said.
Dutton has likewise declined invitations to criticise Kean. In an interview with 2GB’s Ray Hadley last year, Dutton chose a berating from the shock jock on Kean’s decision to close coal-fired power stations earlier than planned rather than criticising the NSW treasurer, whom Hadley called “Malcolm Turnbull-lite”.
Kean told Guardian Australia his intention was “to remain as treasurer of NSW” but he did not address what would happen if the Coalition lost office.
The easiest path into the federal parliament would be to replace Senator Marise Payne, the most senior NSW senator and a fellow moderate, but Kean is said not to be interested in the upper house.
The two federal members whose seats cover Hornsby on Sydney’s upper north shore are Julian Leeser in Berowra and Paul Fletcher in Bradfield. Both are not likely to retire soon.
But Kean is said to be prepared to take a chance on a seat held by one of the so-called teal independents, with North Sydney being more likely than Pittwater or Warringah.
Kean is coordinating the defence of Liberal-held state seats under threat from teals in the state campaign, giving him an insight into how these community-led campaigns work.
At 41, he would bring both youth and experience to the federal team, having served 12 years in state politics with many more years as a backroom powerbroker in the Young Liberals and the party.
Kean would also likely bring a more moderate perspective to some of the key issues confronting the federal Liberals, such as the climate crisis, and allow them to creditably pivot from the scepticism on renewable energy that was the hallmark of the Abbott and Morrison years.
He could also help cement Dutton’s power base in NSW, as he has done for the NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, and his predecessor, Gladys Berejiklian.
This week he spearheaded the Liberal attacks on Helen Conway, the independent running in the state seat of North Shore, which overlaps substantially with the federal seat of North Sydney.
